Villain -BTN- He's a NIT, very selective PF, very careful post, reads hands well and I've never seen him run any big bluffs

Hero -MP- Has been pretty active and Villain has played with me before (and has brought it up a lot) so he knows I'm TAG (with a little LAG thrown in) there are 2-3 way more active players at the table and one deep stacked 'uber fish'

Villan has $750 (I cover by a lot)

Hero is in MP w/AcAd
Fish calls $5, Hero raises to $35, Villain calls $35, everyone else folds

- Fish always calls after a limp and I'm shocked that he didn't. Villain must have a PP (possibly big) two big suited cards, maybe AK and possibly some SC (I lean slightly towards big PP because of the bet size but just slightly as I think he'd possibly raise with those hands thinking I was 'iso'ing the fish.)

Flop: J96r
$82 (2 Players) Hero bets $65, Villain calls $65

- Alarm bells start to go off (or at least my senses are peaked.) This guy is a NIT so it could be QQ+ (maybe) TT (unlikely) JJ, 99 or 66 (definitely possible) J9s (possibly possible) AJ (again possible) JXs (possible as well.) The thing is, my perceived range is all over the map but I'm not sure he's capable of floating with air or a medium strength hand (I doubt it) or if he'd raise with an overpair, 2P type hand. I'm also pretty sure he probably slow plays a set until the turn. I don't see QTs or T8s making up too much of his range but I'm not completely discounting those hands either (but I'm pretty sure he'd play them passively.)

Turn: Kss
$212 (2 Players) Hero?

- KK just pulled ahead as did KJs and QTs. AK just made a hand but I have 2 aces, QQ is still behind and JJ, 99 and 66 still have me smoked...

...Help me?

I think QT and KJ are unlikely being that the villain is very selective pre flop. I take AK out of his range after the flop because given description I dont think he floats us as bluffing is not in his nature. I think it leaves us with only sets and OP's which then it comes down to preflop tendancies with JJ+ with a raiser in front of him.

Ill post some more later.

If the guy is a nit i´m going for 2 streets of value against him as he is now throwing away all hands that you beat and calling or raising better. FWI KQ is the only hand that you beat that would call a flop and turn bet from a nit. That is if calling overs and GS is in his range. I would check call the turn and evaluate, hope to hit an A on the river.

Do your cbets mean anything to Villain? For instance, do you cbet ~90% and villain knows this? IMO his range is dependent on that. If your image is strong player and cbet means strong hand, I put him on range JJ+,99,66 after calling your flop bet. I check after K hits, if he has QQ it's a scare card for him.
It really depends on your History w/villain, seems like you have long history

hmmmm, do i want to play a big pot, out of turn, against a nit?

....c/c turn, c/f river unimproved? God that's so weak.

- Will he flat the flop with TT/88/77?

if he checks the turn back to us (as a nit will do with a one pair hand), I think it's OK to c/c a decent-sized bet on the river when we don't improve, based on your description.

don't show if you fold, of course.

Either:

1) Check/call one street and then check/fold river; or
2) Bet turn and expect to take it down if you are ahead

The board is so drawy, its pretty hard for him to flat call the turn with any hand that beats us and I doubt we can get 3 streets of value from a hand that beats us.

MUBS. Nits don't call with QT or KJ pf.

Bet turn. If he raises, fold.

I have played one other session with this villain (~4h) where for the last 2h we were 4 handed playing $2/$5 w/mandatory blind $10. We were playing this way because there was an 'uber' fish spewing purple chips like crazy and we didn't want the game to die (or chop every second hand.) He did not do well in this game as the format did not fit his style well. That said, I can't be sure what he thinks my cbets mean.

FWIW: I cbet that board a lot HU (expecting to get called often but being prepared to barrel all good turn cards.)

A pot sized bet will raise pot commitment issues. I'd check the turn and if he checks back, you can make a small river value bet when a blank hits, because he likely has a one pair hand. If the nit bets, I think you're done.

Crsseyed asks a good question about your table image. If you're raising every hand, then even a nit will open his range a bit.

Oh, and DallasDonkey...that avatar is mesmerizing.

Would villain think we're capable of check/raising the turn with a strong hand?

I believe he thinks I'm capable of anything

This makes it more difficult IMO as ranges/play style of course would be very different 4 handed. Is villain smart enough to know this tho? (not all are).

I would ask myself, would villaon flat with a set or raise?
The more I think of it, I would put AJ in his range also.
After K hits you"re in way ahead/way behind situation. You could check or also try small bet ~$70(1/3 pot)

If I bet the turn what hands am I getting value from other than 'stubborn non-believers' and possibly AK (IF he floats such hands?)

Then that makes checking the turn more of an option because he may check behind with TT, A9, AJ, T8, 87 etc allowing us to value bet some rivers.

I don't see how you can do anything but check this turn.

This. I like a half pot bet on the turn, that could rep a set of kings, and still gives you value if he gets stubborn with a hand like AJ or JQs/JTs that was hoping to improve on the turn. Definitely C/F if he calls the turn.

KURT this should be the HH of the week imo. Please sticky if there isnt one already.

Speaking of which, when are you posting the results of yours?

99... I was waiting for some more replies.... maybe I will go post now.

with no particular dynamic going on, i would chk turn. Not for fear of being behind, but to raise doubt in villains mind.

Turn: Kss
$212 (2 Players) Hero checks, Villain bets $120, Hero?

I just dont see what we beat here. If he is that much of a nit, and is somewhat passive I can find my fold button. I do think we are behind. The only thing I would change is that I would b/f the turn. If you say he will turn his hand face up OTT then let him. The only thing you did by checking is allow QQ to now bet because he is probably saying "Oh hai I must be ahead" and now level yourself into a call because, "Oh hai we underrepped our hand."

This is why b/f is superior on the turn to c/c in this situation. If he raises, you can happily muck your cards (he's never bluffing). You can't fold unless you're convinced he's so nit passive he'll never bet without a set. If you call the turn, you shouldn't be folding to a 1/2 PSB on the river getting 3:1 either.

I checked because I couldn't think of a hand I beat that I could get value from but once he bet I couldn't think of a hand I beat that wouldn't check behind other than AK, QQ or air (and this guy is truly a NIT so very little floating would be taking place imo.)

b/f seems like the best line (but it's a lot like 'raising for information') and what if he just calls?

...I throw away big hands all the time but I'm not sure I'm good enough to fold here (it sure does feel like a set to me though... PF, flop & turn action as evidence to this.)

$125/fold if hes a super nit as you say then you can just c/f the river since hes never bluffing and prob wants to showdown his jx hands

If I folded and he didn't show I'm probably buying him a beer to see what he had...but i'm telling him I had AQ instead of AA