2/5 NL
Effective stacks $500.

Hero's been at table for two orbits. Image is tight with balanced aggression and passivity. Villain is old guy. Villain has been active in the time since Hero sat down. Appears to be on the loose side. Hero has seen one good fold to Villain's aggression, with Villain showing flush.


PRE-FLOP:
Villain limps from early position. Folds to Hero OTB. Hero sees 65 and raises to $25. Folds to Villain who calls. Thoughts?

FLOP:
66T Rainbow. Villain checks. Hero?

Everything looks fine until the river. Depending on villain the flop may have been a tip off, but that sort of read is very villain specific and isn't going to change my play without more history.

Villain may be blocking or bluffing when they bet river, but why raise? At that point there really isn't anything you beat that can pay you off. Against an unknown I'm calling most of the time, but it is a bad board for raising.

What hands do you expect to get called with on a river shove that you beat?

PF if he's loose, why raise? Keep the pot small and use your position to build a pot if you want. If you have him seen him limp/call then fold the flop or turn playing fit or fold then I like the raise to isolate and take a medium size pot on the flop.
River, why are raising a blocker bet or a bluff when you have show down value? What do you expect him to call thats worse or fold thats better.

Call river

I agree.

OTR I figure raising a bluff gives the same result as calling a bluff. By jamming over a blocker I can rep a bluff and he can call with a stubborn pair or 2p. I easily see him showing up with an ace in this hand considering how my hand was under-repped. I think I see plenty of calls with worse here.

Calling bluff - keeps his range as wide as possible - you call win his 100 dollar bet

Raising bluff - only his hands that beat you will call and his bluffs will fold - you get the same end result while risking whatever your raise size was on the river.

You raised preflop and fired flop and turn on a paired board, to any competent player your hand is pretty face up as a trip/overpair. 78 got there OTT, not really seeing many 2pair hands besides an A10 here, you only beat 26,36,46 on this board besides the 2pair few combos.

I'm writing on a mobile so its kinda hard to get my thoughts wrote in a good for not but you kinda get what I'm saying?

well ya but if never were to thinish value a blocker bet, it would be the greatest bet ever.

The river shove seems a bit optimistic. I think it is so odd that he all of a sudden is leading warrants a flat call. Ask youself what worse hands actually call a shove? A10 maybe calls if he can't fold but I am having a hard time thinking much else does. Basically by shoving you Value owning yourself way too often.

its obv situational...

if you never raise this river you are getting owned by blocker bets...

if you always raise this river you are likely making a mistake also...

I think there are better spots to raise against a blocker bet...plus his sizing didn't seem very blockish...I'd find better spots to value raise for sure

Loose people tend to do this bets with their monsters because they don't understand bet sizing and they would rather just have some money than none.

I see things like people donk brtting rivers for 1/5 pot on a board of A73J6 with straight and the top set only calls...I know people are wasting a ton of value but my point is their sizing might seem blokerish but it's more often a sucker bet

Obviously it's situational. What isn't so obvious is that this isn't a good situation for raising on the river.

The ace is actually a bad card in that regards because it arrived on the river. Hero can be barreling here with AX and have a made hand on river, but it's very unlikely for villain. Villain might float flop with a good AX but those mostly give up on turn. AT is the only hand likely to make it to river. Once the ace hits, middle pairs and TX are mostly going to fold when hero shoves. The ace means that most hands that might blocking bet the river are not going to call a shove, they are going to fold. At that point the hands that call the shove mostly beat hero. A better case for shoving could be made if the river had been a low brick. Now villains might station hero with an over pair. Still a risky move on the paired board and I probably wouldn't do it without a better read on villain but it's more sensible.

The other thing to consider is the size of the bet. $100 into a pot that is $227 is not a real small bet. If villain had bet $50 into the pot, then a raise/fold to $125 makes a bit of sense. Even if it is a blocking bet, $100 is big enough that hero is risking too much when he raises. A minimum raise to $200 would be pot committing. If villain shoves it costs hero $190 to win a pot of $717. Hero can't really fold even though it would be obvious that hero is almost always beat.

Pre is fine.

Flop is fine but I prefer a bit bigger. We can get value from lots of strong T's and weirdly played overpairs as we have a lot more T's than 6's left in our range. I would prefer $40.

Turn same, a bit bigger for value.

River: I really think this is pretty spewy. Like very spewy.
I think think it's optimistic borderline terrible to think that he will call with worse when we bet the flop, turn and jam the river over his raise.

And your hand is under repped a bit, but it's hard to rep anything weak on the river. There aren't many draws in your range so you can't have missed anything. So, while he may call with AT, I think that's the bottom of his calling range. What hands would be turning into a bluff on the river that he could be bluff catching against? Are we turning KK/QQ into a bluff here? Rarely. As a result, I think hoping that he hero calls you with worse hands here more often than we get value owned by better hands it pretty suicidal.

*grunch*

I read your whole post until the results of what villain had, didn't look at that yet.

Preflop: This is fine against players who are on the weak-tight size, but you must plan to bluff quite a bit post flop to make raising pre flop profitable.

Flop: We're committed now. I'm betting large and hoping villain has JJ, A10, or a medium pair and is a non-believe.

River: His bet is really strong. Very very unlikely he's just betting JJ or a weak 10-X. He cannot have Ace-X unless it's A6 or A10. I'm just flatting his bet.