Quote:
Originally Posted by SunChips
No... But if I'm going to fire the bullet, its going to be at least 140. Plus, if you hit your 15-19 outs it sets up for a bigger bet on the river. He looks sensible, he doesn't know you. To him, you are just another standard 2/5 player. On this turn card, the flush draw comes in (as it often does). There is a broadway straight draw on the flop. Do what standard 2/5 players do here with a big breakable hand like QQ+, AJ and 'protect your hand'. I honestly think I just give up if he calls the big turn bet and I brick the river. I highly doubt you have the fold equity with a river shove. Plus I also don't think he will turn a straight draw into a bluff and you do have a bit of showdown value. Trying to bluff someone off TPGK+ on the river is aids unless the stars are aligned. People don't go to the casino to fold the toppest of pairs. Especially when they have the toppest of pairs with a good kicker plus the board is paired on an unrealistic card given them a big two pair.
Alternate line is going for the x/jam on the turn. If he does not bet, i'd probably check behind on the river and give up.
I like line #1 best though.
1. FD did not come in OTT. I picked up FD OTT.
2. x/jam turn... ahhhhhhh! this may be a sick line. very intriguing. we have a ton of equity + CR jam looks stronger than just an overjam lead out. I didn't think of this. What do you guys think?
3. I can't check behind OTR as I'm OOP. You probably meant c/f, right.
4. On the flop he's capped at JT, maybe TT. JT is not very likely. OTT AJ/KJ/QJ and weaker Jx are in the range and more rare peels with Tx. 98s is a possibility. I believe the bigger part of the range to be weaker Jx. It can obviously fold to turn overjam. If he's a better/tighter player he can probably fold KJ/QJ there as well.
5. I believe a strong holding would make a raise for value either OTF or OTT. That did not happen. This weakens his range substantially to weak Jx or QJ max which can fold OTR.