2/5 Been at the table for 2h

EP ($700) - Station whale, has no regard for money, has no concept of relative hand strength. Would call pref raise/3b with 8Jo Q9o type of hands; would call $100 pref shove with Q4s; would call huge bet with bottom/mid pair; saw him pay off someone with TPNK on four-flush board when he has no flush.

MP ($600) - TAG, on the tight/straightforward side. Has history with hero, but nothing too noteworthy. Prob view hero as TAG too.

Hero ($700) - Has been card dead and quiet. Barely played any hand up to this point.

Whale limps EP, TAG opens MP 20, H call OTB with A2hh, whale calls.

Flop ($60) A27r one heart
Whale donks 40, TAG calls, H calls (whale donks 80%+ of the time, with or without a hand)

Turn ($180) 2o
Whale donks 100, TAG calls, H calls

River ($480) 9o
Whale checks (whale c/c river 60%+ of the time), TAG shoves for ~450 before H does

Not sure how much the whale changes the TAG's action... While some players at the table are adjusting to whale by vbetting thinner, I haven't seen TAG's showdown to confirm that. Also he has to be aware of me in the pot... Could he be shoving AK here? Or more likely better FH?

Thoughts?

I probably would have folded preflop.

But now that we are in the hand, Why not raise on the flop?
I hate having to fold this full house on the river.
We might be beat. We might not. This dude is gonna hafta show us a bigger boat, if We lose , We lose.

The only hand that beats you in this spot that is somewhat logical is 77. I believe you have to make the crying call. The dynamic of the hand could easily make the TAG think his AK, AQ, or even A9 is strong enough to extract from worse, especially since the whale is a station and he knows that you know that. I'm pretty sure this is a call.

How about AA?

I have to agree with the previous posts. I think this is a call, and if he beats us then he just beats us.

AA possible, but still think its a crying call lol.

yeah thats a call for me too, were probably worried about villian flopping a set of 77's, villian probably doesn't have you on trip 2's or a2 for that matter. You're basically reaping a single ace. If Im villain Tag I'm thinking that my kicker plays, Aq or AJ is good in this spot... villain probably plays 77's this way as well but i don't see him shoving 77's on the river when he would most likely want to bet value with *essentially the nuts.

77's would likely make it a callable raise am i right? esp if he think you're on a ace with a mediocre kicker...

seems like he is trying to isolate whale, almost to push you off your 'mediocre hand' and have whale call with his TPNK.

If your read is correct, TAG is probably not flatting 20 pre flop with AA esp with whale who will likely call a 3bet.

AA is possible but only one combo of AA since you have an A.

You gotta raise the flop here. Every time. The way the hand played out, villain could think his AK is the nuts. He could also have rivered A9. Though, I'm not sure he calls turn with A9 after you call flop bet behind him.

His range on the turn should be like AA, 77, AJ+ if he is even semi-competent. There are no draws. Is it at all possible he opened a hand like K2 suited? If you can add any twos into his range it's definitely a call on river. If not, he should only be shoving AA, 77 and some discounted combos of AK. If he has AK though, he has to be worried you can have 77. And AK probably isn't getting called by worse on the river when he shoves. Unless he's targeting you having exactly AQ and making a crying call.

At first I thought it was definitely a call, but 77 and AA are the only hands that reeeeeally make sense. That said, there are so many bad players it's a call if he's anything but competent.

TAG opened

oops misread that... I still think in MP 20 seems kind of light with aces.... I guess it would help to know what standard raise is at this game.... thats 4 times the blind, esp when he's back $700, I'm thinking that most competent players are betting at least $30+ with aces, sounds like this 2-5 game is relatively deep...

The more I read into this, the more it seems villain was attempting to isolate whale with a huge river bet with a TPTK, TTP type of hand. The fact that you flopped top and bottom most likely never crossed villain's mind and the deuce on the turn was nothing more than a brick in his mind. AA also can make sense in this spot as well, but the fact that you flopped an ace would be a strong deterrent in believing villain had AA. Also, opening AA for $20 is a bit light in every $2/$5 game I've ever played.

