2/5 deep AA on low wet board facing pressure
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 205
A little drunk here so bear with me.
I have around 700, been playing TAG, definitely tight... pick up AA (red) UTG and make it 20.
I get called by B and BB.
B has me well covered, he's at atleast 2k. he's shown down well so far, but certainly loose. i saw him show down k2s when he binked a 2 on the river and cracked a nut straight to make a full house. also re-raised kk and got it in against qq but he's been pretty cally pre-flop... 30 year old white guy drinking a little.
Flop is like 7s 6s 4c
I make it 35 and he re-pops it to 120.
In hindsight, I think our best bet here is to c/c.
If we do choose to bet what is our plan against a villain with a wide range but we suspect is capable of making moves.
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 1,987
I'm never not c-betting this vs a loose player, unless he's also extra aggressive, in which case I'd opt for a c/r. Unless we've seen him raise light, I'd consider laying down flop. If we call, I'm not sure how I feel about calling just one more street of betting, let alone two. I think the 88-JJ range here flat calls hoping to keep in worse hands. Since he flatted the BTN, I'd say he's capped. If you've seen him get aggro w/ draws, maybe call, but I have a feeling we're beat here a good amount of the time.
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 2,135
Never folding. Call and evaluate the turn. I'd plan to bet/fold most turn cards. Villain can't expect semi-bluffs to have a lot of FE if you call his flop raise and then lead the turn. You want to get value from his draws and worse pairs. Another turn raise should mean two pair or a set.
Bet smaller on the flop. I think $25 gets value from worse without risking a bloated pot on a draw heavy board oop.
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 897
It really depends how long you have been playing with him. Have we seen villain raise with anything in any non pf context except when he is nutted? Your cbet was pretty small so it might of induced. Very difficult to give good advice w/o more reads here. I would lean towards shoving/folding>calling unless you call planning on not folding a decent amount of the time. Hard to say which w/o better reads. If you have been playing with villain for hours and he only shows aggression with the goods then its an easy fold. If not then i think I would most likely shove/raise to gii.
Don't cbet small b/c "you are worried about bloating the pot on a draw heavy board oop". I would bet 2/3ish+ here almost every time unless I decide to bet less to induce a raise. The majority of villains are going to call with worse no matter what your sizing so get as much value as possible.
Why do we suspect villain is making moves?
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,254
Not folding, so call or 3-bet?
If a call, I’d estimate a check/evaluate turn ~35-40% of the time given the number of danger cards: clubs/T/5/3. Somewhat in our favor to call flop and lead most turns.
If a re-raise to say $280-300ish, will have committed ~45% ES. Hero can still get away to a 4-bet, but that sounds so ugly. Dependent on your live reads, post-flop skills, and how much both have been drinking.
Flop sizing seems weak in a 3-way with a drawy board (Bet larger for value.) Opponent could put Hero on a bunch of over cards and wants to take it down with a mid-pair type hand.
I’d call and see the turn. B/F safe turns.