V1 (UTG straddle): early 20s Asian, aggressive and has shown many bluffs (covers)
V2 (CO): MAWG, passive fish ($400)
Hero (BTN): mid 20s Asian, nitty image ($600)

One limper to hero who makes it $40 with AK. Both villains call.

Flop: 988 ($122)

Checked to hero who bets $60. Both call.

Turn: 2 ($302)

Checked around.

River: 3 ($302)

V1 bets $200. V2 folds. Hero???

My reasoning for wanting to call is that it's hard to make a pair on this kind of board. And I beat all air obviously. Can easily have busted draws with overs like JT, QJ, QT, maybe even 76s if he decided to flat that pre instead of 3 betting. On the other hand is he really gonna bluff with a fish in the pot?

This is a really a math problem. Does he bluff with worse than AK 29% of the time. If yes, then call. If not, then fold. Keep in mind that if he'll float with 44-77 on the flop, his bluff on the river could still beat you.

Seems like the best unpaired hand to call with since we don't block any of his straight draws. Only better hand would be AK to not block any BDFD's.

I say NH if you called.

I call from time to time here but its about reads.

River stab for this sizing after checking the turn feels like a bluff.

Kinda of want to call.

Folding - you're protected by v2

Really good spot to just check flop and give up. Cbet pretty spew.

Ap calling

I think you take this line often enough IP with value that you can easily let this hand go on the river. You'll have a bunch of combos that can call, a few raises, and folds with A highs that never would have been able to withstand a turn barrel (had you checked back flop) anyway, so why bluff catch?
They also can have value more often specifically because of the line you took having narrowed them otf/giving them more perceived opportunity to ck-r value on turns (or rivers). Because of all of this, AP fold river.

Not sure if the dynamic exists in OPs game, but it isn't uncommon amongst good players to use this as a level against one another. Especially when guy like V2 are fold heavy>call heavy on this kind of board.

Overrepping a range can be quite profitable when the board favors you and equally tough to deal with as an opponent, especially in pseudo-protected pots. There is often "poker" being played at 2-5.

I think it's a call but it depends on the following:Would he ever flat TT-QQ preflop given your image and your 8x sizing? If so this a fold. If he's always 3 betting those hands, then that's a lot less value that he can have.

While V2 is somewhat uncapped, your range is capped to A9s and would you even open that hand to 40 and then check the turn? Vs a bad player this is an easy fold but bs a thinking player who doesn't expect your turn chrckback range to be strong he probably puts you on exactly what you have. And if he puts you on exactly what you have, he would probably opt for a smaller sizing.

It's a straddled pot.

"Has shown many bluffs" and "Asian", + blocking zero draws this is a call. But flop bet is just bad itself, but OP is in this river spot. I'm assuming he bets AJ/AQ/A10, which are much easier folds since we block a ton of straight draws. I'm assuming OP is also betting A2s-A7s at a decent frequency, those can be folded as well since who knows he can be turning AJ/AQ into a bluff on this river, also having the 7/6 for A7s/A6s block some more straight draws. Yeah people do dumb stuff like that & merge their range, so AK is definitely a lot better to call here with than say A2s-A5s although they all don't block any draws.

AK is like the nut no pair here. Vs a gambly asian guy who bluffs a lot and likes to show, pretty trivial call imo here with AK.

Other than 33, we can only continue on this river with 9x. Which is probably fine against most players because I don't expect to get exploited, but vs an aggro/gambly asian, I think AK here calling should be slightly +EV.

As played, call.

I don't like the cbet with an aggro Asian in the hand.

Your hand is so face up I fold against any decent player. In fact he could be value betting you with a weak pair you hand looks so much like overcards.

I think an 8 plays this the same way, and he could VERY easily be bluffing with better. Sure sometimes you look like a genius when you call and are right, but I don't think this on average is a good call.

Nobody bets $200 into $300 trying to value bet your AK. Seems really rare that someone would bet a hand better than AK as a bluff too.

I'm not disagreeing, but a bit skeptical. What if he's actually good at poker and merging/thin value betting with pairs? (I suppose it would also help if I knew what 'shown many bluffs' really meant...what they were...and whether or not he won some of those hands.)

I also have a bit of a problem with the 'aggro asian' having more value here than usual by way of the straddle+not electing to actually be aggro on 889 against a fish and a nit. If he's good aggro, then he has to get paid in spots like this to pay off his strategy and judging from the forum responses he likely might get paid a lot. To me, his line just does not look like a bluff frequently enough that I want to call down to AK...I have so many better hands that raise the btn/over a fish CO limp. Maybe if from EP it's a better call.

He's not merging. He lost all those hands. Some were pretty spewy he tried to bluff a whale.

So he's just an idiot - well then I guess hero it, but he still might think he needs to be bluffing here and some hands are better than AK.

How did he play draws and big value hands in previous hands? I feel like bad lags tend to semi bluff draws while slowplaying their big hands on early streets as their default.

I am not saying it is an every time thing, but I have made this specific value bet on these types of boards, action and runouts numerous times profitably.

Specifically when villain knows
A) Hero can and probably likes to hero call
B) Heros hands are A broadway so so often with this action

It is actually a super great spot to bet things any low pair, etc... I don't know that hero can ever raise this river to a bet which also makes it a good bet spot.

Different villains, different boards, runouts etc, maybe not.

As played id fold. Id rather check back flop and look to call on most turns.

Yes, hero should probably not call in this spot vs you. This is a very opponent specific hand and can be wildly incorrect against certain people and good vs others.

Specific factors aside, if there's any hand to choose to hero with, it's AK.

Agree

As played it's close.

Agree with flop check. He can bet tons of pairs here for thin value, which are definitely in his range. Feel the need the state again that villain straddled.

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I might bet this flop into some players but against aggressive gambler type asian, I just check back this flop. As played, don't know enough about V with info given to make a call. If he's a thinking player, could easily have a small pair and trying to make you call with A high. If he's a maniacal type player could have air. It's a coin flip.