You can fold a10 here against competent players and nits. Against bad players here you can never fold because they think q10,k10 is the nuts here. Bad players don't realize the difference in value between a10,k10,q10 here especially when deep and they treat all those hands the same. Good players and nits know the differerence and treat each hand accordingly. Villain can't expect anyone to fold 10x here which is exactly why he does the massive overraise here with 55. He doesn't know we're folding a10 here. The problem with raising a hand like q10, j10 here is that trips no kicker may find a fold AND k10,a10,55 crush us AND basically nobody is foldin k10,a10,55 here.

You're absolutely right about this, except that Tx is only a very small portion of our range.

Go ahead, make a reasonable range of hero's opening.

This post illustrates why LAGs are so profitable against ABC players and nits.

It really doesn't take much to fold out the two type because they have some serious MUBS.

I am late to the thread but I don't think preflop has been discussed enough. Hero said the 15 raise was small for him which I think allows V to eliminate JJ+ from Hero's range. So on the flop V knows that Hero is cbetting Tx, FD, or some weak hand that won't contribute more anyways. So if V flopped strong a big raise here is correct for him.

OP, would V consider T9s-QTs in your preflop 15 raising range? If so, then he could have KT and maybe QT. If not, this is usually AT or 55. I discount flush draws heavily based on your blocker and his sizing. He can accomplish the same semibluff effect with much smaller sizing and lower risk with the blinds yet to act.

Lol I see people raise small pf with AA way more than I see them raise small with a bad hand

They want people to fold when they have a bad hand and want people to call when they have a good hand.

It still doesn't matter unless hero has only been c-betting with the very top of his range, and villain knows that.

Come on guys...I thought this is 2013 and we understand "range".

CLIFFNOTES: Last post, sorry so long. Rehash of my points plus refutation of Neutrogena thinking a LAG could be making a play here. LAGs don't try to win these sorts of pots on the flop vs ranges that will never fold. I also whip my johnson out and wave it around a little.

You are leveling yourself.

I play 2/5nl and 2/5nl deep stack ($2k max buy-in) 5 days a week, and i've been doing so for the past two years so my posts come from everyday experience.

And you are absolutely leveling yourself if you think Villain is thinking to himself, "Hero is a nit, therefore I'm going to bluff on this top paired flush draw board to fold out his AA, KK, QQ, JJ hand..."

That is just ridiculous ego-maniac self leveling that is the bane of thinking players.

I broke out my logic step by step and your refutations were laughable. It almost feels like you are a Poker After Dark junky and have this unrealistic understanding of how 2/5nl plays out in real life and instead relying on Rounders and PAD logic here...

Here is a more basic breakdown of what I consider the facts in this hand.

#1) Eff stacks are $1k, pot starts off at $60!!!! Several players in the hand are at $1k+

#2) Villain is competent

#3) Near as we can tell, Hero's perceived image is competent

#4) Hero shows a ton of strength on the flop

#5) Villain's raise will result in an SPR < 1.3 if called meaning turn bet will be playing for stacks

#6) Less than 95% of LLSNL players fold trip tens here and a competent villain would know this!

Those are the major facts here. In order for our call to be right here we need to level ourselves into thinking that

A) A "competent" villain would overplay KT, QT, JT in this spot

B) A "competent" villain would focus ONLY on hero and try to bluff Hero off a scary board that Hero has shown tons of strength with a PSB on flop

C) A "competent" villain is trying to bluff off a random Tx trips on a paired FD board because said villain thinks he is super awesome

D) Said villain is committed to bluffing nearly 1/3rd his stack and setting up a situation where he'd have to continue his bluff by shoving turn for a total of $1k for a pot that started out $60 on flop.

E) Villain is convinced Hero is a "nit" and can bluff off a "nit" who has put in a PSB on this board (how many nits lead out a PSB on this flop with an overpair BTW??? I would contend that a decent % of nits would NOT lead the flop with an overpair and would just wait till turn to reevaluate because that's what nits do on scary boards...


