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2/5 Confusing River Raise 2/5 Confusing River Raise

07-03-2015 , 05:44 PM
Hero (Covers ~$1200)-Early 20s Asian male, there has been a fair amount of limping and hero been raising fairly large to 30-35 over multiple limpers. I have been 3b two or three times and folded AJ/AQ expecting a normal tight live 3b range. I'm not sure how live how live Vs interpret raise folding. They seem somewhat confused by it and may be thinking I was trying to steal with garbage and just got caught since they are generally only opening super premiums and therefore will never fold to a 3b. I have also been opening premiums and getting paid off so overall hero has an aggressive winning image.

V1 ($700): Middle aged black male: he tends to open strong hands and bet them, but will fold to any aggression. He will also immediately go into c/f mode and try to get to showdown when overcards hit if he has a pocket pair. He opens slightly wider from LP, but will generally only cbet on the flop and give up.

V2 ($825): 30s Asian male: Tends to limp extremely often and will limp call a fair percentage of the time. Will only very rarely open raise. V tends to play his monsters very fast postflop such as b/3b KJ on a KJx flop. V is somewhat sticky postflop, but will fold to a great deal of aggression with large bets on later streets.

H: QT

Hand:
Preflop:
EP limps, V2 limps, H limps in HJ, V1 raises to 25 OTB, folds to V2 who calls, H calls

The limp is uncharacteristic from hero and a fold might just be better. The table tends to call smaller raises quite liberally with a raise to 20-25 probably getting 3+ callers. If I limped then there was a fair chance I would have position in the hand with V1 playing quite tight/straightforward and would be unlikely to overlimp. I elect to call the raise closing the action because I believe that V1 will be able to be bluffed on scary boards, but it's close. In hindsight, it's probably better to just raise if I'm going to play the hand since I will only be 3b by a tight range and I was calling a raise anyway.

FLOP ($80): Q95
V2 checks, H checks, V1 bets $45, V2 calls, H c/r to $155
Hero decides to turn his hand into a bluff thinking there is a good chance it is not good especially against V1 and I can't call a bet. V1 is likely folding better Qx and scared with overpairs facing a raise. I was thinking I may decide to fire another barrel against V1 to try to bluff KK and AA if the board runs out scary. At the same time, V2 can be quite wide and sticky here peeling one bet on the flop. I choose a small raise size since it is large enough to represent strength in a live game even though it is only a 1/3 pot raise.

V1 folds, V2 calls $155
At this point, I think V2s range includes better Qx, JT, or a sticky pair. I think it will be hard to make him fold better Qx and I have SDV with my merge so I plan to check it down unimproved.

TURN ($435) 2
check/check

I'm not sure of the exact turn card, but it was a low card that put a spade draw on the board. Pretty much a blank

RIVER ($435) T
V2 checks, H bets $240
I bink top two pair and believe that I'm ahead of his entire range now, so I try to value bet targeting Qx that might be sticky. I'm not sure I get a lot of credit checking back the turn and betting the river now.

V2 tanks for 30 seconds and then c/r all in to 645. It is $405 to call and the pot is now $1320. Hero?
2/5 Confusing River Raise Quote
07-03-2015 , 06:06 PM
Call.

I don't see how V2 could have a set here as played. Personally I would prob never check raise this river with a set. Id be losing too much value if it gets checked behind. You are getting >3to1 on a call. If V2 has a straight here just say nice hand and love your table!
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07-03-2015 , 06:38 PM
Kinda like you said I don't think you get a ton of credit w your line so maybe he spaz bluffed here. The only worries really are 99 55 and KJ.

Id say there's way too many bluffs in his range w this weird if a line to fold top 2 getting 3:1.

The flop raise was very strange and I'm not sure I agree w your logic about getting him to fold a better Q. Especially if you turn around and check a blank ott. If it did turn out that he was bluffing the river I would take note of that and adjust your play as if you hadn't binked the T his play and read were actually pretty great.
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07-03-2015 , 06:43 PM
Looks like you got floated by KJs with BDFD on the flop and a gutter

Bet the turn
2/5 Confusing River Raise Quote
07-03-2015 , 08:41 PM
fold flop
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07-04-2015 , 10:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Looks like you got floated by KJs with BDFD on the flop and a gutter

Bet the turn
Interesting so you think I should bet the turn for value against V2? I thought I could bluff V1, but I don't think I can easily bluff V2 off any stronger hand. I might be able to do it with a bet/all in on a scary river, but it won't be very certain.
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07-04-2015 , 11:13 AM
He ether has a set or you have him beat. No way he has KJ / J8 or any thing like that unless he is a total fish.

