Villain in the hand is a successful tournament pro who plays a LAG style in cash games, often on the spewy side. I often see him buy-in short ($200) and try to run his stack up in low SPR situations, much like a tournament. But this is his first hand at my table after arriving from a must-move.

Hero is a late-20s reg who doesn't have a ton of direct history with Villain.

The two EP limpers are typical fit-or-fold recreational players.

Effective stacks are $460.

***HAND***

UTG limps
UTG+1 limps
Hero (UTG+3) raises to $30 with KK
Villain (HJ) calls $30
UTG calls
UTG+1 folds

Pot: $98 (after rake)
Flop: T75

UTG checks
Hero bets $60
Villain raises to $175
UTG folds
Hero ???

My instinct here is to shove and get it in against his entire range. But upon further inspection, I'm not sure that's necessarily the correct play. My read on Villain is that he is likely to 3-bet me pre with JJ+, AKs, AKo and AQs, and will flat with a wide variety of hands, including A2s+, 22-TT, and a bunch of suited connectors, gappers and even double-gappers. But once he raises me on the flop, I think his range is limited to sets, T7s, AXhh and combo draws such as Jh9h, Jh8h, 9h8h, 9h6h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 6h4h, 6h3h, 5h4h and 4h3h. And against that range, I'm only 35%.

Seems sick to fold this, but is that the correct play? Is my evaluation of villain's range off here?

Pretty tough spot. Definitely shove/ fold.

Assuming he always calls the shove with that range, we are risking 370 to win 958, or 38.6% of the pot.

If the range is correct we have an EV of -$34.7

If there is any FE it's getting closer to break even. I wonder if tourney players have a greater tendency to fold for their whole stack in a marginal spot like this with draws...

It seems like a good player read and a decent range to me.

I'm getting my 370 in the middle. I might fold to other tighter player types tho.

Why aren't you including stuff like QJhh in his range? Given player type, I'm shoving without a second thought.

This is a super ****ty spot where villain should have all 9 sets in his range. Really comes down to his raising range. If he likes to play shallow is he really going to semi-bluff NFD's? At the same time, Axhh is flipping with you so it's the right play, but I feel like this is one of those flipping at best spots.

Hard to say. With the K I probably shove but with no redraw I think I fold. I just torched a buyin in a spot where I had JJ blockers to the straight so maybe I'm feeling a little spewy/gunshy.

So he's a LAG that plays a lot of hands, which means he prolly called pre wide (obvious ik).

Does he have a wide calling range in this spot, like is he gonna call stuff like 89/86 combos or J9 combos? It's hard to exploit OTF in most spots, but this is def a call.

I think his flatting range for my c-bet includes all non-Ax flush draws, 8Ts+, the open-ended straight draws that aren't hearts (98s, 86s, 64s) and possibly even hands like J9, J8 or 96 of spades for the gutter + BDFD. And also possibly hands like 78 of spades for the same reason. He might even flat some of his AXhh hands, but that strengthens his raising range even more.

I don't think he's raising me here with QhJh, because that hand doesn't have enough equity against the hands I'm likely willing to stack off with. I think with all of his flatting hands he knows he has the ability to bet and take down the pot when checked to on a lot of scary turn cards, so despite his relatively wide raising range he has a pretty wide calling range as well.

I'd go slightly bigger preflop if it'll still get a call.

My experience of tournament players is they think they have more FE than they've actually got so I'm instinctively leaning towards gii. Before your flop bet SPR is 4.3:1. It's possible to bet/fold here vs a tight raiser but I think I'd commit with my hand vs lag tournament player.

I don't think you should discount all combos of QQ/JJ, especially JJ. There could be occasional spaz with AT too. He might elect to call some of his best combo draws and AXhh rather than raise them so his raised draws may not have as much equity as you think. He might lead some of his sets. Therefore I think you have better than 35% equity vs his raising range.

V has put half his chips in so I think he gii with 100% of his raising range here. You can't call and fold turn if V shoves 100% of turns which I expect him to do, therefore it is shove or fold.

Like nelsonwelson says: you have 370 behind, V has 255 behind and pot is 333 so you require 370/(370+255+333)= 39% equity to break even on your shove (get your 370 back).

I also agree with NW that tournament players are more prone to folding errors in big pots than cash players. You may therefore be able to fold some of V's equity here.

Use your software to work out how many combos of QQ/JJ/AT you need to get 40% equity and what impact V folding a few draws has on your equity. If you're having to force too many unrealistic combos into his range before it becomes profitable to shove then I'd fold.

