Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
It means the OP didn't have a plan about how to play this hand, nor had any idea where they ever stood. If you are 100% sure you're ahead of a villain's range on the river and get raised all in, you snap call. You don't have to make a thread on 2+2 about it.
Maybe it wasn't clear so I will rephrase the implied question. How I ranged the V there was nothing in his range that beats me. Do you range the V similarly to come to the same conclusion that there was nothing in his range to beats me given his line? Clearly I do not 100% know the villain's range.
As for the flop c/r, I see that it is getting a lot of flak, but I will explain my reasoning at least since it is the more interesting spot. The first case is if I am beat. I expect V1 to have the stronger range and at least fold a better hand some of the time to a c/r squeeze. If you have AQ, KQ, or QJ and face a c/r on this flop I would expect the standard advice would be to fold absent any reads that the player is particularly bluffy. Many people at LLSNL won't fold a strong Q on this flop, but this seemed like a good candidate for someone who would. I don't expect V2 to fold any better hands and thus my plan was to check it down once he called, but I did not expect to get called too often by V2 since he has a much wider and weaker range. Finally, I had a decent price on my c/r since it was only a small raise firing 155 into 170 and offering 3:1 on a call, but it was large enough to seem like a significant raise in live play.
The second more interesting case is if I am ahead at the moment. I never expect another bet from V1 into the pot if I am ahead given his tight straightforward style and two callers on the flop. Therefore, I expect the turn to be checked through to the river if I am ahead. I think some posters are underestimating what this does for our equity in the hand if both Vs are able to see the turn and the river. Here are some examples of hands that the villains could have that we are currently beating.
Board: 5
9
Q
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****58.80%**57.64%***1.16%*{ QdTd }
UTG+1**11.29%**11.29%***0.00%*{ AKs, AKo }
UTG+2**29.91%**28.75%***1.16%*{ JTs, JTo }
Board: 5
9
Q
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****51.48%**50.85%***0.64%*{ QdTd }
UTG+1**26.99%**26.36%***0.64%*{ KTs, KTo }
UTG+2**21.52%**21.52%***0.00%*{ A9s }
Board: 5
9
Q
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****57.07%**57.07%***0.00%*{ QdTd }
UTG+1**22.30%**22.30%***0.00%*{ KJs, KJo }
UTG+2**20.64%**20.64%***0.00%*{ 87s }
A small c/r here can fold out a huge equity share split between two villains. This is similar to this heads up situation with A
K
.
Board: T
6
3
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****54.44%**54.44%***0.00%*{ AsKs }
UTG+1**45.56%**45.56%***0.00%*{ JdJh }
You have greater than 50% equity and are therefore ahead, but in any reasonable situation where you jam the flop you want a fold not a call. Generally, the V has enough equity to call due to pot odds and is therefore not making a mistake by calling. I classify this as a (semi)bluff because the villain makes a mistake by folding his hand putting you on QQ+ not by calling with 45% equity.
As for this hand, the key reason I "bluff" raise is that it is 3 handed and not heads up. The two villains have a great deal of combined equity despite not having that much individual equity. The weakest hand that I would probably flat to see the turn and river is KQ as that has the possibility that another bet goes in from a worse hand such as QJ. With QT, I am most likely not getting another bet from Q8. The other option is to call the turn and lead the turn, but that unnecessarily gives a turn card to both villains and it is still difficult to know which cards hit two villains.
If you think a flop raise is bad then I think folding the flop is better than calling the flop. It is going to be tough to reach a winning showdown against 2 villains while being OOP against one of them. Are we really going to be able to c/c on many runouts? We will likely end up having to c/f the turn and the river hoping to get to showdown.