Hero- Laggy image, V definitely knows I have a very wide range on the button and will cbet at a high frequency.

Villain - Has played with me a LOT. Usually a very ABC player but when playing against me will float and take different lines because we have played each other so much.

Effective stacks = 500

2 limpers to me on the button with 77. I open to 30. V calls from the BB, everyone else folds.

Flop (70) 3 8 9

V checks, H bets 50. V calls

I bet 50 to charge any straight/flush draws, and I know V will float me quite often, especially on a flop like this. Thoughts?

Turn (170) 3 8 9 2

V checks, H bets 100. V calls

Again, trying to charge flush and straight draws. Is this too thin?

River (370) 3 8 9 2 2

V checks, H checks.

How does my line look? I really don't want to give draws free cards, but my hand is also extremely vulnerable. Thanks!

Bet a little less on the flop. I think 40/80 accomplishes the same thing. He's not folding those draws to you for the 50 in all likelihood if he thinks you will try to represent them with a bluff.

Standard. Looks good to me.

Looks fine. Like rumor said, smaller otf can manage the pot and achieve the same results. Should be more draws in his range that stronger made hands.

If there are more draws than made hands doesn't that mean we want to be betting larger on the flop? (The most we think he'll call)

Yes, that was my thinking also. I purposely sized larger because I knew he would call with his draws, so there was a good chance I was getting more money in good. On the other hand, He would also call me if he had a pair of 9's or 8's, so I risked value owning myself

i think i check turn here. you say you want to charge draws but you are still giving 2.5 - 1 and it seems like against an ABC player he is going to call with draws until the river or until he hits. i think checking the turn to keep the pot small is a good play bc you dont want to have to fire when a scary river card comes and be forced off your hand

The line seems good.

Not firing the turn is pretty bad imo.
When we check turn he is going to fire like his whole range otr.
When we bet turn we still charge all his draws, it's less likely for him to fire when he misses, he will sometimes fold an 8 and when he has a 9 (or calls with 8) we get to showdown cheap by checking back river.

Line seems standard up to the river check back.

Since you have so much history with this villain, I'm guessing that you didn't bet the river because you knew he would call down with all his 9x and 8x hands?

The reason I'm asking is a lot of villains have a hard time calling a big 3rd river barrel w/ weak one pair hands.

If you thought he would usually 3bet JJ+ pre, and raise 2 pair and sets before the river, then his range would be weighted heavily toward busted draws and 8x 9x.

I'm not sure who covers who in this spot but it seems like a bet of ~$250 would force folds from this kind of range from the vast majority of llnl opponents. TT and A9s seem like the only hands an average vill could/might call that bet with.

With so much history between you to, what are his river tendencies? How light can he call down? Does his river calling frequency change depending on his stack size? Does he play monsters super slow or passively? Is he likely to bluff the river when he misses?

This information, to me, is really important. Against the majority of players I would turn my hand into a bluff on the river here. I'm hating my life if I check behind and lose to 9Ts or J8s and the like.

I spent awhile on the river debating doing just that. The problem I saw was that if he indeed had an 8 or 9, there are so many draws that missed by the river. If he had the pair he might level himself into thinking that I was bluffing myself with a missed draw. Thus, I decided to just check to close the action and get value from his missed draws, which I thought made up a large part of his range.

This.

I think b/f $165 on the river is good. You have to value-own yourself sometimes in order to maximize. If he's calling the river with an 8 or 9 then you should have no trouble getting his stack to combine with yours in front of you.

Otherwise, I think its fine. Sizing is fine, but slightly bigger or small is fine too.

I mean I guess it's an okay line but you know you're losing the hand as you're checking the river, right?

Checking turn is not horribad as others have said, villain is air balling a missed draw much more than he's value betting a pair of eights otr.

Is your reasoning that he would donk out missed draws on the river, and check 8's or 9's? I checked behind figuring that my hand was good a pretty large % of the time, so if you could clarify why you think that me checking the river means I'm losing the hand I would greatly appreciate it. Thanks!

nh

Yes, my reasoning is pretty much in line with patchohare's post.

If villain c/c's two street oop and checks a missed draw otr, it better be the A high flush draw and he better be calling a third barrel. Or 9x or 8x.

Otherwise c/c'ing two streets and check/giving up a whiffed draw is pretty bad. Yes it will look iffy if he leads river big, most semi thinking players wouldn't do that, but also most semi thinking players wouldn't c/c two street with a naked draw.

A stronger draw (like J10, 67) I think we'd see more aggression from otf or ott.

So once he checks river I'm pretty sure his hand has value, and I think the only way to win is to turn 77 into a bluff. Not saying that you should, just that I feel that is the only way to win this hand. Unless he has exactly 66.

Yeah that makes sense.

Thought managing the pot may be more important though

This is tough. I think your line is perfect against an unknown, but a warier Villain could very well have 8x or 9x. But I think bombing the river is too expensive unless Villain would find it uncharacteristic of you to do so without exactly KK or AA.

On balance this is the right line I think; Villain may simply have read you well and beaten you with the benefit of being the passive counterpart.

Tough one.

I agree with the concept but I'm not sure that difference is enough to fold his draws.

If I wanted to do that I'd fire a PSB on flop.

Or take a line like 1/2 pot on flop and then full pot on turn.

Results: I tabled my 77 and villain mucked what he said was a 3. Up till that point i had been extremely aggressive and barreling a bunch, so I guess he got tired of it and tried to bluff catch. I got really lucky in this hand, just looking for what I should do in this situation in the future. Thanks for the input guys

He lied.

I agree with not firing the river here, I think hes never folding an 8 or 9 after he has called the turn on such a dry card.

I like how this was played.

I always struggle with spots like this because I feel like the draws we are getting called by are heavily skewed towards ones that are beating us in equity. Against KQs and ATs we're a 55/45 dog. Because he flatted out of the SB I feel his hands are more heavily weighted towards broadway draw hands that have two overs to us rather than 67o or 56sc hands. Also we're up against a villain that sounds as though he is c/r this flop some of the time with a larger than normal range. When we have ~50% equity against a flop calling range, can we make an argument to check behind OTF for pot control?? Then BFV when turn brick cards come like it did here?

Grunch

Against this V with history against you, id definitely cbet <100% of hands. If you fire turn/river instead, you bloat the pot way less. Not saying this is a terrible spot to cbet, just general comment.

I think your logic is a little funky though... I don't really expect V to be drawing to a flush here... I expect that he'd have smacked that board with suited connectors or has an unimproved small-mid pocket pair. Also think he could have a set.

AP, Flop and turn sizing is fine, and I would also check back river.


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