Underground 2/5 game, Saturday night, 10 handed.

Not a complicated hand by any means, just wanted to see what others thought our line should be.

Hero (CO, $550): White guy, mid 30's, neutral TAG image. Villain plays the same regardless of who he’s in a hand with so how he views Hero isn’t really relevant.

Villain (UTG+1, $485) is a very fishy MAWG in his late 50's/early 60's. He prefers playing tournaments, and his understanding of poker strategy appears to consist largely of stuff he’s heard commentators say on WPT broadcasts. He has no situational awareness at the table and tends to stick to what he considers “standard” play.

Here are a few hand histories involving Villain:

HH1 (3 weeks before hand in question): MP opens to $25, Villain 3bets to $80 from the CO, MP flats. The flop comes out ten-high, rainbow, disconnected. MP donks out $140, Villain raises to $300, MP calls. Turn is an offsuit J, MP leads out for $500, Villain calls. River is a brick, MP shoves for $800, Villain calls with QQ. MP shows KK and drags in a massive pot.

HH2 (1 day before the hand in question): Villain is on the BTN, there a raise to $20 from EP, two callers in MP, Villain overcalls, and the blinds comes along as well. The flop is T86r, everyone checks to Villain who bets $25 into a $120 pot. BB calls, EP calls, rest fold. Turn is an offsuit 3, BB and EP both check, Villain bets $35 into a $195 pot, BB calls and EP folds. River is a 7, and now the BB leads out for $180. Villain calls fairly quickly, BB turns over 98o for the rivered straight. Villain proceeds to berate the BB for “calling all the way to the river with a ****ing gutshot” and promises to the whole table that “next time somebody wants to draw out on me it’s going to cost them a lot more.”

HH3 (20 minutes before the hand in question): There’s a $20 raise from up front, a few callers, and Villain calls on the BTN. Flop is AJTr, HJ bets $55, Villain raises to $155, HJ shoves for $400 total, Villain snap calls with JT for bottom two pair. HJ turns over AJ for top two and holds up. Villain reaches in his pocket and rebuys for another $500.

On to the hand:
UTG limps, Villain overlimps, we get three more limpers from MP, Hero overlimps in the CO with 98, BTN folds, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop ($40): QJT
Villain bets $60, folds, Hero flats, blinds fold.

Turn ($160): 3
Villain bets $100. Hero ???

Fold pre

We can discount AK/QQ/JJ/(TT) from his range as I assume he would never limp these pre.

K9s is really the only holding we fear. More likely holdings are all flopped 2 pair combos and a bunch of combo draws (pair plus FD/SD, etc).

Agree with flatting overbet on the flop. We have 3 players left to act. We don't want to get 3-bet off the best hand. We hate so many turn cards.

When the turn bricks, all of his range's equity plummets (except for K9) but your hand is under-repped and he is probably barreling all two-pairs and most semibluffs.

I would just shove turn and expect to get called by it all given his recent cooler and player description.

If he has K9, go broke and remind yourself not to overlimp non-suited connectors.

Shove the turn, V is calling with most(if not all) of his 2 pair combos; and we do slightly block K9. I'm discounting AK since he would raise that hand pre-flop a vast majority of the time, especially from a tournament player. Plus, V is possibly on tilt and will call wider than he normally would.

Any merit in just calling it down?

This should be a fold pre.

As played I agree with the above and would ship the turn. Theres so many bad river cards for us (diamond, club(unlikely), A, K, 9) which decreases our hands value substantially. I think Villian is likely to call with QK+, KJdd, KK, AA, two pair, and sets. He overvalues his hands and we need to get value now, half of the deck can potentially kill our hand or our action.

Flatting flop is good; now shove turn.

do you see any merits yourself? villain clearly isn´t bluffing, we are a huge favourite over his range, and he most likely isn´t folding his weaker range vs our shove.
what would be the reasons in your opinion which makes calling better than raising?

Thanks everyone for the responses.

This was a hand where I was pretty confident my line was good (except maybe preflop which is marginal but getting almost 7:1 IMO it can't be that bad to take a flop in position) but still wanted to see if others might have different ideas.

Result:

I'm wondering what the point is of just calling the flop if we hate so many turn cards (A,K,9, diamond). If we are really only worried about K9, shouldn't we be pumping this flop big and getting money in if we believe he will call with QK+, KJdd, KK, AA, two pair, and sets. Why not get value on the flop as opposed to waiting for the turn? Are we trying to wait until we have more equity and get the money in better?