Playing 2/5 NL @ Borgata in Atlantic City, NJ. About 7:00pm on a Saturday Night.

Hero : New to table, 2 orbits in. Haven't raised yet, only set mined 99 V1's earlier raise then c/f flop.

V1: Unknown, seemingly solid thinking opponent based on reaction to a bad call he just made to lose 1/3 of his stack. (Bottom 2 lost to a set)

Stacks

Hero : 470
V1: 800

V1 limps UTG, 4 more limpers, Hero in BB raises to $45 w/ AK, V1 calls, all others fold.

Flop: 3 Q K

Hero leads for $65
V1 smooth calls

Turn: 8

Hero checks
V1 bets $110
Hero calls

River: 2

Hero checks
V1 goes all in

What are your thoughts here? I feel I should have bet the turn if I was prepared to call anyways, I'd have a little more information. Obviously my hand is almost face-up at this point, but he did just lose a big pot the hand before, possibly tilting.

What can I beat tho? 56, J10 and the likes.

Is this an obvious fold?

How is your hand face up? Why did you check the turn? Your hand is underrepped. You're only losing to KQ and QQ. Should have bet the turn and check/called the river to give him a chance to bluff at his missed combo draw. AP snap call and V shows ATss

Definitely betting the turn, probably $170ish, then shoving river. I'm not folding on this runout.

I agree about betting the turn. There are tons of draws he could be on.

as played I would probably call the river since he might be placing you on a missed draw also since you played the hand so passively.

V1 is thinking I most likely have AA, AK, AQ, JJ based on my big raise out of the small blind.

He knows I can't have QQ or KK because I would have certainly bet the turn. Also, I'm unlikely to have spades.

The problem is what does he have limp calling UTG?

KQ, AT, AQ are unlikely

33, spade connectors or J10 suited were the most likely I thought at the time.

Hard to see V limp/calling KQ UTG, though I just lost a nice pot at 2/5 due to V limp/calling KQ UTG and checking all three streets to me on a K high flop, so it's definitely possible.

I think he has more draws and weaker K's in his range than putting him exactly on KQ or 33. Turn sizing was kind of weak at <1/2 PSB. You've got TPTK <100 BB's deep and underrepped your hand so call it down and expect to be good like 70% of the time.

Betting slightly larger on flop. Not sure why you would check turn. On this particular board absent specific reads I am betting turn and shipping river.

Agreed on betting the turn...just bet all 3 streets. I check the turn on these type of boards at times to induce a bet when I have a read on the villain that he bets when shown weakness. My plan would've been to check-raise all-in on turn though. As played, don't think you're hand is face up at all....calling river.

Bet >= check/raise > check/call

What do u guys think about this.

When hero is oop, go ahead and bet the turn. Cuz if v comes over the top, hes prolly not messin around

But when ur in pos, maybe checking the turn and calling reasonable river bets.

This is usually my approach, and i have picked off some bluffs and just called some worse hands when v thinks there good on the river

This way ur not playin for stax w only a pair

Not sayin its optimal, just curious what u guys think

c/r was my first instinct when I checked the turn. (I thought he was steaming from the last hand).

But V1's small bet on the turn made me think he either has a spade draw or milking me with 33.

So after I called the turn bet I was planning on c/c any non-spade, 9 or A

You need to know that villain is capable of bluffing in those type of spots...if he's a calling station then betting 3 streets is the way to go and if you get raised, then ur most likely safe bet/folding. Prefer using the turn check/raise on players I have more history with rather than possibly allowing them a free card on those type of boards.

Then the river (2) was exactly what you were looking for, so what's the question?

Bet/bet/bet seems like an overplay. What is he paying off 3 streets with? KJ exactly?

The river has to be a check, likely planning to fold to a shove. If we have a read, I could see a call. The question then is whether to bet/fold the turn or to check (and if you check, whether to fold to a bet that looks like it's setting up a river shove). I would probably bet/fold, because his range is likely weighted some toward draws and away from sets given the preflop action.

If you think he's a solid player I think you can discount 33 from his range as he isn't getting set mining odds with your stack size

Thanks for the input everyone. Hand results below…

Think you analyzed it correctly in the end. B/f turn is best play.

do you think if you would have bet the turn he would have raised you?

Firstly, I'm fairly sure V doesn't assume you have AK here; your hand isn't really face up.

Bet the turn, but as played, you're only losing to KQ and 33, so it seems like a call given every draw missed.

Also, if 3 streets seem too thin for TPTK here, then just bet flop and turn, then check/call river to bluff catch.

I don't think so. After playing with him for a few hours afterwards he turned out to be a very good player. He likely put me on AA or AK and was going for max value. Especially on a non-spade, non-broadway turn card.

I would have bet $125-135 on the turn so its possible he'd re-raise me all in, I'd only have about $230 behind at that point.

No, I don't think he put you on AA or AK and was going for max value. I think he was slowplaying a set because thats what fish do, even though it was godawful for him to flat 33 on that flop.

My thoughts, as a 1/2 player:
I'm not happy stacking off 100BB with TPTK, but it does happen.
I don't think we get 3 streets of value from worse, and being OOP it's tough to tell if V bets the turn on strength, or was floating. I'm calling with TPTK.
On the river, there is $440+ in the pot, and we face a shove for our remaining $250. No draws came in. We have a bluff catcher, and I don't know the 2/5 dynamic well enough to put V on a limp/call hand that decides to call the flop, bet the turn and shove the river.

If you bet the turn, and V calls. You check river, V shoves and you call?
If you bet the turn, and V raises, are you folding?

Gosh I hate playing OOP.

I think you are missing value from worse hands and draws - which is the majority of villain's range here.

sometimes we just get beat, you lost 94bb's with TPTK, not the worst beat. It's not like he was an OMC who would raise to protect that set otf when we can happily fold.

There was really not much more you could do in this hand to change the amount you lost. it is what it is.

V's flop call is just awful with these stack sizes and super wet broadway board with a lot of action killing turn cards. You ran into the absolute tip top of V's range, nothing you can do about it. If you had AA I'm sure you would be fine stacking off on this board even though it's really the same hand as AK here. Are you really folding this flop if V raises when his range is so heavy on Kx and draws?

If you don't occasionally punt 100 BB's with TPTK then you can be assured you are not getting max value the times you are ahead (which is more often). I'm going broke here all the same if V just smooth calls my (slightly larger) turn bet leaving behind a trivial $175-200 OTR.