As played you have to call - but I wouldn't play this the same was a you on flop. Raising the flop is where you made your mistake and bloated this pot for no reason at all.

I think I bet fold turn too. Since you didn't bet turn your hand looks like total air. This is probably why you got check raised and i'd level myself into calling.

The limp pre can be fine if you don't have any maniacs at the table. Raising pre is also good if you can isolate. It doesn't look like the type of table that will fold pre - so limp/calling is fine.
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07-04-2015 , 11:22 AM
Grunch.

Lol, wtf are you doing with the flop c/r?!? Turning QT into a bluff on Q95r? Really bad IMO. Think about the hands you are trying to get these sticky Villains to fold. Why can't you just flat?
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07-04-2015 , 03:15 PM
going into the hand my plan was not to catch a pair. but you can play poker that's fine. My game def needs improvement.
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07-04-2015 , 03:45 PM
Raise pre. It plays well if we get called and we can narrow our opponent's ranges

AP, yeah flop x/r is no bueno. All better continue and all worse fold. I guess you're trying to rep a set and frankly all you can rep is 55. I'm calling you OTF for sure.

Turn check is fine, gross river spot though as a river x/r is almost never a bluff. However given V2 will fast play monsters he's only repping KJ and TT. Since we block TT he's repping s really narrow range.

I call.
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07-04-2015 , 03:56 PM
yeah i agree can raise pre also for more info

edit: and im sure for other reasons that i cant think of at the moment

Last edited by tmacTheorySSAnne; 07-04-2015 at 03:57 PM. Reason: reasons for betting
2/5 Confusing River Raise Quote
07-04-2015 , 04:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fcat
Call.

I don't see how V2 could have a set here as played. Personally I would prob never check raise this river with a set. Id be losing too much value if it gets checked behind. You are getting >3to1 on a call. If V2 has a straight here just say nice hand and love your table!
We limp pre. Then we call a raise. Limp-calling pocket-pairs makes far more sense than limp-calling QTs. Then we bluff for no reason. Then we bet the river because we're ahead 100% of the time. Then we ask people at 2+2 whether we should fold. Does that means anyone else at the table is bad?

I'm guessing that the Hero doesn't have a solid image, which definitely impacts the range of hands that a Villain could have.

The way the Villain could have a set, is that Hero tried desperately to fold out all the hand he was ahead of. But obviously the Villain's range includes both hands we're ahead of and hand we're behind.
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07-04-2015 , 04:30 PM
Thinking that villain will fold to a possible other barrel with AA or KK seems a little optimistic. What turns are you actually planning on doing that as a bluff? If he is calling the flop c/r there arent many turns that villain will fold.

I agree with deathcab though
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07-04-2015 , 04:30 PM
Raise pre.

Please don't "bluff" the flop with TP4K.

Now fold.
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07-04-2015 , 04:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by au4all
We limp pre. Then we call a raise. Limp-calling pocket-pairs makes far more sense than limp-calling QTs. Then we bluff for no reason. Then we bet the river because we're ahead 100% of the time. Then we ask people at 2+2 whether we should fold. Does that means anyone else at the table is bad?
Im not sure what you mean here
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07-04-2015 , 09:24 PM
I don't get the flop check raise. Just lead out or check call. Once you check raise, you are only beating a draw, if so you should bet/fold the turn as well.

As played- I snap fold to the river raise. Rarely do any villains make bluffs on the river, especially knowing that you have such good pot odds to call. He has an oddly played set or binked his gutshot.
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07-04-2015 , 09:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fcat
Im not sure what you mean here
It means the OP didn't have a plan about how to play this hand, nor had any idea where they ever stood. If you are 100% sure you're ahead of a villain's range on the river and get raised all in, you snap call. You don't have to make a thread on 2+2 about it.
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07-05-2015 , 02:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
It means the OP didn't have a plan about how to play this hand, nor had any idea where they ever stood. If you are 100% sure you're ahead of a villain's range on the river and get raised all in, you snap call. You don't have to make a thread on 2+2 about it.
Maybe it wasn't clear so I will rephrase the implied question. How I ranged the V there was nothing in his range that beats me. Do you range the V similarly to come to the same conclusion that there was nothing in his range to beats me given his line? Clearly I do not 100% know the villain's range.

