2/5 hand

V1 ($1k) - regular well know for being super tight. Played many hands with him. He knows his image and generally thinks that regulars won't make moves against him. I've used that perception to take down pots here and there through bluffs. Not going to stack off with one pair against a regular.

V2 (covers) - table whale. Playing 40-50% of hands, has never folded a limp to a single raise and shown down hands as bad as 8-3. Only played one hand against hero, hero flopped trips, villain flopped a flush draw with J3 suited. Villain donked, hero raised 3x, villian called. On turn villian checked and hero bet pot. On the river the flush came in and it went check-check, villian slammed the table in frustration when hero checked behind.

Hero - ($1.6k) - no idea how I am viewed by V2, only played together for an hour or two. V1 views as regular.

Hand:
V1 opens utg for $40, V2 calls in MP, hero calls on button with 8c5c. V1 has JJ+, AK exclusively here, so plan is to make a move on most boards, especially if V2 flats V1's C bet. From history know that V1 will be reluctant to stack off with an overpair unless the flop is draw heavy and will certainly not do it if V2 is still in the hand.

Flop: 10c7c6c

V1 leads for $50, V2 makes it $150. Hero flats, V1 folds (later says he had KK).

Turn is Ad, V2 bets $300, hero calls.

River is 2h, V2 bets $500. Hero?

Thoughts on how I played hand, action on river?

The plan was to get folds from V1 narrow utg range on most flops once V2 calls while simultaneously having to execute a 2-3 barrel bluff against a whale with no fold button?

Instead you nutted your hand, and are IP against V2 facing a raise, bet, bet for most of your stack with what is mostly a bluff catcher OTR. Once turn call, river call - assuming you think this whale is capable of firing with AcX, or a flopped straight/set here. Only a couple flushes you beat, but all in all I don't like the entire hand

? Call or shove obv. Never folding, raising is just too thin when he has all suited combos in history, tho you can discount some Axs.

Idk, how much do you have behind? A shove is def thin but this guy seems like a huge drooler.

so you are trying exploitable stuff?

hm...

you wanna know how to exploit a ridicolously tight preflop raising range? fold pre...

as played, esp vs this particular villain we have to raise/gii on turn imo.

So you avoid playing hands against predictably exploitable players? Does that mean that you only play unpredictable players or that you wait until you have AA against KK?

There's a serious problem on this board of every grinder needing to feel superior by telling anyone who plays anything expect QQ+ to fold pre. Why not accept that play needs to be switched up depending on opponent and that someone who regularly plays with a villain might understand how to play against them?

yeah, i´m sure you will argue, but i don´t believe in your ability, or anyones ability for that matter, to play a hand with that much equity profitably vs villains range

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

68,492,160 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
JJ,QQ,KK,AA, AK	72.84%	49,737,157	299,370
8c5c	27.16%	18,455,633	299,370

in order to do so, you probably would have to soulread him every hand, or have a dead read on him, and tbh, i don´t think you have that, as nobody knows that much about other peoples games imho to make up for that huge equity disadvantage. and this is not good poker.

as sad as it sounds, fold pre. there is just no reason besides ego-contesting to mess with him when having such an equity disadvantage.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...dvice-1523264/

turn is a clear jam to get value from his flush draws, ax, aces up, etc

AP, call I guess

And then what? Is plan to beat V2 at showdown or triple barrel him off of 3rd pair?

Because your plan is fundamentally flawed. There is no flop that doesn't smash his range.

Probably the worst flop for his range is Q high, as it misses 16 combos of AK and 6 combos of JJ, while leaving him 15 combos that love it.

And the only argument you'll be able to muster here when the flop comes ten high and he c-bets that you can tell the difference between a c-bet with AK and a c-bet with AA-JJ is "yeah, but wizard."

Meanwhile, he's exploiting the heck out of you with that giant 8bb open that, when you call, you're saying, "yeah, ok, I'll pay $4000 to flop a flush, trips and two pair twice. That's a reasonable price."

Had you dipped down into your calling range here and said "giant whale called OOP, I have great IO against him," I might have had some sympathy for the call. But, no, you said that you plan to outplay a premium range that smashes almost every flop, and that you plan to magically wizard profits in a pot that is protected by the whale's call.

So, bottom line here, is that you don't understand how to play against V1, and you certainly did not understand that, if there is profit in this play for you, it comes about in exactly the way this hand played out: you have the opportunity to win a big pot from the whale.

It seems to have escaped your notice, so I will say it directly: Your plan was to wizard exploit V1, the tight PFR, and he's the only player in this hand who wasn't exploited.

#toughlove. Sorry, but your thought process was just a mess, and there's no nice way to say it.

The whole point is that equities don't matter because you are never getting to the river if you play correctly. Poker is very situational. Should you generally try to make an overpair fold? No. Of course not. Can you when you have a history with villain? You can. If you don't think that you can read people then you can wait until you get aces and complain whenever they get cracked.

Do I have a soulread on him? I don't know the exact hand that he had. I know the 5 hands he could have had though. You don't think that being able to peg a villain to 5 hands pre is an advantage?

I have to agree with Jam it on the River here.

If we know that the Villian will never stack off with one pair then it is so easy to be able to push them off their hand, ESPECIALLY in a multiway pot, since the villain will give hero a ton of credibility for making a hand.

We can exploit nits because they are MUBSY. With any two cards hero can rep any scare cards that come on the turn and river and put max pressure on a villain who is too scared to call big bets with one pair.

