2/5, $250 effective (hero covers), 7 handed. Villain seems to be a loose passive type, hero has a TAG/nitty image and has only shown down nutted hands. Hero and villain played a pot earlier that isn't of much relevance to this hand, but hero showed down a nutted hand.

OTTH

Villain opens LJ $10, hero 3 bets HJ A T $40 and only villain calls. My thinking here was that I saw villain raise twice earlier to bigger sizes and raise sizes tend to be transparent from weak opponents. I normally go 3x-3.5x, but I chose 4x versus his min sizing.

Flop ($87): J 9 3. X-hero $30-c.

Turn ($147); K. X-hero? Do you like shoving here or giving up?

I take the free card because the K smacks his continuing range otf and I'm not sure he's folding pair+gutter.

I've seen a rash of these hands where we severely misplay our flop check range, putting us on the turn with way too much junk.

Check flop, bet turn. Easy game.

As played might as well gii. Villain may be bad enough to fold. 50bb spots are commonly misplayed by passive villains who will overfold.

As played, not terrible gii vs Xing. Blocking nutty hands and TP/TK.

However, I'd X flop w/o a spade on board, which would increase the number of turn cards we can semi.

I don't really like to iso the shorties b/c of these weird SPR spots when we miss but it depends on the player, is V in for 100bb and losing? Or bought in short and possibly scared money?

I check flop with no spade, better hands aren't folding to 1/3 sizing and we really just have one over and bdsd. When V calls the c-bet, it just makes the awkward SPR worse when we don't have much going for us other than initiative.

As played, I would probably take the free card. If we jam what are we trying to fold out? I guess 55-88 and weak flopped pairs like Jx and 9x? That seems thin though since a lot of the flopped pairs are now gutters or 2 pair.

If V seems like scared money or weak tight post flop maybe I go for it. It seems close.

ATss seems like a good hand to bet the turn with because you unblock all his backdoor flush draws that bricked and have to fold. Also, you still have 4 outs to the nut straight and 3 outs to top pair, but aren't too sad if he checkraises and you have to fold.
Generally, on Kx turns in 3-bet pots you're supposed to be betting super high frequency because of your AK, KQ, etc advantage and there are even spots when solvers will barrel with their whole range when the turn is a king.

Other than that I would be careful about 3-betting too large preflop because of the stack sizes. By going to 8bb you make 4-bet jamming very effective against you because he wins more money when he jams and you have to fold. I also think 3-betting these middling hands which are good enough to just call like ATs which have to fold to a 4-bet becomes a bit worse for the same reason that he can 4-bet shove at a high frequency.

You also don't have to shove turn. You're going to have some parts of your range which are either nutted and/or don't need protection which can just bet small on the turn, like 1/3 pot, and then jam river.

I just ran two sims for this spot, one at 100bb and one at 50bb. Your flop sizing is a little bit too big, you should only be going 1/4 pot at this stack depth. The people above saying not to bet without a backdoor flush draw are wrong, at shorter stack depths it's better to bet without the backdoor flush draw if your combo has to fold to a checkraise since at low SPRs OOP is more likely to checkraise light due to the equity threshold needed to stackoff being lower, therefore you bet less with a backdoor flush draw because you don't want to be checkraised off your equity, whereas having to fold without a backdoor isn't as bad.

My intuition that you're supposed to barrel Kx turns at a super high frequency was also correct, in both the 50bb and 100bb sims IP actually has no checking range on the turn. Here you could just simplify to barreling 1/3 pot with your whole range. Jamming would definitely be a mistake however just because of how many good hands IP has that have OOP drawing dead; you want to bet small to jam river against his marginal holdings.

Also, in the 50bb sim the flop cbet frequency is much lower; compared to 100bb there's less urgency to build a pot on the flop with value hands because you can easily just bet turn and shove river to get the money in.

Lock your sim for a realistic live c/r range...

So I take it y'all don't like betting range on this flop? I know in theory it's horrible, but going off of live play his range is almost certainly wide enough to make this a profitable play. I say this especially because with his raise sizing I wouldn't think he has any overpairs or top set, maybe not even middle set. I do expect all pairs worse than 9x to fold - do you think this is optimistic?

@Hydra I wasn't really concerned with getting 4 bet because LLSNL raise sizes tend to be pretty transparent. I thought I had fold equity, and I also don't like flatting positions other than BTN and BB is why I 3 bet.

EDIT: Also I never thought about betting 1/3 on the turn. The problem I have with that is that I feel like we don't have any fold equity on the river if we do that, whereas shoving maximizes our fold equity and is barely an overbet.

You don't want profitable plays, though, you want best plays.

Eh and this was why commented when hydra posted the solve.
What is the best play?

A solver is just a model that reacts to inputs. Playing perfectly it seems from hydras solve that unblocking the bdfd is better, but then if V doesn’t c/r enough in 3-bet pots, we get to bet more on the flop (still wouldn’t bet range on this flop). Simplifications involve loss of EV vs equilibrium but also reduce complexity and make it more likely that the solver strategy is followed...

