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2/5 - Bet or check river 2/5 - Bet or check river

06-09-2017 , 04:29 PM
I find certain villain types will bet flop near 100% of the time if I raise pre and check to them. So I've been working more on exploiting this (sometimes checking my entire range, then bluff raising some hands with equity, calling hands that aren't quite strong enough for a value x/r, and folding others; I'll cbet more if I think it's a villain that just wants to check behind or fold when they whiff).. Which yields this hand:

Hero's image is on the lag side. I open a ton pre and am pretty wide, but have controlled aggression post.

Villain is somewhat loose pre, maybe more so against me because of my wide range, but he is thinking - especially when a lot of money goes into the pot.


Hero (BB) raises button straddle to $35 with KcQs. Villain calls LJ. Folds around.

Flop ($80): Qh9h4s
Hero checks. Villain bets $50. Hero calls.

Turn ($180): 5c
Hero bets $100. Villain looks at his cards again, then calls. (I think I should've probably went slightly bigger here)

River ($380): Qc

Check or bet? If I bet, how much?
2/5 - Bet or check river Quote
06-09-2017 , 04:34 PM
Depends on villain but I'm checking after taking this line and it depends on stack sizes but I'm usually stuffing if he bets.

Fold pre.
2/5 - Bet or check river Quote
06-09-2017 , 04:43 PM
I'm betting, but I can't decide whether to make it a value bet (~$150) or a big bet to make it look like a bluff.

What are stacks?

I highly doubt he's betting if you check.

I am not raising this pre when I'll be OOP on later streets and with my image.
2/5 - Bet or check river Quote
06-09-2017 , 04:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
I'm usually stuffing if he bets.
I think villain started with about $1300 and hero covers. Too much to stuff.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
Fold pre.
I pretty much refuse to ever open fold KQo. Maybe if I hop into a 5/10+ game, haven't played much with anyone, and get the feeling that several of them are good.
2/5 - Bet or check river Quote
06-09-2017 , 04:49 PM
Effective stack sizes? Half pot OTT on a wet board. From your read, villain is a loose preflop. He could be riding on semi Bluff with some draws such OE with FD or TP (jkc) with backdoor to straight (QJ). I think villain would bet harder OTT if he has 55, 44, QT even AQ, since hero is playing passively to exploit this type of player in this situayion.AP, OTR I would near PSB to Max value qj hand or induce bluff catcher as hero could be attempt to steal pot on miss draws.

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2/5 - Bet or check river Quote
06-09-2017 , 04:49 PM
There is definitely a merit for both options. I think x/c or x/r is probably the better choice. But when I do bet here I lean towards a little on the smaller side. $130-175. You just put yourself in a weird situation if you re-raised there cause then your hand turns into a bluff catcher

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2/5 - Bet or check river Quote
06-09-2017 , 04:50 PM
Stack sizes... I think villain started with about $1300 and hero covers.
2/5 - Bet or check river Quote
06-09-2017 , 04:53 PM
You say this guy is a thinking player, but have you seen him stab at the river with busted draws, second pair, etc., or does he just check behind?

Would he ever bluff/raise you on the river?

I just think (I seriously hope) we have the best hand and checking could lose too much value.
2/5 - Bet or check river Quote
06-09-2017 , 04:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
You say this guy is a thinking player, but have you seen him stab at the river with busted draws, second pair, etc., or does he just check behind?

Would he ever bluff/raise you on the river?

I just think (I seriously hope) we have the best hand and checking could lose too much value.
I'm trying to figure out what my hand looks like in a spot like this (i.e., after raise pre, x/c flop, lead brick turn)... Like do we think it's a good spot to bluff if we're in villain's shoes with a busted draw, and hero checks river?
2/5 - Bet or check river Quote
06-09-2017 , 05:10 PM
Ignoring the rest of the potential questions on the strategy to get to this point.

I like a check here. Villain should have a lot of hands that can't call a bet, and very few weak value hands that will check back the river.

Try to get a bluff out of the missed draws. Worse queens should also pay you value.

Just about anything that checks back would not have paid off a bet anyway.
2/5 - Bet or check river Quote
06-09-2017 , 05:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketzeroes
I'm trying to figure out what my hand looks like in a spot like this (i.e., after raise pre, x/c flop, lead brick turn)... Like do we think it's a good spot to bluff if we're in villain's shoes with a busted draw, and hero checks river?
With the stacks this deep, it looks exactly like TPGK. If you had a set, you'd be raising, not calling on the flop to start getting stacks in. If you had bet smaller, it could have been a blocking bet for a FD.

You're playing LAG, so raising KQo is fine pf. One thing I have learned is to stop doing a stop and go between the flop and turn. You just fold out worse hands and let better hands continue. As for the river, nothing changed other than you can now beat KK and AA. I'm torn between checking because only a weaker case Q can call that we beat but I really don't want to show my hand. I guess make a 1/2 PSB on the river and fold to the raise against this villain. If he's good enough to bluff raise the river, he's good enough to know most players can't lay down trips at this level.
2/5 - Bet or check river Quote
06-09-2017 , 06:48 PM
If you're taking this line, check turn and river.

AP bet huge

If you routinely took this line against me w KQ, I'd be convinced you thought I was a fish and would adjust awfully quickly.
2/5 - Bet or check river Quote
06-09-2017 , 07:44 PM
Too much that Villain could just check back here. I'd bet $150.
2/5 - Bet or check river Quote
06-09-2017 , 08:28 PM
Villain probably doesn't have much that can call you if you bet. Only hands he calls with are weaker Q's (which will bet themselves) and maybe a 9 if he isn't very good or your image is trash.

I think anything that will call you most likely bets this river except a 9. Maybe he turns his hand into a bluff if you bet and he check raises but i've rarely seen any one at the 2/5 level do that especially on this kind of a board.
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06-09-2017 , 08:51 PM
$325; let's try and induce a hero call from 9x.
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06-10-2017 , 03:50 AM
Does villain seem like the type to bet with missed draws. If so check. If not then bet.
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06-11-2017 , 12:43 AM
i like checking here because you give your opponent a chance to turn missed straight/flush draws into a bluff, and also there aren't to many hands that can easily call your river bet since you block trip Qs.And since you dont have any hearts in your hand it does make it a little more likely your opponent has missed hearts.
2/5 - Bet or check river Quote
06-11-2017 , 05:10 AM
I ended up checking. Villain quickly checked back with TT which definitely sucked because I think he might have called another bet. Hard to say how the hand might have played if he had a draw, but I'm thinking it's probably usually best to just bet and hope for a call.
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