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2/5 Nut flush draw pretty deep 3bet pot 2/5 Nut flush draw pretty deep 3bet pot

11-27-2017 , 12:31 PM
Hero - $2100 - In for about $1400 - so up about $700 - hasn't been too out of line - 3bet 1 hand a while ago with AT over UTG+2 $20 open and 2 callers to $135 - UTG+2 calls - 943 - $150 call - 5 - check check - 5 check check he has 77 and it is good. Would of double barreled lots of turns - but 5h not a good turn card.

Villain - $1500 - indian guy who isn't terrible but probably isn't very good. He limp called xx - 4 other limpers - I go $50 on BTN with AKo - 4 callers - $200 pot - QJxcc - checks around - Tr turn - he leads $105 - I flat - 3r turn - he goes $175 - I go $600 he folds - says he folded k9 (I don't think he ever has a flush draw - I block the Ac). I don't believe that he has k9 but if that's what he did have he shouldn't be limp calling $50. Maybe I should raise turn? Or min raise river? He seems to over play hands too - Had TT and someone goes $100 on 349r flop - 1 caller - and he goes $450 - they both fold and he shows.

Other weird players at the table too - so it was a pretty good late night table. They call pre but than fold.

3 limps including Villian
BTN $500 - nitty bad reg goes $30 - he is always 100BB deep - doesn't sit deep.
SB fish calls - he calls everything
Hero goes $100 with AQ - I was planning on folding if BTN jams - he is never jamming with worse than QQ - maybe bad logic?
Villain over calls LOL
BTN folds - figured he would
SB calls.

$345ish
567

I lead $150
Villain goes $525 and has $950ish left
SB folds
Hero??

Any one like a check on this flop?
I would think best line is Jam - I probably have fold equity.
2/5 Nut flush draw pretty deep 3bet pot Quote
11-27-2017 , 12:44 PM
I think c-betting this flop is fine.

I call turn. There's 1,020 in the pot. You're getting 3:1 direct odds to see the turn and you have 9 outs to the nuts. You need to extract $300 to justify the call, or you need to see a free river. I think the math justifies this call. But I think it's fair to say you're behind unless you think he makes this play with something like K X or an OESD, which seems super unlikely.
2/5 Nut flush draw pretty deep 3bet pot Quote
11-27-2017 , 12:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheHammer24
I think c-betting this flop is fine.

I call turn. There's 1,020 in the pot. You're getting 3:1 direct odds to see the turn and you have 8 outs to the nuts. You need to extract $300 to justify the call, or you need to see a free river. I think the math justifies this call. But I think it's fair to say you're behind unless you think he makes this play with something like K X or an OESD, which seems super unlikely.
Technically speaking, he has 8 outs to improve to an Ace high flush, but 0 outs to improve to the nuts. He could be drawing stone dead..
2/5 Nut flush draw pretty deep 3bet pot Quote
11-27-2017 , 12:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtm1208
Technically speaking, he has 8 outs to improve to an Ace high flush, but 0 outs to improve to the nuts. He could be drawing stone dead..
Ha. Yes. Villain could have flopped a straight flush. I think you can treat the flush as the nuts here though.
2/5 Nut flush draw pretty deep 3bet pot Quote
11-27-2017 , 01:03 PM
DJ I'd check flop. I think you have lots of equity but little FE. AP I'm not really sure what the right play is. I can see merit in all 3 options.
2/5 Nut flush draw pretty deep 3bet pot Quote
11-27-2017 , 01:25 PM
I don't like this spot I would think we have about 25% equity, so there's not much more implied odds if we hit and I wouldn't think we have any FE at all.

FWIW the buttons a nit? I don't really like 3betting nits with AQ from the blinds
2/5 Nut flush draw pretty deep 3bet pot Quote
11-27-2017 , 01:57 PM
Deffo check flop. I think its a range check.

Bigger 3b pre.
2/5 Nut flush draw pretty deep 3bet pot Quote
11-27-2017 , 02:09 PM
I don't like the sizing of your raise preflop, I think you should have sized it more along the lines of $130 - $150, if you elect to raise here. Calling is not a bad option either.

Checking is a good, probably better option, but Continuing is fine, especially with the Ah, but I think you should be betting more in this spot also, around 60 - 65% pot (which I would do with over-pairs as well). So a bet of $200 - $225, which I think would give you more folds from the V's than the bet you made and more information against raises.

As played, you''re against a pretty wide range and facing a raise of $375 with $645 in the pot (total pot is $1020 including his raise). Available options include: 1) calling, 2)folding, or 3)raising/All-In.

