Hero 1335 Utg+1 KK
Villain 955 utg nitty 70 year old.


I been playing with villain for 2 hours now, have not seen him 3bet PF once yet, have not seen him bluff, have not seen him check raise, every time he bet he had the goods. He sat down 2 hours ago with $200 and now has $955.

Villain limps utg, I raise to $35 (standard raise amount), 2 other callers, and villain immediately makes it $235 after bb folds. He has 720 behind- total almost 200bb.

Villain looked way to confident. I put his range at minimum KK and probably has AA. I think he calls PF raise or raises PF himself with JJ or QQ. I'm 100% sure he is not doing this with AK.

What's my play? Fold wait for a better spot, call and re evaluate on flop, fist pump ship it? I think calling was worst option. If he had 100bb I think a shove all in is standard, but what about 200bb against this type of villain?

Fold, you said it's KK+ 99% which means you're chopping (minus a 4-flush) at best, crushed at worst.

Call is terrible option; shove is worst, given stack sizes.

fist-pumping is def. the worst option because if villain is doing this w/ QQ then he will never be calling 720 more.

You do get some value from the other KK folding, but can't say if he will do this in this spot.

Based on your read, his range is polarized to AA and KK (a lot less likely), and MAYBE QQ (perhaps even more unlikely). You don't need pokerstove to realize this is a ----EV play.

Best option is closet-fold

This is a perfect example of when to fold KK pre. Fold and tell no one.

how and where does a nitty old man turn $200 into $955 in two hours? i want to play there.

fold here. though it seems like a terrible overraise but i guess with two callers in between it isn't too much. i've seen this play a lot with JJ that doesn't want to see the flop, but, still, against a nitty old man, i think this is turning into AA about 99.2 percent of the time.

+1

LoL, yeah old man hit a set on his second hand and got paid off multiway. Then got paid off with top two and then hit another set.

No offense, but I think you are overestimating what can be deduced from a sample size of 2 hours live. You can't really be 100% sure of much of anything. Yes we've all played against nitty retirees before, so that information adds to what we've seen. However, I'm just not sure you have enough information to be as precise with your reads as you are. I'm not debating your reasoning, and if you had a few hundred/thousand hands of data against villain then you might be right. However, I'm not sure 2 hours of live play can be enough to be *that* sure of your read so as to fold KK pre.

I dunno.... I folded QQ to a 3 bet after 1 hour playing against a guy who showed down AK 2x, JJ 1x in limped pots.

I think you don't need a huge sample size to draw this conclusion.

Nice fold. You prolly just saved 900. Did you consider taking a flop though? I have seen old men play like this before and then sometime later in the session wish I had called based on new information.
If you know he is folding QQ to a shove then why is calling the worst option?

200bbs preflop vs an old nitty man is too much to put in with anything but AA.

I recently had a very similar situation with KK. I weighted the 6 combos of AA as 80% likely, 6 combos of QQ as 10%, 1 combo of KK as 5%, and 2 combos of AKs as 5% in a spreadsheet. It was a clear fold. You have to really increase the likelihood of QQ to make a call.

This is a good example of why hands only have relative value in cash games. The abs value is the 2nd nuts but against this opp in this spot, I think its a fold.

Clear fold, OP. You don't tug on Supernit's cape.

I went into the tank for a good 4 minutes. I considered all 3 options and I did not want to call $200 just to set mine because what do i do if old man shoves on a low flop, im back to where i started. For me it was all in or fold.

Ya, i was thinkg this too. The flop comes 8 high and he shoves QQ and up Your in the same spot his range is still almost always AA. And set mining is no good either because your not getting even close to the right price. It's a clear fold even if he showed you QQ after everyone mucked. We ALMOST NEVER need to pay off nits like this. We can find much better spots.

However I know a common nit move is to over bet with jacks because. "I really hat this hand" But that is the kind of thing that gets in my head when Im at the tabe and cuts down my hourly by 2bb per hour.

why not call and see how he reacts to a flop? i feel like just throwing away KK in this spot is terrible.


i dunno even if he has AA you can set mine that fool!(terribly but w.e)

but as i second guess myself im not used to ever considering folding KK pf so maybe its better to just be done with it early if you are scared to play it deep stackt. I also feel like a bad player advocating a call when evry1 else says fold, however i will agree with dude that said you cant assume much from a 2 hr sample, therefore cant fold KK.


CALL, outplay post flop one way or another is my final answer(even if he has AA and you fold OTF you still win, coz he woulda stackd off in your shoes lol)

Ye, this. 2 hours isn't a long enough time to be assuming that this is a spot to only get AA in aipf. I wouldn't be surprised if he had QQ here. I can't make this fold here.

Also make it 25 pf

Calling here when deepstack is also dependent on bankroll size IMO. the bigger our roll the more we can afford to call here and revaluate on the flop. But if we are short rolled we are less likely to bluff Potential AA with boards like JJ9 or 5678 our
2578.

Assuming we think Villan is even capable of laying down AA on scary board.

Some older gents in the NL games i play love to do this with KK and AA exclusively. Since you have KK its obv he likely has AA so fold. So you lose $35 with KK. So what! Learn to trust yourself.

You said this "Villain looked way to confident"

So what if he ended up doing it this time with QQ. I would bet that most of the time he shows up with AA here.

For those who cant fold KK here you really should consider it vs this type of a villain.

NEVER fold KK preflop

YOU CAN STILL DRAW OUT!!!!!!!

this thread is bonkers, especially because were only talking about A SINGLE 3-bet... And we just grant this man credit for AA, ppaaaaalllleasseeee!! SHIP IT

I knew there was a reason I stopped coming by here and this confirms it.

Late

LoL

I don't understand why QQ is out of his range even if he's super nitty.

Even if I'm nit of the century, I'd be super confident with QQ after a single raise and 3 callers. I'm only worried about the original raiser. Same goes for AK honestly. Yes the raise is big, but I've seen plenty of nitty players do this with AK because they're afraid to play post flop. Sorry, fold just seems bad.

Doesn't matter what u do. Fold and he'll show QQ 100% of the time, call and he'll have AA 100% of the time. That's live poker for me anyway.