Quote:
Originally Posted by w1ngGG
Let's say you DIDN'T have 66 beat. What would you do then? I would advocate for jamming. Therefore I like jamming here when we have it. Take the bluffiest line and make V's mistake as expensive as possible.
This seems too clever by half. I am having trouble seeing how the correct play is the same whether you have air or have him beat. As someone else pointed out, it's not like the situation comes up often enough that you need to balance out your play so as not to be predictable.
I think the overbet shove is too painful for a bluffcatcher. He may think you snookered him but he will consider it too expensive to find out. I think the hand as played was just about right.
I do want to say though that if the actuarial average EV here
was greater from shoving, it doesn't matter that you won't run into this situation again. It's never exactly the same situation from hand to hand anyway, not in every detail. You just want all the hands you play to add up to the most EV possible, as long as you have sufficient bankroll to handle variance.
I just think, because this guy was not described as a complete calling station, that he was more than three times more likely to fold to the shove than to the PSB. So the shove increases variance without increasing EV, IMO.
I also think the PSB is in a Goldilocks sweet spot that definitely provides more average value than the little value bets. He might fold like 50% more often (at most), but the bet is 4x bigger.