Anyways, look. If you follow my post history you will see I like to spend a lot of time on threads that I feel serve as the dividing line between winning players and players that crush and this is that thread.

We are in a situation of what I like to call an "inflection point". This is the exact point in the hand that decides whether or not we are going to play for $1k stacks and get it in 200bb deep when we are only vested $50 in the hand.

Whenever I reach this inflection point vs a competent player and the writing is on the wall that we are going to be playing for stacks then I try to ascend to my A-game.

Are there FD + SD or FD + pair combos that villain can be semi-bluffing? No.

Would a competent villain ever try to semi-bluff a non-nut FD in this spot on a paired board? No.

Would a competent villain commit to playing for 200bb stacks with JT, QT here? No.

Would a competent villain commit to playing for 200bb stacks with KT? Debatable but I lean to No.

Would a competent villain try to bluff in this spot on this board vs villains that have him covered? No.

So what in the hell does all of the above leave us with?

It leaves us with AT and 55 and a very improbable T5s (one combo).

Look, I know that the convention is to just jam the money in and say, "Well, it was a cooler there was nothing you could have done" and I'm telling you that in this situation that is simply not true.

If you are good enough here you can and SHOULD find a fold. You need to seriously re-read my posts in this thread. I have not wavered here and I've been painful in trying to outline my logic step by step.

And for the nth time, if V was a rec-fish, donk, or aggro then no we CAN'T fold. So lets be clear about that.

But against competent villains and nits and scared money players, we can and SHOULD find a fold here.

Now, if we were 100bb deep, this becomes a much harder decision because at 100bb deep villain's range can widen to include KT and maybe even Kxs flush draws???

But the game significantly changes at 200bb deep. That is a big mental and emotional leap to play for 200bb instead of 100bb and that is exactly what villain is doing when he puts in such a gross overbet raise on flop vs multiple villains in the hand that can stack him.

And again, this is what i refer to as "prison raping" and I do it all the time and I talk about it all the time on 2+2 and it owes its roots to online play where villains shove with the nuts or near nuts for ridiculous amounts hoping someone has a strong hand that can't fold. Or better yet, that someone levels themselves into calling thinking "why so much"...

I would offer a slight correction. Even though I never said V reads us for Tx, I just said V reads us as strong. But V's overbet raise isn't so much because he puts us on Tx, but rather he is just hoping ANYONE has Tx because no one at LLSNL folds Tx in this spot even crap kickers. Just doesn't happen on a FD board. Players level themselves into calling with Tx here and that goes doubly so if there is a FD on the board.

Actually, I would say this post does the exact opposite. The overwhelming response in this thread has been to call, not fold. And because most players are never folding Tx, most winning LAGs would never ever try to bluff this board on flop because a winning LAG would know that FDs and Tx aren't folding.

In general, winning LAGs don't try to win hands on boards like this on the flop betting such that they lower the SPR to under 1.3. That is not how winning LAGs play.

Winning LAGs take bet-bet-bet or call-c/r-bet or bet-raise-bet type lines and they pot control such that they leave their opponents enough chips so that they can fold turn or river.

Winning LAGs like to target scary and/or garbage boards like 8 4 9 6 5 rainbow and they float and bet-bet-bet... with the intent to steal, setting themselves up so they can make use of a river scare card.

What winning LAGs DO NOT DO is blast wet flops vs multiple villains hoping to fold out hands that would never fold like Tx or terribad FDs and then if called the LAG only leaves himself with a shove on turn, a shove that hands that called the flop can't fold to... No, that is not what winning LAGs do.

Also, nothing in OP's descriptions says villain is a LAG, so not sure where you get that from???

Basically, you are just plain wrong. And if after all this you still can't see it, then there is nothing more I can do or say.

God, how about we stick to the points of discussion.

Have I not?

