2/5, $750 effective. Hero has been at the table for an hour, bought in for $400, raise/folded a 4 hands on the flop with no cbet (bad boards/parts of my range to continue, sometimes multiway), and has added on $300. Has been the most active preflop of anyone at the table.
Villain is a regular who doesn't know hero. Strong actual TAG who gets aggressive with equity and doesn't play too many hands. Definitely thinks about opponents ranges, might think about what he represents. Has made several good sized raises on drawy boards versus cbets and floats in and out of position, his opponents have always folded.

Table in general has been fairly loose preflop, with 3-4 players seeing most flops, a decent amount of raising, and tight for $200+ bets especially on the turn. There are at least 2 regulars from the $5/$10 game playing; villain may be one of them.

Hero raises to $25 UTG with AK, villain calls in MP, SB and BB call.
Flop: AT5 ($100)
Checks to hero, hero checks, villain checks

I bet here a lot of the time. I checked here because the board is extremely dry, with most hands having 4-5 outs at most, I haven't been cbetting a lot so I should get a lot of respect for my bet, and I don't want to bet 3 streets. By checking I under represent my hand and increase the range that will pay me off.
Turn: 6 ($100)
Checks to hero, hero bets $65, villain raises to $220, folds to hero, hero thinks for around 30-40 seconds and calls.

Ah **** this is what can happen when I slowplay. There is about $500 behind and $540 in the pot once I call. This lets villain own us with his draws, since he can have anything from 78 or possibly as light as KJ
His value range is 56s, 66, 1 A6s that checked back the flop, maybe 1-2 combos of slowplayed flop set, maybe 2-3 combos of slowplayed A(T|5) flopped two pair. So his value range is 9-11 combos.

His strong draw range is 3 nut gutshot/flush draws, 2 gutshot flush draws, 1 OESFD, 6 flush draw + pairs, some of which bet the flop or flat the turn. His weaker draw hands are 3 OESD, 10-15 gutshots, and any number of weaker pairs he decides to turn into a bluff.

If we go all in, he will be calling $500 to win $1040 so he needs 32% equity to call.

His strong draws have 27% equity against us, except for pair+fd which will have 31.8% equity, and 78 which has 34% equity. So he folds 11+1-3+X hands to our turn jam, and calls with 10-12 combos - he may deviate from this, but when he does our jams ev increases. However, he seems to have a similar number of value hands to strong draw raising range, so if his range is mostly strong draws and value hands jamming will mean we're putting in $660 to win $385 when he folds, and will have an average of 12% equity against a range of 66,ThTc,5d5h,65s,AcTc,8h7h,Ac6c. So:
TotalCombos=12-X raise/folding+10-12 raise/calling
-660*.87+890*.13=-458.5=called ev
-458.5*(11/(23+X))+385((12+X)/(23+X)))=0
Which solves to X=1.1
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i...X%29%29%29%3D0

so if villain raises a little more than 1 combo of OESD on the turn, jamming is more +EV then folding. How about calling? When we call vs a range like
66,ThTc,5d5h,65s,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,AcTc,Jh9h,Th8h,9h8 h,9h7h,8h7h,Ac6c,5h4h
we have 40% equity. So our turn EV is:
.4*385-155*.6=$61

Our turn jam has the same amount of EV when X=5.6

But it isn't that simple - most cards on the river improve at least 4 combos of our opponents range to beating us, 9 improve 12 combos. So we can't just say our turn EV is $61, since villain will be able to jam 6 combos of draws on the river (4 hit, 2 bluffs to make us indifferent to calling), plus however many value hands he still feels he can jam balanced with 4-6 more of his bluffs.

Anyway, I end up calling.
AT56
River: Q ($540)
I check, villain bets $420
I now lose to KJ, however my AQ combos may be enough to prevent villain from valuebetting two pair, so depending on how many KJ combos he has there may be less value combos that beat me. My hand range is probably perceived to be AJ+ (discounted), turn combo draws especially with a pair (discounted), and some slowplayed strong hands similar to his range but also including AA. Of those, if I fold AK he has a profitable jam with 100% of his range. Based on this, I think I should call, especially since I am underrepresented and playing OOP vs a good TAG.

I like the flop check given the dynamics. Turn bet is good, as is call with these reads. I don't think he has much KJ here at all, as he has soo little equity with it against your perceived range. Prob KhJh only. I see no need to jam turn as he's already denied most of his draws a decent price.

River is a call, imo. You are very under-repped, he's aggro, and you may well have a w/t image. He has a lot of busted draws in his range, imo.

I can get behind the flop check.
I'd never do it, but I will never hae the image you claim.

Turn and river are snap calls though given how you've played the hand.
Our hand looks a lot like a stubborn KK or a weak AX that wants to fold.

Call, profit.

Baluga. /thread

V raises turn with two people behind him on ace high board? How often are you actually good here? Just bet the flop. You have one pair not a set.

The villains behind checked twice. If I have a set I bet flop, unless it is top set, because I want 3+ streets. I don't want 3+ streets with AK. Betting flop is fine and I do it often, but I also like being able to check occasionally on the flop and still have strong hands in my range.

That assumes TPTK holds against three players. Giving free turn card means you have no idea what all three V ranges are and whether they have a made hand or draw on turn, and which river cards strengthen the made hands or complete the draws. Against three random top 25% hands you probably have a pretty good chance of being outdrawn on the turn even though it's a pretty dry flop. Lots of broadway gutshots and backdoor FDs that you're letting stick around for free.

I really don't like the flop check.

As played turn is a fold.

Flop check adds a lot of deception to your holdings.


If you had c-bet on flop and he followed the same line, think it changes things, but as played, river is a call, as well as turn. Image you describe villain to have is doing this with every busted draw and tons of lesser holdings than TPTK.

It is certainly possible I'm wrong about the turn, but in order to make any sort of argument you are going to have to address all that math I did that shows a jam is more +ev then folding. Saying "you should take X action" without any sort of reasoning behind it is bull**** when I've put a lot of reasoning, ranges, and real numbers out there to directly address.