Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? / NL: Bluff River or Not?

07-14-2014 , 05:08 PM
$500 eff. I'm new to the table, folded 1.5 orbits. V is a young guy on my left, wearing glasses, may be sensible, "looks" intelligent.

Someone limps in MP, I raise KcQc in HJ to $30. V in CO flats, all others fold.

Flop: JdTh3c Pot ~ $75 I bet $50, V calls.
Turn: 4c Pot ~ $175 I bet $100. V asks how many bills I have, thinks for a little and calls.
River: 3h Pot ~ $375

Bluff? If so, how much? Please explain why. Feedback on all streets much appreciated.
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-14-2014 , 05:37 PM
I would most likely check / fold here. If he's drawing, you either win or chop if he checks behind, otherwise he's very likely ahead and is going to look you up.

If I had an overpair here, or AJ/KJ, I would still most likely check, but plan to call any bet he makes.
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-14-2014 , 07:22 PM
Wow, I'm not really sure what he could be calling with for 2 streets that would fold here. All I can range him on is slow played monsters, AJ, 98, and KQ, and we only target the last with a bluff.

If we somehow knew that he would call the whole way with AQ/AK/QJ/KJ I would really like a bluff that looks like an solid value bet, 50% or 60%.

Since we don't know this though I just give up.
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-14-2014 , 08:25 PM
I check fold river as played, however you turn bet is too small. I woulda bet more like $130-$150.
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-15-2014 , 01:09 AM
What do you put him on? I mean realistically he has some kind of jack...KJ/AJ (QJcc maybe). It would be hard for him to call with anything less...at best he has 89 or Q9 could be possible...most other hands would wash out by the turn bet. The problem is if you bet and he calls you lose 100%...has he shown to call with draws to a lot of aggression? If so you can count those hands with more leaning towards 89/AJ/KJ/QJ...either way there are more combos of jacks in his range than a naked busted draw. Turn needs to be $120-150 if you want to show you mean business.
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-15-2014 , 10:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Olaff
$500 eff. I'm new to the table, folded 1.5 orbits. V is a young guy on my left, wearing glasses, may be sensible, "looks" intelligent.

Someone limps in MP, I raise KcQc in HJ to $30. V in CO flats, all others fold.

Flop: JdTh3c Pot ~ $75 I bet $50, V calls.
Turn: 4c Pot ~ $175 I bet $100. V asks how many bills I have, thinks for a little and calls.
River: 3h Pot ~ $375

Bluff? If so, how much? Please explain why. Feedback on all streets much appreciated.
Hand is played fine but like the river is a great bluffing card versus a thinking player since it helps your range and your relative value but it is a bad bluffing card versus somebody focused on their own cards.

You have 300 behind so if he is a tight player I'd ship it.
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-15-2014 , 10:51 AM
I would just check/fold. The river isn't much of a scare card, and he's pretty much pot committed at this point. After he called the double barrel, I doubt he's folding the river.
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-15-2014 , 04:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t
Hand is played fine but like the river is a great bluffing card versus a thinking player since it helps your range and your relative value but it is a bad bluffing card versus somebody focused on their own cards.
Please explain.
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-15-2014 , 04:45 PM
BTW, anyone like overshipping turn?
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-15-2014 , 04:55 PM
Obvious spot to barrel. Probably bet slightly bigger turn and shove river.
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-16-2014 , 01:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Olaff
BTW, anyone like overshipping turn?
No... But if I'm going to fire the bullet, its going to be at least 140. Plus, if you hit your 15-19 outs it sets up for a bigger bet on the river. He looks sensible, he doesn't know you. To him, you are just another standard 2/5 player. On this turn card, the flush draw comes in (as it often does). There is a broadway straight draw on the flop. Do what standard 2/5 players do here with a big breakable hand like QQ+, AJ and 'protect your hand'. I honestly think I just give up if he calls the big turn bet and I brick the river. I highly doubt you have the fold equity with a river shove. Plus I also don't think he will turn a straight draw into a bluff and you do have a bit of showdown value. Trying to bluff someone off TPGK+ on the river is aids unless the stars are aligned. People don't go to the casino to fold the toppest of pairs. Especially when they have the toppest of pairs with a good kicker plus the board is paired on an unrealistic card given them a big two pair.

Alternate line is going for the x/jam on the turn. If he does not bet, i'd probably check behind on the river and give up.

I like line #1 best though.

Last edited by SunChips; 07-16-2014 at 01:24 AM.
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-16-2014 , 02:01 AM
Does anyone else disagree with firing the second barrel? Hero has folded his first 15 hands, giving off a tight image. Villain then called a raise and a flop bet, so he isn't going to be afraid if Hero bets the turn and enters pot commitment territory.

It seems absurd to think he's floating with a medium or top pair type hand. Villain's call on the turn provides more evidence for this claim.