Do I make points by attacking the person or strengthen them by saying I am a winning player?

Anyhow, I can't respond now, but I'll do it tonight.

Don't be so defensive dgiharris. My comments are not aimed to attack you as a person, but clearly I disagree with your points.

Respond to them if you like, but do keep them on point please.

Grunch.

First off all, you are sitting too deep after running it up from 40 Beibers to 400 beibers IMO. Cash out, go get some food, chill, come back in a couple hours and sit down somewhere else or play another game.

Second, before I say "sorry he had 55 now go to BBV" just kidding, realistically I can see him popping this with K10, Q10, J10. Why? because I don't see why he couldn't put you on an overpair or even AKss,-AJss so in his mind he is raising with the best hand.

Third, In the most conservative of range assignments I think you are behind 2 hands (105, & 55), ahead of at least 3 hands (K10,Q10, J10) in which case it's a tough decision. There are still several other albeit less likely hands he might do this with (mid pairs 66-99) worse flush draws etc. Is it not possible he is putting you on a one pair hand and just trying to take it from playing deep?

I don't know what I'd do but shoving can not be bad.

I don't necessarily disagree with you in general, but OP said the 15 raise was low and that V had been playing with him for several hours. As such, I think V can put the read on Hero that this 15 raise is not AA.

That makes absolutely no sense

11t,

I respect you, but you have this exactly backwards.

When was the last time you saw a "good player" try to bluff you off a big hand for $1k??? It just doesn't happen. A good player knows that no one folds trips like ever and thus a good player is going to have learned the hard way that you can't bluff these spots and they won't even try it in a multiway pot on this board.

So eliminate "bluff" from villain's range. If we were talking heads up and Hero and Villain were in a leveling war then maybe.... But we aren't. This is straight up so take it for what its worth.

A good player is going to play big hand big pot small hand small pot. And at 200bb he is not itching to play for stacks with JT, QT hands and will just go for the normal value bets...

Conversely, a bad player has no clue about relative hand strength and will overplay ANY Tx. I'm talking T2, T3, T8, JT, doesn't matter. Bad players think in terms of caveman poker. "Haz trips, trips is good hand, must shove!!!"

I could never in a million years fold this spot to a bad player because their range contains ANY TEN and even flush draws.

But against a good player, a competent player... we can fold.

I think this is leveling yourself. This is just not a good spot to try to "bluff" and the effective stacks behind help ensure that this is not a bluff. Good players don't try to bluff pots like this when strength has been shown, but rather they pick their bluff spots when the board takes a sudden turn and/or that miracle scare card hits and/or weakness is shown.

None of that has happened here. Weak trappy trappy passive passive players go for the c/r with Tx all the time. So just because the blinds checked doesn't mean much yet. Most bluffers would wait till the turn or river here to bluff and use the action on flop to gain information. Speaking of the flop, Hero leads out for a PSB and Tx is in our range as well as perhaps JJ/QQ... Without history of a leveling war I seriously doubt V tries to bluff this spot.

If V were to take a bluff line, wouldn't the best bluff line be to flat flop in position and see how the flop plays out, namely hoping that both blinds fold. Ideally, both blinds fold and NOW V is heads up vs Hero in position. V would then use Hero's turn bet to gauge what bluff line to take. V's flat in position on flop on this board should look like Tx waiting to pounce on turn or a FD. So then V would use the turn to set up his bluff would he not? If a spade hit on turn and Hero freezes then V can rep a flush. If the turn bricks and Hero bets pot again V would have to reevaluate if he wants to continue a bluff line. If the turn bricks and Hero checks or bets 1/2 pot then V can bet or raise to set up his river bluff or even just win the pot on the turn... However, the worst bluff option would be to raise flop for 1/3 stacks. #1) blinds are still left to act and being trappy trappy with Tx is a staple of LLSNL players OOP and #2 if Hero calls then V's only chance to win is a turn shove which would have a low probability of working since Hero called such a big flop raise...

