pre: prob flatting, bloated pots in position against the best player at the table's UTG range is prob less optimal than just hoping a lot of fish come along multiway

flop: sizing a little smaller, 50ish

turn: as played i think its a check. you block a lot of the KK/QQ/AK/AQ combos and unblock AA/JJ/AJ, so really the hands you're trying to put the most pressure on are TT/99. sooo i think you have less fold equity than most people in this thread think.

river: probably not barrelling, its a non-scare scarecard and your value hands are now probably AJ/AA/JJ/AK and worse than AK starts getting into dubious valuebet territory. also not the exact hand i think is the bluff candidate due to previously mentioned stuff on turn. as for what bluff combos there need to be, i'd prob say T8s/87s76s no spades. hard to have a bluff combo with a Jx (blocking AJ/JJ) cuz it wants to get to showdown.

ultimately its gonna depend on the opening range of UTG and the tendencies of the players behind. sometimes the table will call for you to 3bet lots of stuff, sometimes the table will call for you to flat everything. this isnt the spot to have an unflexible strategy.

in this case villain is a good player, and since most 2/5 players are fish you probably have fish behind you. in this case i think its better to flat lots of stuff. and its not the end of the world if it goes 5 ways if you have premiums, u can just check lots of flops and get 2 streets of value.

Well what happened?

As played, I like an all-in on the River.

However, is 3-betting with this stack depth correct to begin with?

Hero arrives at River with half pot-sized bet - Villain only needs to be correct 1/4 times to make the call.

I shoved and he thought about it for around 30 seconds and folded. Neither of us asked what each other had, but I'm really curious, after thinking about it.

I did see him make a ridiculous fold later in the session and be right (3x pot overbet shove otr with middle set on a non flush, 3 card straight board vs a passive player.)

You made a very interesting assumption here.

It's hard for him to have T8s/87s/76s as bluffs, because he's not 3betting them from UTG1 vs UTG. He probably hardly plays them. It's so hard to have bluffs in that spot, that he should be betting less rather than shoving.

Agreed that KQs is too weak to 3bet for value and too strong to 3bet as a bluff. Flat.

good thread.

Ace on river is just to good of card not to bluff. He doesn't have much Ax and our #1 turn bluff candidate (AK) just got home.

And our bluff only needs to succeed 1/3 of the time. The math works both ways.