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2-5 NL A-Q nut flush draw on flop - do I raise? 2-5 NL A-Q nut flush draw on flop - do I raise?

11-18-2012 , 04:03 PM
Villain 1 - TAG- has $700 pretty solid. Just sat down for an hour.
Villain 2 - LAG - has $800 good player. Likes to see flops.
Hero - tight, sometimes nit. has some card sense. $600

Villain 1 in early seat limps
Villain 2 in mid seat limps
Hero has AQ in late position and raises to $25. both call

Flop
7810

Villain 1 bets $70
Villain 2 calls
I raise to $150. Villain 1 folds. Villain2 reraises to All in.

Hero?
2-5 NL A-Q nut flush draw on flop - do I raise? Quote
11-18-2012 , 04:17 PM
Villain 1 is solid and donk bets into you for almost full pot. You have to ask yourself what hands he is doing this with. I would say strong draws and nutted hands, it is never air or top pair. When you raise, you do it with assumptive fold equity, which you clearly don't have here considering the strength villain has shown. Also, you only minraise, which isn't chasing any draws. So your raise is terrible.

On the flop, I advocate a call since you have implied odds. Now that you've raised and villain shoves on you, you need to assume you're behind and calculate your outs. I flat flop in position since I'm never assuming villain folds flop.
2-5 NL A-Q nut flush draw on flop - do I raise? Quote
11-18-2012 , 04:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Accomplice
Villain 1 is solid and donk bets into you for almost full pot. You have to ask yourself what hands he is doing this with. I would say strong draws and nutted hands, it is never air or top pair. When you raise, you do it with assumptive fold equity, which you clearly don't have here considering the strength villain has shown. Also, you only minraise, which isn't chasing any draws. So your raise is terrible.

On the flop, I advocate a call since you have implied odds. Now that you've raised and villain shoves on you, you need to assume you're behind and calculate your outs. I flat flop in position since I'm never assuming villain folds flop.
Are you talking about villain 1 or villain 2. Despite your assertion Villain 1 folded to my raise.
2-5 NL A-Q nut flush draw on flop - do I raise? Quote
11-18-2012 , 04:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by newbiepoker
Are you talking about villain 1 or villain 2. Despite your assertion Villain 1 folded to my raise.
Eh, sorry, misread OP. Thought Villain 1 shoved.
Nevertheless, your raise is even worse now that you minraised over a better and a caller.
Calling is even better now that you have even better odds to hit your hand.

Villain 2 likely flopped a straight.
2-5 NL A-Q nut flush draw on flop - do I raise? Quote
11-18-2012 , 04:37 PM
OTF you should have definitely called. This flop smacks everyone's range and you have little FE. If you think you have FE, your raise should have been much bigger. You have direct odds and implied odds to draw to the nuts which has a good chance of getting paid off if it hits, given villains' ranges with this board texture.

As played, this is a super easy fold. You are drawing only to diamonds and are not getting the price, esp since some of your outs may not be clean. If he is doing this with a worse FD, it is almost certainly a combo draw which is probably ahead of you. Although it is hard to put him on any hand that would flat the donk originally before 4-bet shoving, he probably has the nut straight here a lot, sets, or a hand like 9dTd or KdTd.
2-5 NL A-Q nut flush draw on flop - do I raise? Quote
11-18-2012 , 04:38 PM
I would just call on the flop. You really don't have much fold equity on this board against 2 players, especially V2 calls the donk bet on the flop.

As played after being faced with the allin you're $475 to win $840, which means you need about 36% equity to call. If he's doing this strictly with 2P+ you have ~33% equity. If you add in the pair+FDs and FD's+gutshots you have ~37% equity. It looks like it's a marginal situation, but folding might be the best play.
2-5 NL A-Q nut flush draw on flop - do I raise? Quote
11-18-2012 , 04:42 PM
Agree with others, flat the flop. The semi-bluff raise really only works if you have reason to believe villain might have a weak or marginal hand that he will fold to a raise, or if you think your overcards are outs to hands with which he'll get it in. When he donks $70 into $80 or so, he looks really strong, and on that board your overcards are no good. But as played, you're now getting almost exactly 2 to 1, which is pretty much what you need to call, so you might as well call.
2-5 NL A-Q nut flush draw on flop - do I raise? Quote
11-18-2012 , 04:49 PM
Don't raise small vs. aggressive players unless trying to induce. What exactly was the point of essentially min-raising the flop? Either call the flop (fine option), or make it $250 or so.