1)To break even with a call you're going to need to win 26.88% of the time on the turn or turn & river if you think it'll go check/check. Seems to me that it's highly unlikely the turn will go check/check, so you are really just seeing the turn for the additional $375. You're equity on just the turn is going to be around 18-19% in most cases. Needing 26.88%, getting 18%...rule out the option of Calling.

2) Against a wide open range Hero could be up against any of the following: sets, straights, flushes, overpairs, 2 pair, stone bluffs, pair+sfd, etc. If you're not able to narrow his range down, folding is totally a fine option in this hand. As you can see, against any of those hands, your equity isn't really that good.

Against a set: 27% equity,
against a straight: 36% equity,
flush: 28.69% equity
pair+sfd 35%,
88 & 99 with a heart: 37% & 43%
TT-JJ with heart & w/o heart: 48.59% & 51.21%
2 pair: 35%

3) Raising/Jamming. Totally depends if you think you have fold equity here. You're betting $1,325 to win $2,345. For this Fold equity jam to be profitable, you're hoping he folds over 56% of the time. If you re-raise all in, you're effectively saying you have the Ace high flush, AAhx, or AhXx (not realistically sure if the Straight flush is in your range since you 3-bet preflop OOP).

When you're opponent raises your flop c-bet, he's repping a strong range including: straights, flushes, sets, 2 pair, Overpair, etc. I don't think a set or a flush is folding to a jam, and a straight is probably gonna stack off as well. So you are targeting the villain to fold his 2 pair and worse hands. You're probably getting a fold out of 88-JJ, even if they have a heart, and two pair is on the fence, but would those hands have raised your c-bet...

If you jam, you're opponent is going to need 28.8% equity break even with a call. Against hands only containing the Ah (both "nutted" and non-nutted), a set has 55%, straight has 39%, flush has 50%, 2 pair is 43.31%, TT-JJ no heart is 24%, 88hx-99hx 39% - 32.5%. If he thinks there is even a chance you don't have the Ace high flush, every single hand is pretty much calling profitably with the exception of TT-JJ no heart...

Based on this information, I don't think this board texture is a good one to realize fold equity and jam, even with the Ah in your hand. The strong hands possible are much more in your opponent's range than yours and you don't seem to have a solid read on his range. The equity seems to run out in his favor in almost every spot, too. There's also the small but possible chance that you're drawing dead too...

Based on my thoughts on your 3 options available, it seems you're left with 3 crummy options but folding seems to be the best of them. Just sucks to fold the Ah flush draw on this board.

Last edited by jtm1208; 11-27-2017 at 02:20 PM.
2/5 Nut flush draw pretty deep 3bet pot Quote
11-27-2017 , 02:38 PM
I think I'd only bet this flop with like KK or AA with heart (planning to gii), a flush, or sometimes random unpaired no-heart hands (like AKss). Specifically, I don't want to be in the spot you're in.

I don't think you have much fold equity on a shove, and you're in bad shape against a lot of his range. I'm torn between calling and folding, but I think you can call.
2/5 Nut flush draw pretty deep 3bet pot Quote
11-28-2017 , 05:09 PM
Results

Spoiler:
I tank shoved - He tanked for about 3 minutes and folded. My range here looks like AA - KK with a heart. The way he plays his 99 and TT I figured he could be raising to see where he is at. Also this board looks really bad for a lot of my 3bet range so checking this board wouldn't of been the worst option. He may of felt I was weak with my under half pot bet.

It is extremely hard to flop a flush - and I had a blocker. Even if I was wrong - I had equity. This is a high variance spot but calling is defiantly not the play. If we call - we have to hit a hand, and we just won't enough - and he if he shoves turn we have to fold. Even if we hit the flush on the turn, it's going to kill my action.

Folding flop is decent - but against this particular player - I was happy with my shove even if I lost.
2/5 Nut flush draw pretty deep 3bet pot Quote
11-28-2017 , 06:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by djevans
Results

Spoiler:
I tank shoved - He tanked for about 3 minutes and folded. My range here looks like AA - KK with a heart. The way he plays his 99 and TT I figured he could be raising to see where he is at. Also this board looks really bad for a lot of my 3bet range so checking this board wouldn't of been the worst option. He may of felt I was weak with my under half pot bet.

It is extremely hard to flop a flush - and I had a blocker. Even if I was wrong - I had equity. This is a high variance spot but calling is defiantly not the play. If we call - we have to hit a hand, and we just won't enough - and he if he shoves turn we have to fold. Even if we hit the flush on the turn, it's going to kill my action.

Folding flop is decent - but against this particular player - I was happy with my shove even if I lost.
Cool Hand and good read. I'm assuming, like you, that he was in the 99-TT range. Must have some solid history with this villain to discount some of the many other hands he could have
2/5 Nut flush draw pretty deep 3bet pot Quote

      
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