Realistically, we lose to 3 combos of 77 and 1 combo of AA. There are 8 possible combos of AK, so even if V only takes this line with AK 25% of the time, that alone is enough to make this a call. We're clearly repping Ax, and the whale is a whale. I don't even think it's a "thin" value bet at all with AK; it's more of a mandatory value bet.

It seems pretty straight forward to me to call. Sounds like it was a cooler if you lost.

Call and lose to 77.

I don't see how you can consider folding here.

He is shoving AK/A9 and maybe AQ/AJ for value if he is any good.

There is 1 combo of AA and 3 combos of 77 and it seems like the whale has a piece that is an A or a 7 too.

If he got to the river somehow with 99, well that sucks. But its pretty unlikely.

the fact that you post it here makes us sure that you called and lost, but you did the right thing

Unlikely as it is, I don't think you can completely disregard AA. Especially if he's trying to bait the whale.
The real possibility of 77 just sucks, cooler, etc. If TPTK or similar, congrats.

No power on earth could stop me from raising that flop. I like the slowplay otf with a set.

Grunch.

The only hands I'm worried about are AA, 77. I seriously discount 99 because I can't imagine V ever calling down a 2 outer. Feels more like a strong ace, and 2.

AA could be in, easily slowplaying after raising pre and getting whale to donk...

The shove feels like he wants only whale to call...

I would have much preferred a raise OTT.

Edit: As played probably a fold with only 160 invested. This is gross, and definition of WA/WB.

Fold pre, raise flop, be happy to get it in with a fh

I'm usually raising flop but with the LAG leading, TAGs probably going to be handcuffed into calling a lot of their Ax range on the turn, which means your still in good shape to get it in by the river.

After calling the flop, I'm definitely raising to around 270 to induce a turn shove from whale.

Not that this would have been an objective to raising the turn, but as it turns out, you can make an easy lay down once Tag is revealed.

As played, Not saying I could always make this laydown but I can't see anything your beating other than 1 or 2 A9s combos.

Please don't raise the flop, there is no reason too. Why are we ignoring A9s and A7s from the tag's range? they are also fairly likely with the 20$ raise.

A7 in particular is very likely to shove here and very likely to take the same line as you for value :-? particularly on a paired turn.

First... this is a great spot to min-raise OTF. Nobody is likely folding, and a min-raise basically guarantees you get stacks in OTT. Top and bottom pair is way more vulnerable then you might think. AK has 30% equity, and against 2 villains, you have only about 60% equity. So get another bet in there.

Second... let's say you raise the flop and (darn our luck) our TAG sigh/folds his KK-. Yes, you maybe lost the chance to pick up some more $$$ against him. But in return, you've dramatically increased your chance of stacking the Whale (since we assume he never folds).

Third... let's say you min raise and somehow when it gets back to the TAG he comes over the top (whether or not the Whale 3b). I think you can be pretty happy about letting your hand go at that point. Pretty unlikely TAG is going to try to get stacks in here OTF with AK-, since he has to then be afraid of your set.

So, IMO, this is a spot where you really should put another bet out there OTF. Top-and-bottom pair is just not strong enough to slow play.

~~~~~

As played, you have to call OTR because the Whale is likely to overcall.

If it was heads up, you're getting 2:1 on your call, so you need be good only 33% of the time. As folks have stated above, only 3 combos of 77 and 1 combo of AA, vs. at least 8 combos of AK-. So heads up, its a call, if a thin one.

But when the Whale overcalls, then you're getting 3:1 and its a call an its not even close.

So even if the Whale overcalls only 1/2 the time, then (roughly) you're going to be getting like 2.5:1, which it seems like a plenty good price.

Please never fold A2hh pre, in position in live 2/5 against a whale with a stack, for 4 measly BBs.

He either binked A9, feels really good with AK, MAYBE AQ since you didn't repop on the button (I would too), or he had you the whole way. No one has you on a 2. No one bluffs that whale. He bets A7 on that flop in MP, and probably doesn't raise it pre. He doesn't raise A2 pre, probably. Would he merge here to fold you and entice whale? Nah. You would know better than I would, though. Let's hope he would, because spoiler: you're calling.

There are so few possible combos that beat you vs ones that don't here, call and if you're coolered, you're coolered. Since you posted, I bet you were coolered.