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2/5 flop 3bet or not? 2/5 flop 3bet or not?

10-06-2010 , 06:10 AM
stacks
villain 600ish
hero 1000

history
haven't seen villain play too many hands (tight)
villain seems decent
decent as in good enough to lay down hands and make moves
have yet to see villain go to showdown
hero's image been tight aggressive
showed a bluff earlier in the night and then valuetown hands with the same exact line

*edit* there are 2 huge fishes sitting right of villain, when villain is in a hand with hero without the fishes, his hand range is more defined

anyway
preflop
all limps
hero (bb) AQ - raises to 35
villain calls (MP)
villain's possible range for calling (suited broadways, PP<10)

flop (80$)
772
hero bets 30
hero is going to give up if called

**would you fire another barrel here if called?

but villain raises to 120
villain's range is so narrow and i dont put villain on a 7 or deuces
his raising range is OC+FD or PP

now hero's decision
should we just give up?
or should we 3bet and knows that villain will give up a good amount of time
when we 3bet we are repping aa, kk, and maybe qq

against any pocket pairs jacks or below we have about 24% equity
against OverCards(KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, JdTd, Jd9d, Td9d) + FD we have about 50% equity

i know many of you likes to play fit or fold especially live (NITS)
but this seems like a good spot to bluff with good amount of equity

anyway, hero decided to 3bet to 400
yes hero is pot committing himself, if villain shoves, it's easy call

Last edited by dangomango; 10-06-2010 at 06:35 AM.
2/5 flop 3bet or not? Quote
10-06-2010 , 06:57 AM
all limps? so every single player at the table limps to the bb and you make it only $30 more?

then you bet an amount on the flop which gives him almost 4-1 odds, and looks incredibly weak.

ooooo K.

and he raises. however, even given your weak bet which is just begging to get raised, its pretty unlikely he has decided to to turn J10 into some random bluff raise, however its not impossible. what Im saying is, even if he is bluffing with rags some non zero % of the time, your equity vs the hand range you assigned him is still 50/50 (obv):

125,730 games 0.005 secs 25,146,000 games/sec

Board: 7d 7c 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.292% 47.83% 01.47% 60131 1843.50 { AsQc }
Hand 1: 50.708% 49.24% 01.47% 61912 1843.50 { JJ-22, AQs-A9s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, JTo, J5o, 72o }


Of course, you do have some fold equity, but the stack sizes are a little awkward for a raise. If you had made a standard cbet of $40-60, his raise would have been larger and then you could push cleanly. Hes not folding his flush draws after raising, so basically you can only fold out some of the smaller pairs 33-99 maybe, or get him to somehow hero-fold JJ or 1010.

Yes, your raise looks very strong, and basically says "I have a huge overpair." However, he may be mentally committed to the hand and/or put YOU on a flush draw and decide to call with pocket fives or something.

While making it $400 or pushing looks very strong and screams AA/KK/QQ, I dont think he raise/folds enough of his range to make 3betting the flop a profitable play. Furthermore, I think you should have either raised more preflop or checked your option, and definitely cbet larger if you do manage to get the flop heads up. Not horrible overall, but I think you could pick a better spot to make a move, barring some specific read on the villain which you never mentioned.
2/5 flop 3bet or not? Quote
10-06-2010 , 08:34 AM
yes definitely raise bigger pre + definitely cbet bigger
i was cbetting with the mentally of folding lol - so weak tight
then his raise defined his range and opened further options for me

*edit* wouldn't this awkward stacksize put FD on a difficult spot compared to bigger preflop raise + bigger flop cbet
because if bigger preflop raise + flop cbet, FD will pot commit themselves if they raise
here this is not quite the case
2/5 flop 3bet or not? Quote
10-06-2010 , 10:06 AM
we are dog to PP
we are dog to FD
we are crushed by 7x
we are ahead of air raise which we have no idea if villain is capable

i think the answer to this line is obvious
2/5 flop 3bet or not? Quote
10-06-2010 , 11:05 AM
As played, call, jam any turn.
Logic, if he has a made hand on flop (pp), his raise is not for value there (4X a weak looking cbet which scream AK) hero already said our image is TAG and this bet is not, & villain is capable of moves, therefore bluff/ semi bluff. Our call then shove non diamond turn looks massively like we flatted flop for pot control then happy to get our chips in to protect vs flush draw (reppin aa kk qq). If diamond turn and we shove, he's got a hard time callin off his stack if he has pp and drawing dead. So if he is semi bluffing with fd we are only stacking off on 9/47 diamonds left. If he wants to make a massive call vs your tag image and this line good luck to him. Nb. This line is only persued cos villain is a seemingly good player. Vs fish- evacuate.

Anaylsis welcome
2/5 flop 3bet or not? Quote

      
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