2/5 game at local casino and the game is CRAZY. In one hand, 3 people limp/called a $50 raise, followed by a $250 shove lmao.

Hero (Covers) SB Been pretty solid, played 2 big hands so far. One I 3bet pre with kings, got flatted from the button and BB. Flop j/9/x, Bet, and 10's jammed into me, i called, turn 10, river Q.
Next hand I raised 25 with AJ, got 5 callers, flop K9, I cbet one caller, turn 9, he donked for 1/4 pot, I called, river 2 he c/calls me $300 bet OTR.

Villain ($1,100) LP Is an amateur, plays very passive, probably bought in for $200-300, never seen before, playing nitty at the table. I've only seen him involved in 2 hands, one he limped with AJ s00ted from the HJ, flopped an ace, and check/called a bluffing manaic all the way to the river OOP. The other hand I saw him play, he called a raise pre, flop KKJ, bet/he called, turn 4, bet/he called, river 5 checks, he bets 50, original raiser makes it $175, and he tanks for like 10 seconds and shoves (~$600), original raiser folds AK face up.

Villain puts a rack on the table and says to the cocktail waitress hes going to leave soon. The rack has been there maybe 1.5/2 orbits.
*I've also NEVER seen V open raise before. He ALWAYS has limp/called or called.

Fish limps, V makes it $20, folds around to hero in the SB with 88, who calls, BB folds, and Fish calls.

Flop (65)
68Q

Hero checks, Fish bets 40, Villain makes it $135, Hero makes it $310, Fish tanks for 15 seconds and folds, Villain tanks for 10 seconds and shoves for $1080 total... Hero wants to die...

I checked because I put Villain on big cards to begin with. Like I've said, amateur player, never seen him open raise, and he made it $20 (which is small compared to the normal $35-50 that gets 3 callers) I'm putting him on JJ+ at this moment. I just feel like he always has an overpair/big pair and is c-betting.

Once the fish leads, and he raises, I'm sure hes got QQ+, but my move looks so strong, that I think even an amateur lays down AA/KK to me in that spot. I can see him having AQ, but like I said, I think he plays it more passively preflop. Just like he did with AJs

I start fishing for information asking him if he has a set of queens, he replies, "Do you have a set?" and I reply, "No, I have Kings" and he says, "Oh wow"
Then I ask him again, and he responds with my question, asking me if I have a set of queens.

There is a good chance I call here. If he has QQ oh well I guess but if we think he does this with overpairs then AA/KK and AKs/AQs make up over 24 combos vs only 3 for QQ. He could have bottom set I suppose as well.

I think nits like V will go broke with overpairs in spots like these. I'm not so sure amateurs will fold AA/KK on flops, maybe on turns on bad boards like four to a straight or something.
He's won the few hands he's been involved in including one where he shoved with a monster. If he has KK/AA here, he must feel like he's having a great session and given how his previous hands played out, I think even in the face of your perceived strength/raise, he'd still shove here with those overpairs (winner's tilt and past HH recall).
You've never seen him before, he's prolly just playing for a bit of fun and gamble, and doesn't mind going broke with KK/AA especially toward the end of the session. Also, nits can be really random sometimes, he might show up here with a hand totally unexpected and inconsistent with the line that he's taking. Anyway, I'd prolly call this off. Also the way the table has been playing, I think V will also be inclined to just stick it in with KK/AA


Yeah, not sure what to make of this but my gut tells me he doesn't have a set of queens.
If he has a set of sixes, he plays the exact same way IMO

I don't think an amateur lays down AA or KK because your line looks strong. He probably isn't thinking about your hand and if he is, he probably thinks you have a flush draw. While he could have QQ, I think AA or KK would behave like this. I'm calling and if he has top set, good for him.

I don't understand the point of the 3bet if you think villain folds everything but the nuts. At a minimum, it should be much smaller.

As played, I think you can fold. A passive amateur is just not putting in 4-5 of his buy-ins without the nuts after 10 seconds of thought.