The whale being in the hand can make the bluff a little tougher to get through, but its not terrible that he is in the hand because is range is so wide, chances are is that he has very weak holdings and can find a fold button when the hero sticks in a big raise and shows massive strength.

hmmmm, bluff the whale.... what could go wrong?

I don't mind the plan pre generally, if the range you gave villain is correct i would rather call with this hand then AQ suited. however i do not like the plan to both bluff UTG off and overpair and get a whale off a hand. I think its an ok call given whale is a station and you have at least some implied odds against UTG. Think you have to GII on turn against the whale. never folding Ac, 2 pair, set, or a good pair IMO.

Just a 1/2 player, but here goes:

I like the idea of being able to push the NIT off the hand, especially knowing they won't stack off without 2pr+. The whale means great IO for when we make a hand.

I think it's really MUBSY to think the whale (V2) is weighted towards bigger flushes. I suspect we can include virtually all 2pr, sets and straights on the flop and turn. If we got over flushed, I'll call it a cooler.

With $120 preflop, $450 added on the flop, and $600 on the turn, we have over $1k behind when he fires $500 into $1150ish. I don't think he finds the fold button when we jam (facing $1100 into a now $2k+ pot). You played the hand to out flop the whale, and I think we did. Time to shove it in and drag a big pot.


IRL, I'm just (tank) calling. But that's why I'm stuck at 1/2, not maximizing EV.

Yeah, you realize you just said that we can bluff UTG off his hand and that we have implied odds against him, too?

The preflop plan was ridiculous. OP spiked a 4 in 122 flop: 118 out of 122 times he flops like dog crap.

Preflop was just terrible.

What kind of "move" are you planning on making here? What kind of flops, let alone most boards...?

AP: Call river.

Any ace high flop he is going to check fold unless he has AA or AK. Any paired board I can take it away from him. Any board with a flush draw where I pick up something (straight draw or pair) I can float knowing that all the flush cards are bluff outs for me. Boards with a straight I can also make it work. Pretty much the only board that his overpair likes against aggression is 10-6-2 rainbow.

Hero literally has the perfect hand to call with on the button. He can float against nit opening raiser, but also pound whale for value when he flops big.

Just the fact that the hand is multiway is going to make the PF raiser (and even the whale) give hero tons of credibility for hitting a hand. Hero can literally rep ANYTHING to scare off nit PF raiser. Sets, flopped trips, flushes and straights that get there on the turn. Hero could literally make this play with any two cards, but its nice that he happens to have a hand that plays well in deep stack poker.

We have position on whale so we should get an idea of how strong he is in almost all board run outs. By the turn, we will definitely know his hand strength, that's if the whale hasn't folded by then. This isn't 2004 where the fish call us down with bottom pair or gut shot draws. if we stick in a big raise, the whale is not continuing with a marginal hand.

IMO, "to make a move" or "not to make a move" is a lot more due to game flow than anything else. The nit is sitting on 1k. Is he up or down in the session? If he's up, he is going to be wayyyyy less likely to call of his stack with an overpair. Has he been pushed off a hand this session? If he has, he's gonna be much more susceptible to fight back. If he hasn't, then he won't be as suspicious of hero.

Same thing with whale. How hot has he been running the past hour or so? How did he build his stack? Did he call down a multi-street bluff attempt? If yes, then he's gonna be looking for more opportunities to call light. If he's been getting smacked in the face with the deck and is up in the session then he's probably going to play a lot more abc, fit/fold post flop. If he's been losing then he may tilt by becoming a super donk calling station.

Hero is in a much better position to determine this then the rest of the forum. But I do think its short-sighted to dismiss his pre-flop strategy.

I actually don't hate your thinking in general, however it's difficult to make a move against an overpair when there's the third player in the hand as well. Tricky to bluff someone off an obvious premium when there's a massive station fish in the hand as well who won't fold.

Oh, and as played, I like 3b the flop vs this villain to $350 and shoving all blank turns.

Grunch.

Fold pre. Your plan for this hand or absolutely horrible. You're against a range that has you absolutely crushed and a player who won't fold anything, and you plan to bluff with air? This is not how you win at LLSNL. If you were against either one of these players heads up, you could make some sort of argument (probably still not a good one) for playing this hand, but against both you are just burning money.

As ill-conceived as the preflop plan was, I think not jamming the turn was the greater error. Flop was well played though.

How can you possibly be playing 2/5 while making statements like this? Do you have any idea at all how to count combinations? The majority of combinations in the starting range you gave him hit an ace high flop.

Well I guess the good news is that this board demonstrates why live poker is still profitable in the post-boom era.

If an ace flops, then V1 has 18 combos of JJ-KK. He also has 12 combos of AK and 3 combos of AA. So an A actually misses him more than half the time. Obviously this assumes that a J,Q,K do not hit alongside an Ace, but you get the point. An ace on the board limits the combos he can have. If you want to take JJ out of his range, it becomes more marginal, but none of that matters too much because:

I know villian and villian is predictable, therefore I can play perfectly against him when an ace flops. If he bets, I am not calling because my read is that he is never betting a non ace (obviously there are some rare exceptions such as monotone boards where he has KK and is drawing to the nut flush.) If he checks I am betting because he is never checking AK and only rarely AA against 2 villains, since he is scared of getting cracked.

So if an ace is bad for half his range and an ace allows me to play perfectly against him, why am I trying to avoid an ace again?