Hi all. Longtime lurker (as in, over 10 years). I just looked back at 2+2 to see if anyone has confirmed the rumor that Encore Boston Harbor poker is coming back soon, but... no luck. And now I'm looking up strat threads....

I have learned a ton for all of you regs, and esp 67o, thanks for all the knowledge.

For this hand, I am wondering why the iso 3! of 4x to 40$. Although he opened small, I usually hear alarm bells when I see a reg use alternate sizing in a situation like this (isolating a fish). If CO, BTN, SB, BB are alert and aggressive players, they may well pick up on the sizing and stick in a light 4! on you, and if it's CO or BTN clear fold; SB or BB, at best a marginal defend. I don't run into this much at 1/3 (except a tougher game like the Wynn), but at 2/5, it's a concern. I know I've 4! light from BB if I sniff something like this going on.

Also, a standard 3! to 3x gives you more room to triple barrel with his stack size, although in-game, I doubt I would have worked that out pre-flop.

As played, with 87$ in the pot on the flop, I likely would check back. Online, I would bet 1/4 pot, 22$, and good likelihood V calls and I can blow him off with turn or river bets. But live, I have found that a 1/4 pot c-bet is taken as super-weak, and even loose-passive and tight-passive players will spazz a little, or suddenly recall a Doug Polk video that they saw and x/r 8-7 on you, and you get an imbalance in x/r instead of x/c and probably have to fold. With 1/3 pot bet, and x/c, we're stuck with this awkward SPR situation on the turn. Makes me lean towards x/x.

His weak open and flat of your 3! gives him a range, i'd think, of almost all the off-suit broadways (splitting AK, AQ, KQ with you -- likely that this guy doesn't 4! AKo), splits the suited BWays with you, and has more Ax, SC, and middle pairs. Without running poker cruncher, J-9-x hits this range pretty hard. Harder than A-T no FD. If he has A-x or SC or MP, you can still blow him off with a turn bet. Esp if it's the K, which smashes your range.

Back to as played, with the K turn, he has a ton of pair+SD combos, including most of the made-straight Q-T, and a few 2Pr, so it's a check-back. Risking a 1.2x pot jam, it can get called by much of his range, especially as loose-passive players can be quite optimistic with pair+gutshot with one card to come. He may well have registered your tight image and showing of nuts, and have you on AA, AK, KK, but will make a (perceived, perhaps) -EV call to crack it.

Check back, jam blank river

Agree this is an excellent turn to fire 2nd barrel, its mostly a question of picking the best sizing so we can get some folds with river shove.

Great posts from hydra.

Pre, 3bet for value is good.

Check flop, bet turn.

I don't think barrelling bad players off hands when we have air (or a backdoor straight draw turned gutter) is the right approach to playing 2/5 at all but I suppose everyone has their own way of playing this game.

What's the best play?

I'm glad you finally posted, I hope you'll start posting more and also post some hands of your own. Thank you for the kind words.

I 4x'd pre because I think the probability of getting it heads up goes up way more than if we 3x'd it. $30 is almost the size of an open, and is some villain's open size - it could easily go multiway whereas I think $40 greatly diminishes those chances. I wasn't concerned about getting 4 bet light - I'm not saying it never happens, but it's pretty MUBSy at a table of unknowns at a live 2/5 game. We have an easy fold if we get 4 bet.

I haven't explored 1/4 sizing except in the rare 4 bet pot so I really can't comment on that. It probably can't be bad though if it only has to work 20% of the time and you do it with value, too. Yes, spazz does exist, but it also exists with 1/3.

The problems I have with checking the turn and then betting the river are: 1) Except maybe 9x, I don't see which pair + gutters call turn but fold river but this also gets into the problem of 2) it looks really bluffy and could get called even wider than a turn bet would.

So how much are you betting on the turn when you check the flop? I've seen you make some goofy plays. You never called me back on Tuesday, by the way.

With 180 left we have room to b/f 50

The one that maximizes your expectation. Or, if you prefer, the one that maximizes the expectation of your strategy. Saying "this [is] a profitable play" and not comparing that profitability to your other options stops the analysis short. That's my only point.

Bet like $75 on the turn.

Goofy would be to raise the turn if he were to lead. I would not recommend that here vs this villain with his stack size and our limited equity.

Right. I was asking what you thought the best play was. I feel like in general delay c betting looks pretty FoS, and I don't love the idea of checking down unimproved, letting all of his flopped unpaired hands realize their full equity.

So you think that his calling range is pretty inelastic between $75 and shove?

I would not check the turn. In general, you will have to make a bigger bet on the river to get him to fold a pair than you will now. He is never folding his two pair, sets, or straights. I would bet 60 into the 87 dollar pot. That still leaves you 150 for a river bet. But if he calls the turn and the river is a blank I would probably check behind as Ace high in this situation may actually have show down potential. His most likely holdings would be small pairs that will fold to two bets, suited Ax which you mostly beat, and some broadway cards that might make a pair or straight draw. Your ten blocks some of his straight draws, leaving him with some sets or two pair hands. If he calls the turn the pot will be 207 and he will have 150 left. If he has a made hand I don't think a third barrel will work. I would only bet the river if we hit.