Hero ($700): has been sitting at the table for an hour, playing TAG with a rush of big hands (have showed down with AA KK and AK in the first two orbits)

Villain ($270): Man in his 40s with a long sleeve flannel shirt and baseball cap. First time we have sat together. He seems to be playing nitty, and generally laying his cards face up. Has only gotten aggressive in 2 hands, and the table folded to his aggression both times. Has seen a handful of other flops and c/f each one.

PREFLOP:

Hero is UTG+1 with A K

1 limp, Hero raises to $20, villain calls, rest of table folds, limper folds.

FLOP: Q 8 3 (Pot $47)

Hero bets $30, villain calls.

TURN: K (Pot $107)

Hero ????

Here I have villain's range as QT, QJ, QK, 88, 33. Villain only has about $220 left, so b/c commits us to call shoves while crushed, and is only folding out QT and QJ, which we want value from.

Do we c/c this turn and re-evaluate river, or just give up on the hand?

checking allows a passive player to pot control his Qx by checking back the turn... i don't really see any benefits here to it TBH unless hes more aggressive with TP turned into 2ndp then described.

Well 1 hour of live play is tough to get real solid reads for making lay downs....guys could get card dead ect...35 hands/hour?

I think you can add 99-JJ to his range....even TJ suited peeling one off in position. It's a tough call on the turn. I think you can bet fold the turn, that board is getting scary and he will probably raise a set or KQ. I probably bet $50-55/fold.

what position did villain call from?

B/f $60. You will get called by worse QJ, QT, JJ-TT sometimes, and if you are raised you can safely fold.

Grunch.

I think its a b/f spot. Fire $50 if he raises, seems were up against KQ or set, and can fold. I.don't really know. I'm open to other lines, does he call Q10, QJ?

As described, Villain is almost always checking turn w/o a King or better hand, and will almost always bet KQ or better here. And you can safely rule out any Kx hands, right?

A bet might get called by any broadway Queen, giving us value. If he calls, I'm also betting most rivers unless you think Villain is the type of nit to only call with KQ on the turn.

So...if I'm betting turn and get called, I'm also betting river looking for some thin value. If I check this turn, I call a bet and reevaluate on the river.

But as described, Villain isn't really a TAG...so I bet/fold $55.

Bingo bango bongo. K on the turn will scare poor players and cause a good player to call. Either way bet; and proceed on the river according to your villain.

+1, nailed it.

What rivers would you fold here?

If your cbetting that flop you need to fire this turn. Def a b/f scenerio

You mean if I c/c? that's why I'd rather bet/fold the turn! Check/calling the turn and then reevaluating the river is tougher. then, It's more of a personal read than any one card coming on the river. If he's betting strong, it's going to be tougher to call.

As described, Villain is not going to be betting very many hands on the turn that we beat...hell, based on that alone, I'd much rather bet/fold then be put in that spot by checking.