Check/fold the river, but I think you should have checked the turn and seen what Villain does.
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-16-2014 , 02:27 AM
arr in
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-16-2014 , 11:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Olaff
Please explain.
The QQ-AA in your range now beat JT and are more likely to value bet the river comfortably.

I also agree with sunchips/buffalo on turn bet sizing. You're betting because of fold equity, and 100 doesn't carry as much as 140ish would. We want QJ/KJ to question it's ability to stand tall by the river.
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-16-2014 , 12:20 PM
I like a larger turn bet when double barreling like to $130-$150....once he calls though, I'm just check/folding the river. The river doesn't change much and don't think you're going to see him folding Jx, QQ+, or (maybe even Tx)....people don't like to come to the casino to fold. Hope he has some sort of busted draw and checks behind on river.

On the reverse side...these are the spots where if you have TT+, AJ...you'll be able to get stacks in on river and double up a large majority of the time playing the hand the same way.
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-16-2014 , 12:32 PM
Most players station river after calling turn + you beat all worse straight draws so I would check here.
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-16-2014 , 12:35 PM
I think this is a great place to bluff the river. I agree making it a bit more on the turn. I disagree that most people will call river after calling turn, especially against a tight player. Barreling all three streets shows a lot of strength, and there is not much V can call with that he would think is ahead on this river unless he slow-played a set.

It's amazing how many people fold to me when I 3-barrel. One of the benefits of being a 40-something woman -- nobody ever expects me to bluff
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-16-2014 , 12:39 PM
I like a river shove the most if you range your opponent on busted draws, JX, and even Jack 10. The river counterfeits all combos of Jack 10, if villain puts you on an over pair. Your of course not going to get a full house to fold, but I like a shove.

However, I would like it a lot more if I've observed villain to make some lay-downs in previous hands. But, if you get called, take solace that you are going to get paid off more when you actually have a hand.
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-16-2014 , 02:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pwnsall
Obvious spot to barrel. Probably bet slightly bigger turn and shove river.
Why obvious river shove?
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-16-2014 , 02:34 PM
This is a pretty standard shove.
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-16-2014 , 02:36 PM
I feel that a turn c/r works better with the stacks sizes than a double barrel. Villain probably isn't flatting 2 pair+ on that flop and he will almost always be bet/folding Jx/Tx considering you're an unknown. This line also allows you to pick up an extra bet compared to the line taken. If he checks behind, then it's obviously not the worst thing in the world.

As played, I probably jam. Worst case scenario, you get looked up and then get paid off for the rest of the session.

Edit: I like the turn sizing. It allows enough room for hero to jam rivers. If you bet 150 and get called, then all of a sudden you only have ~1/2 PSB and villain may feel committed
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-16-2014 , 02:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SunChips
No... But if I'm going to fire the bullet, its going to be at least 140. Plus, if you hit your 15-19 outs it sets up for a bigger bet on the river. He looks sensible, he doesn't know you. To him, you are just another standard 2/5 player. On this turn card, the flush draw comes in (as it often does). There is a broadway straight draw on the flop. Do what standard 2/5 players do here with a big breakable hand like QQ+, AJ and 'protect your hand'. I honestly think I just give up if he calls the big turn bet and I brick the river. I highly doubt you have the fold equity with a river shove. Plus I also don't think he will turn a straight draw into a bluff and you do have a bit of showdown value. Trying to bluff someone off TPGK+ on the river is aids unless the stars are aligned. People don't go to the casino to fold the toppest of pairs. Especially when they have the toppest of pairs with a good kicker plus the board is paired on an unrealistic card given them a big two pair.

Alternate line is going for the x/jam on the turn. If he does not bet, i'd probably check behind on the river and give up.

I like line #1 best though.
1. FD did not come in OTT. I picked up FD OTT.

2. x/jam turn... ahhhhhhh! this may be a sick line. very intriguing. we have a ton of equity + CR jam looks stronger than just an overjam lead out. I didn't think of this. What do you guys think?

3. I can't check behind OTR as I'm OOP. You probably meant c/f, right.

4. On the flop he's capped at JT, maybe TT. JT is not very likely. OTT AJ/KJ/QJ and weaker Jx are in the range and more rare peels with Tx. 98s is a possibility. I believe the bigger part of the range to be weaker Jx. It can obviously fold to turn overjam. If he's a better/tighter player he can probably fold KJ/QJ there as well.

5. I believe a strong holding would make a raise for value either OTF or OTT. That did not happen. This weakens his range substantially to weak Jx or QJ max which can fold OTR.
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-16-2014 , 02:39 PM
I'd go slightly bigger on the turn but only like $110 or $115. Anything more gives you no room on the river.
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-16-2014 , 02:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SABR42
This is a pretty standard shove.
Why?
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote
07-16-2014 , 02:47 PM
Checking turn is pretty bad.

When you have this many outs, you should empty the clip rather than let villain check behind with his range, which is weaker than yours. You also have K-high, which is not winning at showdown very often.
/ NL: Bluff River or Not? Quote

      
m