Villain in the SB ($400) has been playing tight preflop and fit or fold post.

Villain in the BB ($260) is new to the table and has seen at least 50% of the flops so far.

Hero ($600) has been playing TAG but has a loose image due to a couple of squeezes and 3bets.

Preflop:
Hero straddles for 10, folds around the table, SB calls, BB calls, hero has 33 and checks.

Flop ($30): K73
SB checks, BB checks, hero checks.

Turn ($30): 6
SB checks, BB checks, hero bets $25, SB calls, BB calls.

River ($105): 10
SB checks, BB checks, hero bets $55, SB folds, BB raises to $200, hero ?


Should I ever check this river back? Is bet/fold awful?

bet the flop

never check back this river. in fact, lead it for 75-80

river is kinda close i guess? i mean, would bb check a K twice?

this really smells like 98. but we do beat KT..

It's 145 for us to call, pot is 105 + (55x2) + 145 = 360 / 145 = 28.71% to breakeven..

Board: Kc 7s 3h 6s Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.000% 64.00% 00.00% 48 0.00 { KTs, 98s, KTo, 98o }
Hand 1: 36.000% 36.00% 00.00% 27 0.00 { 33 }

It's probably close either way because most people with a K would bet the flop and/or turn, so that takes away some probability of KT.

Also you can make a case for raising pre to get SB out to isolate BB and take it down with a cbet on the flop.

*grunch*
Checking flop is awful. Stop slow playing yourself out of value. This is a hand to get stacks in, and you need to start now. Esp. with loose image, bet of $20 will get called by everything but air.

AP, turn is fine.

AP, bet more on river. About $70 would be good.

AP, shove. Only hand you're worried about is 89. KT is much more likely and will probably call.

aren't we also worried about 45 because of the misplayed flop?

I definitely feel like KT leads out somewhere in this hand, esp. on river for value, which leads me to believe 45 and 89 are more likely.

This can only be 98ss. Trivial fold. (j/k)

I mean, it just comes down to whether he does this with KT or not. Livegrinder's range was a little generous, sometimes KT just calls, while 98 and 54 always raise, so not all the KT combos are in there. Also, because he had such a good preflop price, we can assume that he has both 98o and 54o in his range, not just the suited ones. It's close. Can he have a random bluff in his range? Your line looks a little funny... I dunno. In practice I am never folding this. On the coach thinking about it I could talk myself into it, but I still think it's ok to call.

Oh, and bet $15 on the flop. You want to start building a pot against hands that would check behind to pot control. Their calling range >> their betting range given the preflop action.

Whatever you do, do not do that. Garick - why does it make sense to you that KT will call a b/3b on the river 100% of the time? We know that 98 and 54 will, right? For our bets to be for value, we must be ahead of villain's calling range 50%+ of the time. Here we are not so we can't raise for value and have no need to raise to bluff. Nobody folds bottom straight here.

Because Villain only has $30 bucks behind

not betting the flop with a loose image on your straddle is ******ed....Does villain have a history of slow playing? How loose is your image? Villain has to know you will bet often to chk the nuts on the river. I might have to click the call button on this one. You rep middle pair with your chitty betting and if I'm sitting on ~40 bb's I might shove here....

Bet the flop.

On the river, given your read of villain as a tight preflop player in BB who plays fit or fold post flop, you can fold bottom set on the river to a big check/raise. I can't see that particular type of player check/raising you, the BB who could easily have a set, straight, or two pair yourself, without at least a set, and more likely a straight - making your bottom set no good. Checking behind would have been terrible, however, since many hands worse than bottom set will call a decent river bet when you bet the river.

If you were playing many other types of live players, you could call and expect KT or other 2-pair hand often enough to call the c/r.

No, the SB villain folded on the river-you have your villains mixed up. BB Villain has seen 50% of flops.

Because V has seen 50% of flops and has only a few bucks left after his c/r. V should obv have shoved himself. There's no FE in shoving, but there should be a bit more value to be had.

I am a bit more convinced that there's more 89 in his range than I had first assumed, and maybe even some 45, if he is really awful, given our bad flop check. So maybe it's best to just call and reduce the variance a bit. I still think KT dominates his range, though.

grunch

oh my lord bro, you are never folding here!! this is such a snap call against this guy its not even funny. Your hand is SEVERELY under repped and you will be good here a big percentage of the time. That being said, your mistake was checking behind on the flop. Why did you do this? You flopped a monster vs two opponents and need to start building a pot. your plan on the flop should have been a bet/bet/bet line here. Now obviously your avg villain is never c/r bluffing the river but your hand is so under repped that he could easily be doing this with 2 pair for value thinking he has the best hand.

Yeah I bet the flop here and am not folding. Vs a drowler playing 50% of hands (though this is sometimes me; bear in mind he might be ok but have bored I just got here syndrome!) folding is absurd. Presumably if u lose u can just reload as it isn't exactly a monster pot.

so you would also snap call this river if we had KT?

I feel as if he has any two pair combo then he is throwing in a raise on the turn with the flush draw out there and the weak lines taken by the SB and I

Underplaying bottom set on the flop is a leak for a lot of people (me included). You just have to build the pot on the flop. 98ss is not floating that flop for $25. It sets you up to make the turn draw very expensive for Villians who are crazy enough to do so though.

It's possible he's way overvaluing AKss or some funny hand like that.

AP, I think you make the crying call and see 98, 77, 54, or you win.

lol look at preflop,flop, turn action. he doesn't have kt. shove river is lolbad(barely and money behind in this hand but i assume you would still shove with 80ish-200 more behind).

You assume incorrectly. See post #11. I still think a LOT of l/p LLNL players will be MUBSY here with KT till they hit their river miracle to beat better 10s and then raise by reflex. I see it all the time.

Other posts have convinced me that 89 is a more significant part of his range than I first gave it credit for. Yet another reason to bet flop, imo.

GRUNCH
Bet the flop maybe 1/2 pot or little smaller, I would make some sort of bet to start building the pot. Don't waste a street of value and if they didn't have anything that they can't call here u weren't going to make anything on this dry board. As far as river is concerned its an auto call.