2PM Tues afternoon, 8 handed

Table is active, almost every hand is raised or limp.

Hero (£900) - Early 30s Chinese. Sat down 2.5 hours ago with 1k, lost couple of medium pots to a LAG earlier in session. Down to £620. Have since tighten up and chipped back with position + nice hands against mainly other Vs on table. Solid image for this hand.

V (£425) - Early 50s Greek, reg, loves to chase/ bet draw and ALWAYS make polarizing bets on river, always either have it or air. Weakness include calling too many 3bets OOP, overrating top pair etc, generally a loser in all the games I have been involved with him. In this session V is down about £900 in two hours.

Hero in SB with 55

2 limpers to Hero, Hero limps, V in BB makes it £25, call, call, hero call.

(£100)

Flop

K 9 2

Hero checks, all checks.

Turn

(£100)

8

Hero checks, V bets £60, folded back to Hero......

I don't see V has any Kx, or Ax as he would have CERTAINLY bet those hands, the only hands I am worried about are KK/QQ/JJ, KK = he is trapping, QQ+JJ = The K on flop stopped him betting, and since flop checked through, he is betting.

However, my soul read tells me he has Ax (Most likely Q) with no pair, and I still have equity + FE against bigger PP without club, would you jam now or C/C brick river?

Jamming looks like you are FOS. Why would you jam into a £60 bet? If you had a hand, you'd want value and for him to make a mistake. Also, I think most people would lead turn. Do you check/raise often? If you are positive with your read, make a good-sized raise for value that he might call getting the wrong odds, but if he loves to chase, I hope the river is a good card for you. If you think he'll call an all-in with a naked Ac, go for it and good luck.

C/C is much less variance. It really is up to you and your read on this player.

Right, stack sizes don't work for a jam. It looks FOS to bet $340 to win $160 here. If he has the ace and he's feeling gambooley, he might look you up. Same with Jc10x and other "ooh, now I have a draw" hands that happen to play well against you.

And if you c/r to, say, $150, he'll still be tempted to call with his backdoor draw. The good news is, if your soul read is correct, you're forcing him to commit a lot of cash while you're ahead. But the bad news is you hate a lot of river cards, don't know which ones match his hand, and have very little fold equity.

I'd take the c/c low variance route.

If your read is correct he still has 2 overs so its not even a terrible call for a supposed call station like him to make with 14 outs.

If you have a soul read he has Ax, why do you want to chase him out of the pot? You should want to him to make a bad call on the turn.

Not sure what that means.


Fold. You may have the best hand, but he can call your raise with alot of his range. Also, you said he makes polarizing river bets. Do you really want to be facing a bet of 200 after the J hits the river?

Table is active as in we see flop every hand, either limp or raised or 3bet pot - We see flop 99%+ of hands.

From all the above posts, C/C seems to be the way to go. Thinking back here, I had between 0 - 70% equity

0% - Made Flush other than 43
4% - VS Kx, 8/9x
16% - VS set
18% - VS 1/2 pair with no
25% - VS pair with no
70% - VS A/Q/J/Tx + no pair

Hero called £60

(£220)

River

7

Hero said "Don't bluff", checks, V bets £200

C/C if you really are that confident in your soul read. V likely will make a big bet on the river if he wiffs his draw and you can snap him off for another big street of value. If the club hits, you can fold so you have implied odds.

I don't see how you can be that confident in your read though. QQ - 10,10 seem to fit the action very well as does 8,8. I don't think KK and 9,9 can be entirely eliminated either. Their are 6 combos of Ac-x that make sense, and at least 18 if not more of the others. V has plenty of outs even if you are right. I would be tempted to just fold the turn.

What is the question? obviously the river completely bricks, c/c. soul reads don't make for great discussion, if you are confident then snap it off. If you are not confident in it, fold turn.

The question is whether you would jam turn with a read rather than C/C.

C/c. If your read is right you can bleed him otr. Keep him in the hand don't chase him out. I guess you could raise the turn but I think that's bad because you have showdown value and would be better off c/c'ing they ott otr

I think you played your soul read properly. Got max value out of it whereas if you jam turn you probably only win the 60.

A lot of the posts here dont sense. If you really knew 100% he had AcQx then obviously you would jam or at least raise something that he will call while behind, to get more money in while ahead. If jamming looks FOS then that's great because he will call when you are winning.


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LOL, given results.

Well-played, OP. I think this was the lower-variance, high-value line.

I like the 'dont bluff.'