FWIW, I don't think Villain is raise-folding here ever.

Give the stack size and drawy board and laggy v, I'm shoving here to avoid potential mistake on the turn.

If we are deeper, I might just puke fold.


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Grunch, shove all day here. I think deeper it becomes a legit question. Also, I would definitely consider flatting if I had the Kh.

For those saying we need to shove at these stack depths, is that because you think Villain will show up with JJ or QQ at least part of the time? If we give Villain half the JJ and QQ combos, our equity against his range increases to 44% -- which makes this a shove, but not by much. And that to me is best case scenario.

Tournament "pro"

I hate to say it's too exploitable to bet fold this flop but I think it's close enough to gii this shallow vs his range (which could be ANY flush draw from a lag who buys in short and wants to double through early, ime) and you can't let short stacking tournament donks raise you off every over pair on any two toned ten high flop.

Jam

I can see the argument for folding but due to the stack depth as stated before and our equity vs. his possible ranges. As long as he isn't a tight player I'm shoving here.


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Vs. this type of opponent one will have unfortunate luck at times. If he is a calling T7s for 6 bbs pre and a $460 ES, nice catch. I'm AI.

"Successful" tournament player and BI for 40 bbs at a cash game supports my decision.

I'd really like a response better than "this guy seems spewy, I'm all-in, if he has it he has it."

What does that mean to you exactly? Is he raise-calling (or raise-folding) JTs? Does he have all of his JJ and QQ combos? Does he have every single flush draw combos?

Given that my initial analysis of his range shows that the correct move is to fold, what am I missing that would flip the correct play to a shove?

1. stack size
2. Kings on a ten high board
3. Sizing of the raise is probably to fold you out
4. villain is a "successful tournament pro who plays a LAG style in cash games, often on the spewy side".

So what hands are you including in his raising range that I neglected to include?

I think I explained pretty clearly (post #8) how I think V's range in reality differs from yours given in OP.

Your range looks good but on closer inspection is a little mubsy. My alterations just make it a bit more realistic IMO.

1) V leads some sets, 2pair and big draws so take some combos out of his x/r.
2) V slow plays QQ/JJ pre and flats too wide pre sometimes -like ATs, KTs QTs JTs.
3) V sometimes makes poor decisions with QQ/JJ/TX on the flop so put some of them in x/r range.
4) V chooses to x/c some strong draws sometimes so remove some of them from x/r range.
5) V chooses to x/r some weaker draws sometimes so add a few of those to his x/r range.

Very few players are actually very good or very consistent at low stakes so chances are this guy makes his fair share of mistakes. Therefore don't assign him a perfectly played range as if he knows your exact hand and plays flawlessly at all times.

Rage - villain is IP, not OOP.

lol

1. He has a wide range. I think your equity is under estimated based on this range. Laggy style tends to raise draws more often, thus range is weighted towards those. Clearly open to discussion.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Th7h5s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 47.97% 47.97% 0.00% { KdKc }
CO 52.03% 52.03% 0.00% { TT, 77, 55, 98s, 75s, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, Ah9h, Kh9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, Td9d, Ts9s, Tc9c, Ah8h, Td8d, Ts8s, Tc8c, Ah6h, 8h6h, 7d6d, 7s6s, 7c6c, Ah5h, 6h5h, Ah4h, 5h4h, Ah3h, Ah2h }

2. Effective stacks. At less than 100 bbs with a T-high board, there is space for QQ/JJ to call ip pre and take this line.

3. Opponent profile. With all due respect, tournament players tend to over value hands and in general are not as strong in cash games.

4. You are oop, so the opponent may raise draws and check back the turn.

After considering these reasons, AI was my decision.

Range you assigned him is too wide. Tbh folding or jamming are both fine, should be close to EV with each other. We are way behind here a decent amount, and only slightly ahead the other times or racing.

Vs tourney player I'm just jamming it in though, especially laggy/spewy.

Sorry, sorry! My apologies Franklin Dad, too many threads active at once (brings back bad memories of massively multitabling online ).

Obviously I misread it as V OOP so I'll have to revisit this later. Briefly though...

If anything V being HJ makes it even more possible he has QQ/JJ in his range than if he has to take a bizarre limp/call route pre like I originally thought! Same for TXs type hands and small FDs. I think it's an easier shove than when I had it wrong way around as V can expect greater FE IP.

I was wondering why this V was labeled as a tournament pro when he was limp/calling utg