I've seen over bets with AA/KK lots of times. It is usually two modes of thought: 1. Go away 2. Jackpot; I have top pair.

Call in this spot. This is one of those times you have to get it in with what will usually be the best hand.

Based upon the KKJ flop, there seems to be a reasonable chance he just calls the $310 with a set of queens. Also, at least decent chance if not excellent chance he plays AA as played. Are we sure he'd fold KK to the 3bet? Of course, also some slight chance of 66, AsKs, AsQs (the rack on the table could be a change in profile, and this is his first hand worth doing something about it). Obviously pot odds and combos are favorable. If you worked out a strong enough tell from the verbal sparring, that's fine, but I would definitely call in game.

If a guy NEVER raises, and he suddenly ISO raises from EP, then that alone would cause me to weigh him more toward KK+ rather than QQ. I've known certain nits who simply never raise from EP without KK+ (or even just AA), and this guy might qualify for that club based on his description.

Also, don't you think he would take a little longer/react surprised when he has top set and somebody x/4b against him?

I find his actions more consistent with red aces. He's waited for the hand all day and simply decided a) he's not folding and b) he's not going to let you hit the flush against him. That's the bulk of his thought process. "I barely play any hands, so I can't let these kids semi-bluff me when I get AA."

It's possible he shows you QQQ here, sure, but most of the time I think you're seeing AA.

If you flip this analysis around a bit. Think about it this way: how many times have you heard about the perils of over bets like these? The problem with them is that you are going to fold out hands that you beat and only have hands that best you stick around. In this case , that'd be you my friend. Call. If you run into an overset, than that is poker.

So you're sure he has QQ+ and you're sure he's going to fold AA/KK... Then why 3bet the flop?

Anyway, I would (sort of) happily call here, mainly because of the spade draw that's out there. I'm just not buying he can only have QQ here. Maybe if you had played with him many times before, it could be a different story. But this guy is basically an unknown, right?

GII

You 3bet flop to fold out AA? Interesting move.

Snap call

lol

If you think he's capable of overplaying KK/AA, this is a snap call. Four times as many combos we beat versus those that beat us. Factor in any big draws and this is a call.

Edit: Haven't even factored in the 3 sets of 6's we also beat.

You describe the table as crazy, you say that V basically never opens for a raise pre, and now you think his range is the only hand you are not crushing?

Snap call, high 5 the dealer, kiss the waitress, slam your cards down and scream at the top of your lungs "that's how you do it!".

If he basically never raises pre, he basically never has QQ, ducy?

Or, kiss the dealer and high 5 the waitress. In all things poker, it depends.

I think there are key moments to live poker, where you need to realize when certain people have inelastic hands. And in those moments, stack/bet/pot size means nothing.

This was likely one of those situations. And it's usually the case with someone that isn't used to playing deep, especially vs. someone they perceive as good. They know you could be FOS, and can't get that one bluff you made once out of their head.

We've all seen guys go on heaters, win 3-4 buyins, then bust out in 30mins, because they can't fold certain hands ever.

This is very well put. I think those of us who spend so much time in 100BB games, myself included, can really benefit from this insight.

Never folding here vs this guy

Snap call.

Not folding,calling Phil Helmuth style.
If you're only calling to flop top set and are worried about coolers/variance, maybe folding pre OOP is better??!

What? It seems as if V's open raising range is literally QQ+. It's entirely possible that in the period of time H has been sitting with V, V hasn't gotten QQ+, hence he's never open raised.

V's description makes even Action Dan look like a maniac. We saw him go nuts 1 hand, where he probably had KJ or JJ (from my ranging).

V's range here is literally QQ imo (we saw him x/c TPGK 3 streets, do we think he is going to just go nuts here and 4! 200+BB with an overpair?). Gross spot, fold and say I guess a Q is no good.

Also the table talk (when you said you had KK and he said "Wow" it's because he thinks he outflopped you).

gotta agree. passive amateurs never reshove here with AA. Sadly, it almost has to be QQ