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2/5: Bottom set gets butchered. 2/5: Bottom set gets butchered.

03-12-2012 , 05:25 AM
Villain: Older gentleman in his late 50s. Short haired, clean cut man in jeans and a hoodless sweatshirt, looks like a typical college basketball coach. I picked up from his table talk that he's been playing NLHE since before the 2003 boom. He plays a tight, straightforward range, and the vast majority of his bets are for value, but he can make some aggressive bluffs. A couple times before this session that I've played with him, I saw him 3bet a $25 open to $100 with AKs, then shove for $400 on a J-high rainbow flop with $210 in the pot. Views hero as a tight player who only plays pairs and broadways.

Hero has $900, villain covers, all other limpers have between 40-80bb

PREFLOP: Hero is dealt (7d 7c) in the BB. Villain is in CO, posted his blinds this hand after missing them 2 hands ago.

2 limpers in EP, villain checks, BTN limps, SB folds, Hero checks.

Checking preflop was probably a mistake, but there was a lot of limp/calling going on at this table, and I didn't want to play a bloated multiway pot oop against smaller stacks.

FLOP: (7 9 T) Pot: $22 after rake

Hero bets $15, 2 folds, villain raises to $85, BTN folds, hero calls.

And this is where the preflop check begins to bite me in the butt. During the hand, I got a bit rattled by the raise, and had no information about his hand strength under the circumstances. I felt like his range for raising this flop was made up of two pair hands, pair+OESD, FD+overcard hands, J8, and 68. While I crush this range right now, I decided that calling was the best option. Villain is competent enough to know I'm never 3-betting the flop without a strong made hand, so I felt like a 3bet would make him fold a ton of the hands I beat and only get called by flopped straights and maybe 2 pair hands.

TURN: (K) Pot: $192

Hero checks, villain bets $150....

can Hero continue this hand from here?

Hitting these kind of flops on these kinds of boards, while sitting deep stacked, is where a lot of the money in this game is won and lost. I'd love my thought process to be dissected and reamed for the sake of not misplaying big pots in the future.
2/5: Bottom set gets butchered. Quote
03-12-2012 , 06:31 AM
I think flop and PF are actually not horrible. If you're going to b/3b are you really stacking $900 in a limped pot here? Apparently he's not horrible, so he's not getting in T9 or T7 which would be horrid.

You could probably 3b to like $225 and then if shoved you'd be looking at about $675 to win ~500. Would villain really 4b shove the NFD for $900? I don't think so. The problem you run into is what does villain do with like 99 in that case? Problem is if you raise any more than that it gets really hard to fold. If you assign him ONLY sets or straights here you're looking at 32% equity, and he might raise TT or 99 preflop.

Given that turn card I think you have to fold unless you have some read that he can't fold straights or flushes on the river if you pair up. If he's good enough to turn T9 or something into a bluff here then I guess he just wins.

Then again I'm probably wrong. But automatically 3b/fistpump shoving 77 on this board in a limped pot is probably bad also.

IMO this is also different from the AK hand because that was a raised pot, and he overshoved a dry board which actually is a pretty unnecessary play. He probably wins that hand betting $120 and risking less money. That doesn't tell me he's going to run a multistreet bluff on us and rep diamonds when he doesn't have them (and we easily could).

Last edited by PokerIsFrustrating; 03-12-2012 at 06:37 AM.
2/5: Bottom set gets butchered. Quote
02-03-2014 , 05:03 PM
You only need 3.5:1 to call turn with 10 outs so I would definitely call turn as played with those stacks. Also your FD may be good as well. Looks like he has flush or straight
2/5: Bottom set gets butchered. Quote
02-03-2014 , 05:09 PM
Raising preflop would be a mistake: not sure how you can even consider it. On a flop this wet there is just no way I'm flatting Villain's flop raise. I'm raising, and raising big! As played, I would still call the turn bet and probably check fold the river on an unpaired board.
2/5: Bottom set gets butchered. Quote
02-03-2014 , 06:35 PM
I think I raise flop for value. It might be a leak. I could probably cringe fold to a 4 bet jam here pretty much just giving him credit for a flopped straight at that point.
If he folds two pairs to 3 bet here all that means to me is that I have a license to steal w draws in this spot in later hands.
Call turn and evaluate probably folding to bet unimproved on river. I think a large % of his hand range is weird straights (no charge pf for 86) and two pair here, lots of which you still have flush draws and certainly board pairs against, when you are behind

Last edited by sungar78; 02-03-2014 at 07:03 PM.
2/5: Bottom set gets butchered. Quote
02-03-2014 , 07:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by slimshady1999
You only need 3.5:1 to call turn with 10 outs so I would definitely call turn as played with those stacks. Also your FD may be good as well. Looks like he has flush or straight

If he has the flush, we have 10 outs, and a 22.7% chance of winning.
we need to receive around 3.5:1 to call. We are receiving 2.28:1. If we are literally only going to call for the board to pair and win no more money, we are not receiving enough odds to call properly. That being said, we very well may get more of his stack if the board pairs. We'll have put $235 into the pot with $665 left. We need to win at least $183 more dollars to make the call profitable. As long as you are pretty sure he'll call that amount if we hit, it may be a profitable call.

Of course, in this case we are calling because we know we are drawing. If he has a hand like Ad8s, then we are calling to hit the boat and he will probably shutdown if we hit and bet, but will c-bet the river and win if we check/fold because we miss....

Also, If you are thinking he may be doing this with two pair hand, then you very well may be drawing to lose your whole stack, and nothing more. Because he will likely either give up and check a blank river with two pair, or bet as a bluff, and he is definitely getting stacks in if he hits a boat.

I think the most important thing to consider here, is that he either wanted to play a big pot on the flop, or he wanted to you fold with outs most likely if he wanted you to fold. IF that was the case, he most likely had a FD and completed on the turn.

I pretty much agree with "PokerIsFrustrating"... I don't really have a lot to add...
2/5: Bottom set gets butchered. Quote

      
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