So villain is a good reg but i think he overfolds to me in some spots. I have 1400 v covers.

5 handed, v opens the button to 20, its short handed and waiting for a table to open but im going to pack up n leave and well Im on the SB and find a decent hand

k3

and 3bet to 65

V calls

Here i think his flatting range is strong, no need to get involved with anything weak

Give him flatting range of AJs+, pps up to TT KQs folding everything else

Flop 3J2

I bet 100 and villain calls

Turn 6

Ibet 225 and v calls

River black nine

Hero?

475 call a shove
Or $50 And 3bet jam when he makes it $500

Flop bet is too big imo.

As played flop and turn. River seems like time to bet small as there are very few bluffs here I think AX being the majority of them and tough to say how many offsuit Ace combos you 3-bet pre.

So I'd bet something like $225 again.

Looks like he's calling a river bet for sure on this runout if he puts you on a bluff.

What exactly does that achieve? He'll snap off any pair that he flatted the turn with.

475

Your point is he'll call more? I mean, maybe, but I think a small bet is best on this river. OP did say he thinks villain overfolds.

350-400

There's 780 itp otr. Make it just over 500 (like 515) and watch him snap off your "bluff". Betting smaller is bad and misses value; if he's calling 225, he's calling more.

What were you planning to do when the turn bricks for you? What about when it bricks and hits his range?

Also

...take your own advice pf.

Agree with this massively. I think the majority of his range wants to call and showdown here so feel you have to bet big. Its going to suck if you bomb it and he flats with a set or something, but meh - it gets the most from his range which I imagine is 1 pair type hands.

I think a lot of the tricky options like betting 50 to induce or going for a c/r are FPS without a solid read on his range.

Well only one person mentioned pre but this play is a relic from my days online grinding 6max sit n gos and MTTs. Its actually a super strong 3betting hand short handed AND short stacked. I once won a big MTT with K4s 3betting a button raise at the final table

But i dont like it nearly as much this deep and when cev=ev. The 20 in the pot means nothing and there are no antes.

So villain has to have a really strong hand like JJ or an overpair but I think he 4bets QQ+

Anyway, just wanted to see if i could ever get away here.

Results: hero overbet shoves and villain snaps with AdQd

Not quite getting PF range estimate. Are you saying he flats with 22 - TT, AJs - AKs, and KQs and folds or 4b everything else? So he, presumably 4b with AKo but flats with AKs?

What about weaker suited aces? He's folding ATs, A9s here?

I don't mind the 3b pre. Should be situational and rare.

I like the flop bet (assuming that's a pretty typical size for you).

I like the turn bet (again, if typical).

I think betting 50 OTR won't work. If it's a bluff, he doesn't need to raise. If it's to induce, raising would be bad. I think he's just going to suspiciously call.

If he's got the nut flush, you're going broke no matter what you do, so ignore that. (And there's only 1 combo in your range, along with any fudge factor.)

Given you range for him, everything he has is a bluff catcher or the stonies. 3b, b/b/b is a highly polarized line. Either you've got the nut(tish) flush or you're bluffing. $500 doesn't make much difference compared to $1000 there.

As long as he calls $1000 more than half as often as he calls $500, it'll make more money.

I'd jam and hope he thinks your line if FoS and snaps it off.