2/5 4.1k effective stack size for this hand.

Villain - MAWG winning player but fairly passive. Looks for players to dump to him mostly. That said, clearly more capable than many in the game.

Hero - Young White Guy, has been more aggressive than the rest of the table. Considered capable.

Truth be told I think I misapplied a concept that is new to me in this hand and I would like your input on the line.

OTTH

V opens MP $20
5 callers
Hero 3! TcTd $150
V 4! $425
the field folds
Hero calls

I dont think Villain has many, if any, 4! bluffs even if he should due to our depth and the dead money. That said, because we're so deep and there's the dead money in there I think TT is an ok call here mostly looking to set mine.

Flop ($1050): Qd 8d Qs

Hero checks
Villain $300
Hero $600
Villain Calls

This is where the misapplied concept comes in. I've done some study and seen some training videos about paired boards, particularly with a flush draw, where the solver favors min raising a pretty wide range of hands. Gutters, backdoor flush draws with overs, hands like I have here TT, and its super nutted hands as well. I also think it's an interesting line when facing a down bet in general.

However, this is a 4! pot and I think that's where my thought process about the min raise is murky. I'm more likely to have AQ and KQ than he his but he has more combinations of overpairs and if the board bricks out I think we're in trouble. That said, notably, we are still ahead of AK and it's a nice way to try to deny equity vs that hand. Also we have a diamond in our hand, which is relevant as we look to play turns.

Turn ($2250): 3c
Hero bets $1050

This is one of the brickiest brick cards in the deck and leaves me in a tough spot. Diamonds, 9,T,J, would have all been good cards for us. I don't love my sizing here. It'll leave me with $2025 which will be under a half pot size bet on the river if we get called. That said, it does look like value. I don't know. I've put myself in a very tenuous spot at best. Very open to thoughts and suggestions.

Villain ended up folding which I can only assume means we were up against AK. We got lucky. Feel free to lambaste me.

I like the call of the four bet pre so deep, like you said you're frequently getting stacks when you hit your set and V likely has a very narrow range that you can take advantage of. If V has a better 4 bet range with some bluffs in here, I think a call becomes worse.

It's an interesting spot, because I think you're right, V has very few queens, especially because 2/5 players will almost never 4! aq here. Given that, I like your line theoretically. I think a good V would have some aqo here, and if they didn't have aqo in their range, they should check flop since you would have a fair amount of queens and they would have none. I think you likely have or should have some flatted aa here as well at least some time.

In practice, I don't imagine V in this situation is thinking that tho, and is probably betting range here, which I agree is likely qq+ and ak. Assuming that's correct, I like your min raise. It looks strong, you're getting a great price on your bluff, most people aren't bluffing too much in four bet pots, and I think V would fold ak here. Despite the odds they're getting, hitting an a or k frequently is still no good.

Once they call your min bet, I like shutting down. Your line looks strong, stronger than it actually is obviously, and if V calls your minraise with aa or kk, I don't love the chances of getting them to fold. If you're going to continue, I think you should only continue when you turn equity. If you're bluffing this combo, you're likely overbluffing, which is fine as an exploit if v is overfolding, but I doubt they are. I think if you're targeting ak here, it's a mistake, barring a very specific read. I don't think v ends up with ak on the turn very often, except akdd, and the occasional time they do, getting ak to fold isn't even a big win here, you're folding out what, 16% equity? I guess I like the play if you think there's a big likelihood of V folding aa and kk here, but given that you think they folded ak, doesn't seem like it was your plan.

When they call turn, I think you have to shut down any non 10 or diamond river.

Interesting line overall!

I would assume if your solver solutions were from single raised pots, then ranges are going to be considerably wider than this spot.

That being said I agree that a lot of the conditions in terms of range advantage seem to be in your favor. Also not sure I am a huge fan of the click back. Could probably go slightly bigger but I didn't look at SPR too closely for future betting if we size slightly bigger.

Agree that turning equity might help you differentiate bluffs here once we get to the turn and that the 3c isn't a great barrel, though maybe that makes it seem scarier to villain.

I would call BS if I was V. You have no Q here calling $425 pre, but it’s nice to believe that you would flat a 4! with AQ pre.

In theory that deep I would assume both of them have AQ some non-0 percent of the time but in practice V is probably never 4-bet bluffing AQ there in a live game.

We probably tend to have less as the caller in theory as suited combos would make the best flats given playability and overall equity where as bluffing villain can pick either or.

Any way either way I think it's hard for KK to continue here. Not impossible but difficult. AA would be easier given blockers. I would be curious if you honestly thought you could call down here with both this deep given the line.

Also OP I think AK is a better candidate for this you you flat it here which I think you probably should with some frequency.

It better blocks AA, KK and probably has the same if not slightly less equity than TT vs villain's range.

So I think it's fair to think I'm more heavily weighted toward pairs because I'm OOP in this pot and if ever there is a 5! bluff range it's when we're sitting this deep and AQ makes more sense as a 5! bluff than a call I think. However, because of the depth here a lot of hands can make sense as calls. It's much, much wider than normal. AQ, KQs I think are reasonable continues as a call.

Yes I think AK makes sense as well and I agree flatting with AK in this spot at some frequency is good. Honestly we could cap our whole range, never 5!, and call with everything.

My concern if I had exactly AK here would be ranging my opponent. I think having AK exactly might mean our opponent has more Qs than if we have paired hands like we have here. Is that a crazy thought? By having pairs we unblock AA and KK combos but also we can comfortably include AK into that 4! range as well. When we have AK we block enough combos of AA, KK, and AK that maybe we have to start including Qs at some frequency into that range? Not sure, curious what you think.

It doesn't make sense to me. If you thought villain could 4bet AQ then AK also blocks that more than TT. If you mean QQ specifically then AK and TT block that equally (obviously).

We block 50% of AA/KK and only block 5/16 = 31% of AK combos.
With blocking effects AK is still 50% more likely than AA and KK combined (6 combos vs 9).

The other nice part is that when you have AK and force a chop to fold you're paying for less equity that was already yours to begin with when you have TT and your opponent has AK. Admittedly TT runs the risk of over folding and giving up a lot of it's equity so folding AK may still be good regardless of your greater equity advantage.

I have no idea why that would change things in that way. Our blocking effects or lack their of don't change what hands villain does or doesn't choose to 4bet.

Makes sense to me. Thank you for the reply!

Non-zero % of time ~ 0% of the time.

And why would AQ raise this flop and scare out AA/KK which form a chunk of V’s $425 range? So many players in my pool won’t make it $425 with even AK there when so deep. I think OP made V fold KK+ here with his line, which is exploitably good. Which is why betting this flop against a capable player is a mistake in V’s shoes.

Majority of 2-5 population is just not willing to stack off with KK/AA here and will just think “he must have a Q, maybe not but too expensive to find out, let’s wait for a better spot, f*** AA”

As more bets go in the narrower ranges get and thus the mor pronounced smaller parts of the ranges are.

Theoretically I assume because there is still so much money behind and AA/KK might not triple or try to get all in as frequently here. Also it's typically easier to bluff in marrow range spots when we have more equity so bluffing earlier in the hand makes more sense.

I agree that the player probably shouldn't have 4 bet pre or if he did this particular flop might have been better as a check. Heck if your 4 bet narrows your range that much there are probably many flops that should begin with a check.