Let's say our effective stacks are 100bb and I call a 5x raise prf coming from a Nit with 34 on the Bttn...flop comes 953...The Nit pots it on the flop (10bb bet on the flop.) Now do I get it in being a slight favorite versus all overpairs even though I most likely don't have any FE or do I just call flop and turn bets which would probably be another pot sized bet on the turn (30bb)???

A shove here is spew. Anything that calls you has you beat. If he is a nit then hes nit betting light. You're chasing roughly 35% at making you're flush (which still only names your flush 4 high.) If there is not fold equity then you might as well flat and hope to improve on 4th street.

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fold 34s pre

i'd raise vs a nit
he might fold and nothing is sweeter than getting it all in vs a nits aa and stacking him
if you watch closely you can see them die a little inside

I see nits fold here all the time and say guess you flopped a set! Get it in

You are 51/49 favorite against AA. You are going to be a 32/68 dog on the turn if it completely bricks (not counting you picking up BDSD). If you flat, you need to get 2:1 direct odds on the turn in order to make the correct call. Your implieds are fairly low since you most likely aren't getting paid V a nit on 9 of your outs.

So, would you rather flat the flop making a 40bb pot OTT and hope he bets less than pot?

Or would you rather raise, building the pot as a favorite with 5% FE on the flop and 10% FE on the turn AND give yourself a +EV situation even if he donkjams the turn?

I raise to 35BB and jam all turns if checked to.

if you're a favorite, raise for value. You might have a teeny, tiny bit of FE, but you don't need it if you're a favorite.

Another reason to raise here is that by raising big draws, we can also raise sets. I know my friends in the forum will say balancing isn't important at these stakes - I agree with them for the most part, but I think it makes me tougher to play against, which is a good thing.

I would say the 2+2 handle is fitting for this hand history.


As played I would ship it.

Pre is a fold, your getting 20:1 implied on a call which really isnt enough to be calling with the bottom of your suited connectors.

On this flop, a shove is +ev, but it's also a very exploitative strategy, which depending on your opponent can be good or bad. I think vs a nit who isnt thinking much about hand ranges a shove is ok. Against a better player, its pretty obvious a good player would never overbet shove a set here.

If your worried about balance, and playing optimally, i like a raise to 30-35bb ip. Instead of calling a psb on flop and potential psb on turn, we set our price to draw to two cards. If we brick turn take the free card, since there probably isnt much fe if hes already called the flop. If we spike stack sizes are good to shove.

Yes

This is one of the best balancing reasons at LLSNL, IMO. Opening your prF raising range up is probably bad for most people in this forum, but being able to mix it up with your world draws and made hands is for sure +EV and will get you to that next level of poker.

Yes and Kind of yes... can raise a decent amount and do the same thing. Either way, raise/gii or shove. Just make sure we shove our made hands in this spot from time to time too, but really thats the least of your worries.

If he is doing the same with his made hands then it is perfectly fine.... and something in LLSNL may be exploitable, but it doesn't mean we can be exploited. In fact the most exploited plays are probably the ones that work the best in LLSNL - wait for the nuts and get paid.

You aren't playing for stacks if a heart hits the turn, not against a nit anyways. More than likely going to get MUBSy. Maybe even if you make two pair because of the straight draw. I think shoving OTF has a good amount of FE against nits, and even though we have the best equity we more than likely don't have the best hand ATM. Pretty easy shove or raise/gii and let the math do the rest.

raise flop, shove any river.

against a nit, you will likely get a fold on the flop or turn, because most likely he has only 2 cards to improve.
i see nits raise big pre, make one pot sized bet on the flop and then are just happy to get to showdown when the board gets scarey, so when you get a hand (like the hand you have) you gotta exploit their fears with the overpair exspecially since at worst you are a 51-49% favorite.

Certainly never shoving

With those stacks I raise but not shove flop (call an AI), I shove a checked turn almost regardless of card, and fold to a turn bet if blank.

Thanks to all those who offered helpful advice and to those who just put a little hater sauce on my thread, I leave you with this blessing. "May the fleas of a thousand camels infest your crotch and may your arms be too short to scratch."

Raising is optimal here I think. Combining fold equity with your hand's equity can never be a bad play. And if villain is a nit you always have fold equity.

If he bets 15-20bb on the turn go all in. It looks less like a bluff if we wait till the turn.

Jamming the flop with a flush draw is a fish play.

Raise. Even nits will c-bet with AK.

Shoving this flop is unorthodox, however very correct IMO. And I dont need to balance in these games at all, ever, as nobody is going to exploit us (they wont play with us long enough to know what we do in other spots.)

If you raise, they will place you on a draw and figure they must protect their hand and thus 3 bet about always. If you shove, you take the "play" away from them, leaving them to be a simple CALLER. Nobody loves being the caller. Every piece of literature tells players NOT to be a caller, but be the aggressor. Taking the aggressive play away from this villain gives the best chance of FE if we have any at all. We most likely dont. However 5% is better than none. You raise, you have zero FE. Simple.


Anyone thinking raising is better? I would love to hear what hands he folds to a raise
vs the hands he may fold to a shove. We are not folding, period, so our stack is going in either way. Maximize the fold equity here, its all you have going for you other than you are slight fav over AA. Get 5% FE which would turn this flip into a profitable situation.

Raising turn had more fold equity. Result?

I'd rather raise and let him think we're bluffing and ship over top. We're never folding with the dead money in the pot. Raise/call on the flop. Nets either stack off with over pairs or they don't. A raise to 30bb is essentially a shove.

^^THIS!

I'm never shoving 100bb in to a 20bb pot with a Set. I'm expecting a ~30bb bet ott if I call the flop. When not just bump it of to 35bb now? This gives us a little fold equity and will get us to the river cheaper. Against a nit I don't think I'm shoving a missed turn if he calls the flop raise. At least not unless I have reason to believe he would call the flop raise but fold the turn.

Just call mate, you'll pretty much always be correct in calling, whereas raising as like a 51% favourite isn't going to make you much money.

Calling and seeing if you hit, then extracting from the nit who can't fold his over pair is much better.

The money we make when we hit and extract as an overwhelming favourite waaay >>>> the money earned from combined FE, 2% edge, can't be bluffed off our hand, and outs V has with two overs.

no no no do not call, raise against nit dude you have more fold equity than you think and your're never a giant dog here. flatting kills your equity when you brick turn.

im curious to know exactly what range we're supposed to be a favorite against...

I suppose we have like a 1 percent edge if we take all the hands with hearts out of his range but im not entirely sure thats a reasonable assumption.... if we give him a rational range were probably about a 54-46 dog.

You are not a favorite over AA. spit balling youre about 48% against aces.