2/5 3bet protected pot river decision vs unknown - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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2/5 3bet protected pot river decision vs unknown

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09-26-2016 , 07:54 AM

Jarretman

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 2,939

Effective stacks with V are 800.

Villain is unknown but seems reggish (has a card protector, seems pretty comfortable). Absolutely no history with villain.

Hero is UTG with QsQh.

Hero raises to 25, villain calls UTG+1, shortstack shoves for 75, hero raises to 200, villain calls.

Flop 185 in main, 250 in side: AsJc4x

Hero checks, villain checks

Turn: 2h

Hero checks, villain checks

River: 7s

Hero checks, villain bets 165, hero?

Not sure what bluffs could be in villains range if we assume he's competent. But we are getting such good odds...

Last edited by Jarretman; 09-26-2016 at 08:01 AM.

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09-26-2016 , 12:09 PM

TommyTD

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 47

Gross spot as usual. I think you have to bet at some point on the flop or turn to see where we are at, otherwise we are left with no information on the river bet. Interested to hear if people think that is just lighting money on fire. If I'm in his position, I'm value betting a ton of hands after the flop and turn checks.

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09-26-2016 , 01:31 PM

djevans

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 5,122

you are beat most of the time or else he would of bet bigger as a bluff.

I am folding as played - we can see his hand any ways and if he bluffed than good job.

I think you have to bet flop small. I might only take this check/check line with AA. I am betting JJ small for value.

You are never checking AK, AQ, so when you check your hand looks like kings or queens.

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09-26-2016 , 04:39 PM

OMGSwineFlu

centurion

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 170

Our reads our villain seems competent. Villain calls an UTG open, and then calls UTG's 4B! (He has to have a pretty strong hand here)

I believe Villain can have both {AK,AA} here, and sometimes {JJ}, though less likely. Based on the turn check/check, I'd actually think he has AA here more often than AK. (AA doesn't need to protect his hand as much as AK would, and wouldn't mind letting hero 'catch up')

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09-26-2016 , 05:13 PM

Jarretman

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 2,939

^ so what do you do on the river?

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09-26-2016 , 05:17 PM

OMGSwineFlu

centurion

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 170

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jarretman

^ so what do you do on the river?

I would check fold.

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09-27-2016 , 02:28 AM

BenT07891

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,641

I'd call.

Every time you face a bet heads up or 3 way, you should be calling the good majority of the time.

For just the main pot, you only need to be good like 30% of the time + to call. That's not even taking into account the side pot.

Villain was getting 2:1 pot odds preflop, and did not reraise when given 2 opportunities. He doesn't need to be super strong to flat pre, I'd say AQ, 99-QQ, AK are a good portion of his range as well as KQs, maybe KJ or QJs.

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09-27-2016 , 10:24 AM

Jarretman

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 2,939

^ If he's competent I don't think he has any AQ, KQs, KJs, QJs. However, he's unknown with no reads. So there's no way to know if he's loose or tight pre in this spot.

I agree that with the amazing odds its kinda hard to fold here.

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09-27-2016 , 07:06 PM

BenT07891

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,641

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jarretman

If he's competent, AQ is probably a fold but wouldn't be an awful call. If he knew you had kk and short stack had jj, it's worth calling with position. But as played, we should be able to discount ak, aq, and sets from his range a little since he didn't bet flop or turn. If he does have 1010 here he should know that his only way to win the pot is betting....1010 wins at showdown never if you aren't 4 betting light.

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