MP is a whale who's been running an estimated 70% VPIP with maybe a 5% PFR. His range pre is basically infinite and I assume he can have premiums as a limp/call occasionally.

Villain is very capable of making moves and raising flops with a high frequency with a bunch of marginal garbage.

I'm having a hard time believing he would lead pot with a boat and then check this river, but it's tough to come up with bluffs he can have.

We're 7 handed and MP has $600 to start the hand and Hero covers.

Hero AhKc in BTN 2/5 live

UTG limps, MP limps, Hero raises to $30, UTG folds, MP calls

Flop ($72) Qs9h8h
MP checks, Hero checks

Turn ($72) Qh
MP bets $75, Hero calls

River ($222) Kh
MP checks, Hero bets $150, MP raises to $500 ALL IN

Grunch from title alone: If he's an aggro fish, you need to embrace the variance here and call him down.

Post grunch edit: Reading the details doesn't change my mind. If he has KQ, nh. He basically never has the other boats and unlikely given action to have JhTh, and he could have a ton of random Qs with a heart.

Ended up finding a fold here and Villain of course tables the 64o.

I think over-folding to c/r river lines might be a leak of mine especially when playing though a bit of a downswing.

Agreed given this and your other post - Even though you could lose by calling the river jam, you should be ahead of aggro/fish on the river most of the time = call. Downswings stink - Try to take a break if possible and come back with your A game.

Can you explain why he can never have a hand like 99 or 88? He made a procedural check to us on the flop, and then starts leading into us on the turn. I agree that the river line here is definitely odd, but if he’s taking this line with KQ, then perhaps he could take it with other boats as well?


Also, I’m a little suspicious that he would ever check raise jam a hand like Qx with a heart here. Doesn’t really make sense given that our calling range will crush those hands. Seems like a more logical hand to bluff catch against us or perhaps catch us trying to value bet too thinly.


Imo, this seems like a spot where we’re bluff catching. Since we have the ace of hearts, our villain is extremely polarized, and if we think that he’s capable of making a move like this often enough (obviously after being shown 64, he clearly was) then this could be a good bluff catching hand. If we don’t believe he’s that much of a maniac and doesn’t bluff frequently enough, then it’s an easy fold, as we beat no value hands.

I mean, vs standard Vs, folding moderate value hands to river raises is the right play. That line is almost always the perceived nuts for all but aggro players at the LLSNL level. Some fishy Vs don't understand relative hand strength, so you have to call their river raises because they could have (for example) trips or a lower flush on the board above. And sometimes you have to call because the guy is aggro and his story doesn't make sense. In this case, both seem to apply.

If he were an average reg though, unless you had a weak image, a fold would be fine here.

With flush draw on flop, a set, straight or 2P on flop should bet for value and equity denial, right? And V checked. Could be a trap but until proven otherwise, check on flop = no set/no straight/no 2P.

Villain made a procedural check, which means he was checking to the previous aggressor. This check doesn’t give any information as to the strength of his hand as he’ll do this with his entire range. Our check on the other hand says a lot about our range, as we’ve effectively announced we don’t have a hand that wants to go for 3 streets of value.

The guy is aggro. He's not checking 99 or 88 twice, especially when the board flushes out. We just check back OTR way too often. He could occasionally do this with KQ because he backed into it, so he'll think it's disguised. I doubt he does it often, but it's possible.

The guy is an aggro fish. Don't mirror image your approach to his. He doesn't think about ranges the way you do. For aggro fish, raising is way sexier than calling and he may even think something dumb like "he can never have a boat because I block Qs."

For a good player, yes this raise is super polarized. For an aggro fish, it's likely linear and includes not only too many bluffs but also "value hands" that aren't really value.

I guess if he has the reasoning of not checking to us given how frequently we check back otr when he has a set, I would imagine he would just use the same reasoning for KQ since both hands want that value, disguised or not.


But as for not mirroring my own approach, I totally agree, and this is probably something I struggle with. I can see what you mean about him possibly having Qx with a heart type hand.

I don't think the check OTF tells us *nothing,* because aggro fish will donk sometimes, but I also don't think it eliminates those hands from his range.
What I think does eliminate them from his range is the river check.

His range OTT is miles wide, as we have shown weakness, so he's got all the bluffs, all the missed flop C/Rs, and all the moderate value that he's over valuing.

Agreed, Garick. Thanks.