As for the flop c/r, I see that it is getting a lot of flak, but I will explain my reasoning at least since it is the more interesting spot. The first case is if I am beat. I expect V1 to have the stronger range and at least fold a better hand some of the time to a c/r squeeze. If you have AQ, KQ, or QJ and face a c/r on this flop I would expect the standard advice would be to fold absent any reads that the player is particularly bluffy. Many people at LLSNL won't fold a strong Q on this flop, but this seemed like a good candidate for someone who would. I don't expect V2 to fold any better hands and thus my plan was to check it down once he called, but I did not expect to get called too often by V2 since he has a much wider and weaker range. Finally, I had a decent price on my c/r since it was only a small raise firing 155 into 170 and offering 3:1 on a call, but it was large enough to seem like a significant raise in live play.

The second more interesting case is if I am ahead at the moment. I never expect another bet from V1 into the pot if I am ahead given his tight straightforward style and two callers on the flop. Therefore, I expect the turn to be checked through to the river if I am ahead. I think some posters are underestimating what this does for our equity in the hand if both Vs are able to see the turn and the river. Here are some examples of hands that the villains could have that we are currently beating.

Board: 59Q
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****58.80%**57.64%***1.16%*{ QdTd }
UTG+1**11.29%**11.29%***0.00%*{ AKs, AKo }
UTG+2**29.91%**28.75%***1.16%*{ JTs, JTo }

Board: 59Q
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****51.48%**50.85%***0.64%*{ QdTd }
UTG+1**26.99%**26.36%***0.64%*{ KTs, KTo }
UTG+2**21.52%**21.52%***0.00%*{ A9s }

Board: 59Q
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****57.07%**57.07%***0.00%*{ QdTd }
UTG+1**22.30%**22.30%***0.00%*{ KJs, KJo }
UTG+2**20.64%**20.64%***0.00%*{ 87s }

A small c/r here can fold out a huge equity share split between two villains. This is similar to this heads up situation with AK.
Board: T63
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****54.44%**54.44%***0.00%*{ AsKs }
UTG+1**45.56%**45.56%***0.00%*{ JdJh }
You have greater than 50% equity and are therefore ahead, but in any reasonable situation where you jam the flop you want a fold not a call. Generally, the V has enough equity to call due to pot odds and is therefore not making a mistake by calling. I classify this as a (semi)bluff because the villain makes a mistake by folding his hand putting you on QQ+ not by calling with 45% equity.

As for this hand, the key reason I "bluff" raise is that it is 3 handed and not heads up. The two villains have a great deal of combined equity despite not having that much individual equity. The weakest hand that I would probably flat to see the turn and river is KQ as that has the possibility that another bet goes in from a worse hand such as QJ. With QT, I am most likely not getting another bet from Q8. The other option is to call the turn and lead the turn, but that unnecessarily gives a turn card to both villains and it is still difficult to know which cards hit two villains.

If you think a flop raise is bad then I think folding the flop is better than calling the flop. It is going to be tough to reach a winning showdown against 2 villains while being OOP against one of them. Are we really going to be able to c/c on many runouts? We will likely end up having to c/f the turn and the river hoping to get to showdown.
2/5 Confusing River Raise Quote
07-05-2015 , 04:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wincet
As for the flop c/r, I see that it is getting a lot of flak, but I will explain my reasoning at least since it is the more interesting spot. The first case is if I am beat. I expect V1 to have the stronger range and at least fold a better hand some of the time to a c/r squeeze. If you have AQ, KQ, or QJ and face a c/r on this flop I would expect the standard advice would be to fold absent any reads that the player is particularly bluffy. Many people at LLSNL won't fold a strong Q on this flop, but this seemed like a good candidate for someone who would. I don't expect V2 to fold any better hands and thus my plan was to check it down once he called, but I did not expect to get called too often by V2 since he has a much wider and weaker range. Finally, I had a decent price on my c/r since it was only a small raise firing 155 into 170 and offering 3:1 on a call, but it was large enough to seem like a significant raise in live play.
You're a young Asian which means unknowns default to thinking you're FOS.

Points for creativity though.
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07-05-2015 , 11:47 PM
Results if anyone is even interested in the river and not the flop c/r lol
Spoiler:
Hero tanks for a minute and is confused, but calls sticking to the original read and V2 turns over AQ. V2 says wow I had you until the river. V1 is confused at the showdown and says he folded QJ to the raise. Looks like I ran into the top of V2's range that I didn't expect to fold out anyway. I'm guessing that V2 thought that his hand was the nuts given Hero's odd line, but idk. He may just have been pressing buttons just like the general opinion on the flop c/r
2/5 Confusing River Raise Quote
07-05-2015 , 11:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wincet
Results if anyone is even interested in the river and not the flop c/r lol
You folded out the second best hand, who would have paid you off, and got heads-up against the best hand. Do you not see how dreadful, and -EV that is?