We play in very different games, I see chr with air and big bluffs all the time.

With the right read this is a fold but given they information provided by op it isn't. The fact that he had been hero calling big pots with mp widens the value raising range significantly and makes our hand stronger.

Also lol dude this its the perfect board to bluff since we can rep Tx so easily vs a nit. I think you are inferring way too here and given the information I can't recommend a fold here. I'm not saying I don't fold in game but I might have very different reads.



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Sorry for any personal attacks, I apologize.

I guess I feel very strong here on this point because imo this is the dividing line between good winning players 7bb - 9bb per hour winrate vs players who crush at 10bb+/hr winrate.

I know I can come off as condescending at times and a prick at other times especially when I feel I'm right. And I guess we all feel we are right.

Fair enough. I made my points as best I can, you have made yours.

It comes down to ranging and what we feel a "competent" villain could have and what he would do.

So if our opinions differ on that point then obviously the end result will differ.

TTHRIC as far as I'm concerned.

Good thread, good discussion

100% this. 100%. I can't agree more strongly enough. If Villain is supposedly a decent player his range should really tend more towards air for that size of a raise. Plus this isn't a 200 bb bluff, I dunno where dgi is pulling that one from. It's a 60 bb bluff, and I see regs willing to pull that all the time on the flop.

Why? Villain's bluff is designed to fold the blinds when they have anything other than Tx. He doesn't want to price in flush draws when he can use the flush as bluff outs on the turn and river. He's setting up the perfect sizing to ship ugly turn cards by isoing a nit.

I don't agree with this at all, people do weird crap like that all the time with big hands

This.

I don't doubt the Overbet is for value, but we are still ahead of a lot of v's value range.

OP was the pfr, the question was asked earlier itt if we really think someone will stack off hundreds of bbs with an overpair (which is why v would Overbet us)

Um, yes. I make it happen all the time.

If I was villain in this hand I would play it the same way and still expect to get paid by AA/KK from alot of villains. Seriously.

I'd be surprised to see AT and a bit tilted that I found an opponent capable of folding it.

Let me elaborate: if I have been playing with an opponent for 7 hours and I see him show down big PPs after a 25-30 raise preflop and speculative hands like SCs, suited aces, and broadways after a 15 raise preflop, then I am going to use that sizing tell in the future. I think the V in this hand is good enough to do that. Obviously, its never 100% accurate, but I use this sizing tell often to make light 3bets. OP himself said that the 15 raise was small for him and typical raises were 25-30. He also said it was a loose table, so Hero would be expected by Villian raise more with a premium hand preflop.

Yeah but hero just said he did something weird without giving context which means villain could take it anyway possible.

Results? I'm ssuming hero shipped and got called by 55

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I'd push all in....

What happened?

Probably, heh.

results are already shown, hero tanked pretty hard and long, eventually got called time on and folded face up and got shown 55.

reading the results is pretty interesting, since although i agree with DGI in terms of good LAGs having specific hands here, i don´t feel villain is actually a good lag based on the results post (talked, kinda gave it away, showed the cooler, etc...)

Post 38

[QUOTE=dgiharris;39468595][B]CLIFFNOTES:
i think this was mostly about what a competent player would do or would not do. do you realize that a really competent player is really gonna exploit you if he realizes you fold AT in that spot? i mean, you are only continuing with TT then, and he has such an easy bluff on all semi-lockdown boards with deep stacks./QUOTE]

villain is basically being described as a rock star here right? If he's that good then there is zero chance he is only raising the nuts or near nuts in this spot, he has to be somewhat balanced. Call, check/shove turn. That seems to make the most sense to me.

I mean villain knows we have very few T's in our opening range and we probably open limp 55 being the short buying super nit, we never have T5s, and we probably can fold over pairs like JJ-QQ easily to a raise like this, so unless villain saw our exact hand I kind of hate his line.