Hero's probably playing a bit too aggro, as this hand might show...
Villain (HJ) is mid 20s or 30s white guy, getting a massage.

Hero MP raises 89 to $20. Three callers after and one caller in the blinds.

Flop ($100): A72

Hero bets $65, planning to barrel into my BD equity. MP calls, villain calls. Others fold.

Turn ($295): 3
Hero bets $165. Fold. Villain calls.

River ($625): A (giving hero flush)
Hero bets $315. Villain doesn't take long before announcing all-in - $420 more to hero.

There's $1675 in the pot, so I'm getting close to 4 to 1 on a call... But I think this is pretty much never a bluff, so i'm hoping to see something like AK or 45 or 2s5s...

How often am I good here?

What can you possibly beat here that villain will play this way? I would expect most sets to reraise the turn, but they still make up a big part of his range. The only thing we could realistically hope for would be a busted club draw or maybe AK/AQ if he is bad enough. I call here and hope to see a bluff, but it's really close either way.

Regardless, you need to know your plan on the river before you make the initial bet.

Trips aren't bluffing and if you have an aggro image, then your range could be pretty weak here. I'd insta-call. I think we're certainly good over 20% of the time. In fact, if I run this range for V:77, 33-22, A2s+, A2o+, we're crushing with 71.6% equity.

If were spending time cultivating a maniacal image, we should do so with the expectation of getting "hero" plays from our opponents. The question I'd be asking myself in this hand, is how likely is V to fold to a double barrel? If it's low, I think we can go with a smaller blocking-bet sizing when we pick up equity. Also, if it's 5-way, I'd lean to not repping the A OTF, especially if our image is ****e.

Id bet 50 otf cause all aces are calling and then hammer turn like 85% of pot to put pressure on his weak pairs. Any idea what his range is preflop? Would he not raise 2pair / sets otf? His most likely hand seems to be A3 but id probly call. Only need 20%

anyone like x/shoving the river?

AP pretty sure I click call - I would expect villain to have raised on either the flop or turn with his aces up/set combos - any history with him raising/not-raising the flop with 2p+?

I was just thinking over this, I actually think that's what I did. My flop sizing was likely less than half pot - like 40 or 45. I distinctly remember thinking that villain might have 45 in his range for turned straight, and I wouldn't think that's so likely with 65 flop bet... and I also remember my turn bet was relatively large compared to pot and villain's turn flat seemed pretty strong (AJ, maybe AQ+).

Sorry had a long session and can't recall the details exactly...

I think the flop bet was too optimistic because we are firing into too many people for a backdoor draw.

But i get what u were aiming for.

as played I call this off but thats cause Im not good enough to fold backdoor draws that hit yet.

Ugh I guess given the price you have to call. I can see myself either x/j river or overbet jamming river, depending on villain tendencies.

Who's check calling that turn with a set?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3003 using Tapatalk

Nobody chk/called anything. Hero leads all streets.

I was talking about the villain. He is very unlikely to have a full house here. You would have heard of it if he did on flop or turn on such a wet board. Also I don't think he has a better flush. He would have had to make a questionable float the flop. So I'd just raise.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3003 using Tapatalk