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Originally Posted by ImAllInNow
I agree to some extent.
Agree to what part and disagree to what part? I can not address that until I know what you agree with and what you don't.
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you do realize that sets and straight draws have 7 outs vs us and two pair has 4 outs right? I'm probably facing around 8-9 outs on average against me and any card 5 to Queen could be the one that beats me but I can't know for sure. .
I am very well aware if what you might be up against, but I am also aware that you flopped the joints, and are sitting on 130BB preflop. Your thinking should not be based how you are going to get outdrawn, rather how you are going to get all the chips in the middle.
If there was a FD on the board or we were sitting deeper (at least +200BB deep) I would be advocating raise raise raise like everybody else to build/to protect/to charge, but with our eff. stacks/ and the board as dry as it is, we have to plan around committment/doubling up not around how to avoid getting outdrawn.
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Seems a little risky to flat.
Yes it is risky. It is a simple risk/reward issue, but we are risking only 130BB. If we were deeper, flatting the flop would not be the best line to take not only because of the risk but also because we need to start building the pot to extract maximum value.
With our eff. stack neither building nor protecting our hand is as important as when we are deep. We should be able to get max. value from our hands by the river if any of the V's have any reasonable holdings to continue with, and if we are not willing to risk our 130bb eff. stack with this hand and board, we are better off not playing these speculative hands in the first place.
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Are you planning on donking blank and semi-blank turn cards or trying to check-raise? I was considering a line where I call flop and then donk $60 on blank turns to induce spaz from V1. Dunno. It would be pretty terrible to have the hand check through on the turn and give them two cards for 8-9 outs and lose the pot like a third of the time.
If V2 had folded I would almost assuredly have flatted.
I would lead on the turn for about 45%-55% of the pot to:
1) extract value from all sets /2 pair/ stubborn TP hands
2) to protect against/ charge draws giving them the wrong odds to chase
3) Induce from BUT if he is in the habit of continuing his flop aggression on later streets.
4) Give BB an opportunity to reraise if he is slowplaying a set.