First - Monikrazy, I sincerely thank you for helping me think this hand thru. When I'm pushing back, it's because I'm testing you and myself as to what is truly the best thought process in this situation.
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Originally Posted by monikrazy
I gave you the mathematical answer, you are just fixated on wanting to raise, even when call is clearly a reasonable option, even standard.
your answers haven't given me any math. I see no EV calcs.
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It's very easy to get stacks in after calling with SPR of <2 in the turn.
but that's absolutely what I don't want to happen. I want to scoop early or fold in this hand bc of the low odds I can beat both boards. This V **might** make his 100 bet with a bare K and I'm ahead, but that would be out of character for him. I think he must be better.
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Even in regular NL, standard strategy is not to overprotect pocket pairs by shoving too early.
agreed for regular NL, but doesn't always apply with split pots. I want all of the pot, not half of it bc all of a small pot is a 3X larger win than a chop of a big pot.
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Hero has 92.8% equity vs 6x on kq3 board.
Hero has 9.46% equity vs 6x on k66 board.
Villain almost never bets 50% pot with KK. Trying to maximize fold equity against 6x seems like way too narrow a focus. And even if Hero had a better 6, he would often want to call the flop and close the trap later. Or call and see if any additional players come along, etc.
Now we're talking math. Thanks. The remaining players have picked up cards to pitch them or has gone back to phone which is his standard fold posture. This is a heads up pot.
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Now we could try to solve for how often villain's weakest 6x hands fold to a jam, but I doubt villain folds 6x more than 20-25% at most. And since villain has the same number of 6x and kx hands in range, we should optimize our line against the part we make the most money against which is non 6s.
by far, V's most likely hand is 6X. I've watched him play for years. In fact, I'll do a half reveal, he was playing 6X. How does that change your thinking?
With 6 strong X, if I call, he shoves next.
6 mid X, I'm not sure
6 weak X, maybe I have FE.