The QJ guy is confused about why you went out of your way to cost yourself money and save him money. I have no idea why you did it either.
2/5 Confusing River Raise Quote
07-06-2015 , 10:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by au4all
You folded out the second best hand, who would have paid you off, and got heads-up against the best hand. Do you not see how dreadful, and -EV that is?

The QJ guy is confused about why you went out of your way to cost yourself money and save him money. I have no idea why you did it either.
Lol the second best hand that was still beating me on the flop. My plan was clearly not to c/c to try to hit a 3 outer. If that is the case then I should just fold the flop, and then that leaves this hand as the top of my folding range that I can potentially turn into a bluff. If I had A9 instead of QT and raised it would be similar since I am not likely to get another bet into the pot while ahead. The relative hand strengths of those two hands are similar in this spot.

If V2's range was infact strong instead of wide like I expected then yes I did make a mistake because he was not folding his strong hands, but I didn't expect his range to be as strong as V1. V1 either had a stronger hand than me that he could possibly fold on the flop or he had two broadways with a significant amount of equity. He probably doesn't even have Q8s in his range to be betting worse and doesn't seem like the type to merge with JJ and TT.

Even if I called on the flop to try to suckout, I would probably be facing a bet on the turn. To call that would be at least a similar amount to my c/r-110 into a 330 pot. This way at least I get some FE like I elaborated on in my previous post which is significant even if I was ahead on the flop.
2/5 Confusing River Raise Quote
11-27-2015 , 02:31 AM
So I was reading JohnnyBuzz's post: 2/5 NL: I 3! JJ OOP, Get 4! Big After Small Open
and saw Wincet's insightful post. I didn't remember ever seeing a post of his before, so I looked for posts he made.

This one, IMO, is very labor intensive on OP's part & even if he's wrong in his thinking, I believe it should be debated further. I hope some of the best here feel the same way.
2/5 Confusing River Raise Quote
11-27-2015 , 03:10 AM
Just saying the flop raise is really really bad. Not even to mention the countless game theory problems with it it just doesn't make sense. You are not folding out enough if any better and any worse is just folding. If you can't play poker well enough to just play this normally on the flop then just limp fold pre.

AP if you are turning this into a bluff then you have to barrel turn.

River is a bet for value obviously and then idk. I usually end up calling when nothing makes sense and V reps super thin but i don't love it. I mean what does V have that calls a c/r on the flop and is not c/r river. Whatever it is it was played bad but tbh I think you may be beat here. this is such a weird line as a bluff and this kinda feels like QQ or KJ. If your read on villain is right then maybe that swings more towards call but either way i don't love it. I may make a crying call but hating it. Just really don't like how the hand was played on flop and turn. Don't see much of a logical plan
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11-27-2015 , 11:14 AM
ZuneIt has bumped this thread soo I'll give it another shot even though it was very unpopular.

I think I have provided most of my reasoning and received little directly addressing that so I will just summarize my arguments towards raising the flop. The river spot seems far less interesting in retrospect even though I originally made the thread title about the river.
  • QTs is not strong enough to call here. I am OOP against two Vs with V1 being fairly tight to open OTB. V1 never has worse Qx here and I have strong RIO if V1 has a better hand than me and few outs to improve.
  • Given that I don't want to call with QTs, I can then put it into my bluff range to squeeze V1 who will play straightforward while I expect to be ahead to V2's range much more often.
  • I expect V1 to fairly often fold hands as strong as AQ to my c/r squeeze, while V2 can sometimes still call me with worse hands that don't believe my c/r like A9.
  • Even if I call and I am ahead on the flop, the two other hands on this flop can have a huge amount of equity against me that I want to fold out with a semi-bluff. I would be much less inclined to raise if V2 had folded. Equity calculations in post #18.
  • My plan was to give up unimproved against either V1 or V2 if called OTF since I will have narrowed V1's range to KK+ or maybe AQ+ and against V2 I have already gotten two streets of value against his draws and bluff catchers if I was not already behind a big hand.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter3041
Just saying the flop raise is really really bad. Not even to mention the countless game theory problems with it it just doesn't make sense. You are not folding out enough if any better and any worse is just folding. If you can't play poker well enough to just play this normally on the flop then just limp fold pre.

AP if you are turning this into a bluff then you have to barrel turn.
If I can get V1 to fold out hands as strong as AQ is the flop raise still bad? I think against a straightforward player who bet/folds to aggression, barreling the turn is bad because his range has already been narrowed to hands he will often call the turn with. See post #18 for reasoning on why bluffing Vs when we are "ahead" is still valuable in this hand.

I agree that folding pre to a tight button raise is best.
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