$2/5 on a Saturday night at Mohegan

I assume my imagine is pretty TAG. Mid twenties semi regular at this casino. I've only shown down winners but have folded pretty quickly after my bluffs have been raised. I have about $1200 in front of me

Villain is a mid twenties Asian kid who doesn't speak any English and has head phones in. He's made some thin value bets and has 3 bet AKo twice. We've been at the table for about 4 hours together and I've never played with him before.

Hero is in the cutoff and raises to 30 over 1 limper with KK Villain calls in the BB and limper folds

Flop ($67) 722
V: quickly checks H: bets 40 V: quickly calls

Turn ($147) 4
V: checks H: bets 110 V: insta calls

At this point I think most of his range is 88-JJ and one pair hands. He could also have AXhh but that's a loose call on the flop. Either way I'm pretty pleased for him to check the river and to get a 3rd street of value. He could have sevens or fours full but I think he check raises a lot with those hands or at least thinks about it instead of insta calling.

River ($367) 5
V: checks H: bets 200 V: pretty quickly goes all in for another 600

My immediate thoughts were to fold pretty quickly. However the more I thought about it the more no value hands made sense. I think he leads the river with all of his flushes and doesn't check raise without a boat. If he has 7s full I think he at least thinks about a check raise on the flop and the turn and probably leads the river as well. His line made no sense to me. The problem was I couldn't put any bluffs in his range except for 2 random cards that he just spazzed with. With little reads I had no idea if he was capable of that. My experience in these games says that people don't generally check raise the river without the nuts or close to the nuts but I don't see why he would check three times with a boat. I might be overthinking it. Thoughts?

FOLD! i like your line in this hand bet, bet, bet but river is a bet/fold.

You keep firing with pretty large sizing. Why in the world would he do anything else but check 3 times with 7s full.

There's also A7HH/44 that make sense. 55 also if he's really stationary.

30 was a pretty standard preflop raise with a limper at this table. My flop and turn bets seem pretty standard as well. I'm not sure what would make him so confident I'm gonna fire a third barrel

That's gross. I can't imagine him having a two here and not raising flop or turn, unless he has 22 or 72. Ah7h makes sense as does 77, but not much else. And you're right his bluff range seems nonexistent.

Is there any history that makes him think he has FE? Or has he ran this play before?

I'm probably folding here for the same reason as noted above, people don't do this without (close to) the nuts. Either villain is sicko or has us crushed.


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I tried to edit. I was referring to the turn bet

I do agree that A7hh could make sense but I'm not sure he check raise shoves the nut flush on the river. I don't usually see people risking their entire stack with a flush on a paired board especially when they close the action. I could be wrong but I think he leads the river with a flush or maybe check calls.

As far as fold equity the only thing I'll say is I don't waste time mucking when people raise my cbet bluffs. I think people tend to think you're full of **** when that happens.

Tough spot.

He seems to lean on the aggressive side by thin valuing and 3-b. His CRAI goes against that.

Hard to flop or turn a FH. On the nutty side he could have floated A3s and hit the river. On the other side, he could be repping a flush with a miss like AhQx.

Big bets usually mean the goods, but I think he leads river given the strength you've shown, rather than risk a check back. Most LLSNL players don't go for 3 streets anyway.

I'm fine with a fold, but lean call if u r able to withstand a prolonged tilt.

It's a fold. You have plenty of flushes in your range. He might have a few slowplayed boats, but it looks a lot like AhXh, which is not a loose call on the flop btw. That's a pretty standard float.

^ not to mention he has a lot more 7hXh hands in his range than just A7. We are 200 bbs deep.

Hand is well played, river is a bet/fold imo.

Sizing is fine on every street but the river. River bet should be $125-150. You're targeting 88+. Overpairs will struggle to call a big bet when you b/b/b.

Fold as played. There is no missed draw for him to c/r bluff. Not that low stakes villains ever c/r bluff. You found a unicorn if he spazzed with worse.

Fold. Since there are no missed draws, he'd have to be turning a 7 or pocket pair into a bluff with a check-raise on the river into a player who has shown nothing but strength. That just doesn't happen often enough at 2/5 to merit a call.

Plus, he has several value hands that might play this way. Ah7h, 7h8h, 7h6h, 7h9h, 6h8h, Ah2h, 22, 44 (3 combos), 77 (3 combos), 55 (3 combos). Not all of these will play this way, but even if you discount several of them, that's still a lot of hands that beat you. And that doesn't even include pure floats like AXh, KhQh, JhTh, etc.

I think it was well played to this point though.

Fold. He's got 72os for the BB special.

Check raise on the river is basically always going to be the nuts unless you're playing with very good players.

Sure there aren't many value hands he's representing here, but live poker is sometimes odd and people play very poorly/deceptively in weird spots. Often this is just a spot where he slow played every street with a huge hand is now trying to correct his sizing mistake.

Unless you've seen otherwise I don't think you should be assuming he is turning one pair hands like 88 into a bluff. You just have to fold.

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In a lot of spots people are afraid to go nuts with a flush on a paired board, but this isnt one of them. Hes not going to be afraid that you have a boat here with this rag board after you raised $30 preflop. Hes putting you squarely on an over pair.

Only a complete sicko check raise bluffs in this spot and only you know if hes a sicko or not.

+1 on this, I thought the same thing, your range is all over pairs and if he thinks he has fold equity, this is closer to a call. In the end I probably still fold, but it's closer.


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