If you think about the game deeper, whether to call or raise has a lot to do with how your opponent thinks about the game. A few of the things that you would want to take into account:

1. Would they 3-bet shove worse naked FDs? (not too many combos)
2. Do they lead strong made hands/strong draws on wet boards MW (good players do this) or do they lead marginal made hands?
3. What's their limping range?
4. Do they tend to fold too much or call too much?

If all I had to go on was what you gave in your OP, I would just call, as I think TAGs (if you are indeed correctly classifying which after 1 hour who knows) a) limp narrow ranges in EP b) lead strong ranges in these type of situations c) You are very likely to get at least one more bet if you hit the turn d) if V2 likes to see flops with wide ranges, you are much more likely to flush/flush him, so you actually want him to stay in the hand.

When would I raise here? If I thought people had a wide range PF and were known to lead for 'information' with intention of folding to pressure, or if I thought they would take the b/3b line with worse draws.

As played, call:

Board: 7d 8d Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.014% 36.66% 00.35% 6170 59.50 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 62.986% 62.63% 00.35% 10541 59.50 { 9c9d, 9d9h, 9d9s, 88-77, JdTd, Jd9d, T9s, 87s }
2-5 NL A-Q nut flush draw on flop - do I raise? Quote
11-18-2012 , 06:31 PM
Agree with setsy, the min raise here is silly, call the flop or raise more to (a) actually gain some fold equity and (b) set yourself up to raise/call any all-in.
2-5 NL A-Q nut flush draw on flop - do I raise? Quote
11-19-2012 , 12:43 AM
Problem with raising more is that I would become pot committed. If I put in a raise to approximately 3X the bet (say $210 in stead of $150), then I would have committed 40% of my stack into the pot. Aren't I pot committed at this point then?

I hate being pot committed for any draws.
2-5 NL A-Q nut flush draw on flop - do I raise? Quote
11-19-2012 , 12:51 AM
I agree with flatting here being best.
If you are going to raise I probally make it really big so I know I will be getting the right price to call a shove. If I am raising its to $270 or something.
BTW, its great for your image to get it in sometimes with a strong draw.
2-5 NL A-Q nut flush draw on flop - do I raise? Quote
11-19-2012 , 01:10 AM
OP, are you new to NL with experience in limit?

Flop min raise reads like a limit move.
2-5 NL A-Q nut flush draw on flop - do I raise? Quote
11-19-2012 , 01:33 AM
Everyone else has already said it, flat the flop. Your hand will be very disguised if you do hit your flush.

I wouldn't raise after getting donked into 3 ways for a pot sized bet on a draw heavy board like that, this is a very strong play. If they had bet smaller liker 40-50 then I would advocate a raise however this is not the case. Your sizing of the raise is pretty bad as well because you need to generate some fold equity for this move to be +ev.
2-5 NL A-Q nut flush draw on flop - do I raise? Quote
11-19-2012 , 02:08 AM
In general, I love to raise with flush draws, but do so with authority...ie at least 3x the donk bet. Also, prior to raising, I know what I'm going to do if an opponent shoves on me (which, in this case with your little bet you really have to fold).

That being said, in this spot, I just flat. There are a few reasons for this:

1) I have position, so it will be easy for me to control how much money goes in the pot on future streets.

2) I have the nut draw, and it's likely that V2 also has a diamond draw

3) I'm getting great odds to call, it's possible someone has a monster, in which case I get paid if I hit

4) It's possible another villain could shove over top with straight flush draw, aka someone I could have felted if I call and diamond hits..but if he raises here (as you found out) i'm in bad shape..could be up against 9dTd or TdJd.
2-5 NL A-Q nut flush draw on flop - do I raise? Quote
11-19-2012 , 02:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by newbiepoker
I hate being pot committed for any draws.
LoL @ this. Every hand is a drawing hand except the nuts and even the nuts has to draw blanks on the turn/river in order to hold up (especially on this board).
2-5 NL A-Q nut flush draw on flop - do I raise? Quote
11-20-2012 , 02:33 PM
One of the most profitable moves at live low stakes is semibluffing in my opinion. This is not a good spot for that, but you should get comfortable putting a lot of chips in the middle with a draw. You can win by them folding or by you hitting your hand, it is also great for your image when you do have a hand. One thing I look for against opponents is how aggressive they are with draws, if I see someone just check calling with an open ended straight flush draw then later they raise me on a draw heavy board, well its obvious they have 2 pair or a set 100% of the time.
2-5 NL A-Q nut flush draw on flop - do I raise? Quote
11-20-2012 , 08:50 PM
raise the flop to 240
lol at min raise

as played fold
2-5 NL A-Q nut flush draw on flop - do I raise? Quote

      
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