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$2/5 bluff raise turn

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11-01-2015 , 10:58 PM

#26

kookiemonster

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 1,652

Quote:

Originally Posted by Willikizz

Overcards and hitting the Q (Q8, Q4 maybe AQ) do you think they call for their card then fold coz I don't.

Flopped two pairs may have shown themselves earlier but will probably not fold to you alone.

Sets good luck.

10-10, J-J maybe.

I don´t actually disagree with the above except in relevance to V3. I´ve played 50+hrs with him. He doesn´t have a set and he´s not calling with one pair. Let´s just say *maybe he folds two pair.

V1 doesn´t have many queens in his range. TT,JJ are going straight into the muck. Is he really checking the turn with a set?

V2 is super wide.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Willikizz

Draws and 8's and smaller pairs your bluffing with the best hand.

From draws, I'm getting value/giving them an excuse to fold their significant equity. I have position so I don't have to worry about checking the river and getting bluffed.

A 1/2Pot raise here only needs to take the pot down/win at showdown >33%. Is that not clearly the case here (therefore making raising better than folding)?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Willikizz

I personally think its a case of frustration setting in and because you thought you was good when you bet on the flop you are trying to justify how the hand played out (folding best, bluffing fail or defending criticism). It must be getting late if the tables are breaking so perhaps you should also call it a night.

Quote

11-01-2015 , 11:00 PM

#27

kookiemonster

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 1,652

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fantastic Mr. Fox

Was this at Caesars?

Not Vegas.

Quote

11-01-2015 , 11:05 PM

#28

patchohare

The Situation

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,966

I like the flop raise and if, as you say, can get two pair to fold then go ahead and rip the tun like you're thinking about.

I don't think calling down to get to showdown results in wining the pot really ever. I think the "same bet" $80 is weak though for sure, I guess my question is if you're confident you can fold out better no problem here, what's the concern? Go ahead and do it. sizing wise I think you can go as low as $300.

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11-02-2015 , 06:14 PM

#29

kookiemonster

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 1,652

Quote:

Originally Posted by Willyoman

Wow man, I love your creativity. But I don't dig the hand.

I gotta say, when I see this

I'm thinking there's a non-0% possibility we have the worst hand 4-way. I think it's unlikely we actually have the worst hand and expect someone does have 8x... but wow. I am expecting we have the best hand 0% of the time.

I guess you reached that conclusion hence thinking about bluffing.

But this isn't a good spot to bluff.

After the turn checks to V3 and he bets, we're still in the hand with 3 other villains. I think bluffing is a pretty big mistake. I think we never have the best hand and we can't rely on getting folds. If we call, we're just wasting money imo.

I think it's just a sigh fold now.

I would not have raised the flop. I think that's a pretty big mistake. It's a very marginal "value /protection raise" and wow are you building an enormous pot. You're also completely undermining your positional advantage. You get to play multi-way in the best position... but that becomes far less powerful when you make the pot so big. I know you didn't ever expect to get so many callers and build such a large pot... but you did... and raising is very predictable way to build a large pot. Even if you got 1 caller, say V1 especially, you could well be behind an overpair that is just never folding, and I think trying to rep a set when you have 99 to get someone to fold an overpair is somewhere between totally creative and spew... personal opinion is it's quite weighted to spew.

So just call flop. No, you don't love to see an ace turn. And sometimes it's worth raising a small flop lead... but 20 into this pot isn't actually THAT small / weak ... especially 4-way... and putting a raise in after a bet + 2 more callers is especially a mistake imo.

Really great points here. I appreciate the constructive analysis. The flop raise was bad. I'm spewy postflop with medium pp's.

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