Villian is a new face to me in a room where new faces arent all that common. He blind raised to $15 when he came onto the table from UTG, went a flop and c/folded. He had blind raised all 3 UTGs so far to $15 or $16. He hadnt done anything out of line up until this point, winning a decent pot in standard fashion.

Hero is mid twenties white guy and hadnt gotten out of form since Villian joined table

Villian has $790 and hero covers comfortably.

Hero is MP dealt A Q
UTG blind raises to $15, Hero raises to $40, CO calls $40, folds to Villian who calls $40

Flop ($127) A Q 5
Villian checks, Hero bets $80, CO folds, Villian calls $80

Turn ($287) 9
Villian checks, Hero bets $200, Villian tank calls

River ($687) T
Villian moves all in for $470, Hero?

Live reads during the hand: Flop he called in rythm but on the turn he went into the tank for a little bit, often looking at his chips, cut them down. I wasnt sure whether he was working out raise sizes or something but it seemed he was def working out his remaining stack for river action. On the river he had his eyes to the felt but raised them to the board once it was dealt and slid his chips in smoothly but instantly.

More OTF

Less turn

Fold river

Appreciate the inclusion of the live reads during the hand. His tank on the turn could have been him mulling over whether or not to continue defending with a marginal hand (Ax or something) but more likely, given the river action, he had a flush was trying to determine whether or not to raise you on the turn or wait to jam to river. As it turned out, villain determined that your $200 bet on OTT set up his stack nicely for a river shove.

After his river jam, your hand basically becomes a bluff catcher and I really don't think villain would ever take that line (c/c, c/c, jam) with a total air ball. Yes, he could have like KcX, but I think most players willing to play a huge pot like this with a naked flush draw would have c/r the turn rather than jamming the river.

we are getting 2.46:1 on our money

In order to be good here, villain needs to be bluffing roughly 30% of the time in this spot.

So, the question is, based on what we've seen from villain, does he have it in him to bluff roughly 30% of the time???

We know he loves to blind raise UTG which is donktastic ******ed. So his range is pretty wide...

Now based on what we know, does this seem like the type of villain to float/chase with Kx hand and I would say yes.

Next question, so if V is drawing and misses on river what do we think he would do???

Based on the limited evidence, I think this villain has more than enough FPS in him to bluff shove 30% of the time on a missed draw in this spot.

So I think a call is profitable here against this villain...

Villain blind raising UTG is not necessarily indicative of someone who bluffs, especially without any other reads to support it. It's more indicative of someone who likes action and wants to build big pots. He ch/f the first time and won a few pots "in standard fashion"

I wouldn't call river solely based on drumming up a conclusion that villain "can" bluff based on the above info..if he is a good hand reader and has the Kc in his hand and can see that hero's range is capped, then "yes"...But these are additional reads that are not provided, as well as a good history between hero and villain, which isn't there.

That being said, can he overplay A-9, Q9....maybe?

I'm leaning towards a fold

Bet more on the Flop

Turn is o.k.

River is close but I tend to Dgiharris argumentation. I'm not that afraid of a flopped flush (often raised at Flop/Turn) than of a rivered straigth. But there are lots of bluffs (Missed Flushes) in his range and I tend to a call.

I'm calling here 100%. I think he has A 10 here.

Poker is a game of incomplete information and many times we have to jump to conclusions. Based on the LIMITED info we have, I think my conclusion is reasonable. Could I be wrong? Sure. But based on our limitedobservations I feel comfortable calling here.

You mention arguments that paint a more competent villain. Is it your experience that competent villains blind raise UTG 3 orbits in a row?

I see two possibilities:
#1 V is an action donk
#2 V is a good meta-game player purposefully losing money so he can set up an image to flop the nuts and stack us later...

#2 is just unlikely, #1 is more probable. And if #1 is more probable then my conclusion has enough certainty to be viable. Of course, as we get more info we can refine our read/profile on V.

Please explain how you put villain on exactly two cards????

I think you misunderstood my post entirely. I'm not saying villain is competent..I'm just saying in the absence of other subtle clues, blind raising UTG doesn't exactly equate to someone who can over bet bluff shove river.

If we are looking for reasons to call, I would be more inclined to level myself into thinking villain can overvalue inferior 2 pairs rather than villain having a 30% (or whatever) river bluff shoving frequency.

Don't you think that is a bit of a stretch to go from what we know (i.e. blind raising pre) to a conclusion of he is bluffing 30% (i.e. one out of three times in this exact same spot this villain will bluff shove)

I think this is KJx a lot or 99x.

I'm folding for a couple of reasons. The primary being the V is an action-type, whose style normally plays draws more aggressively, combining showdown equity+fold equity. I think a hand like KcXx is making a move before the river.

Second reason is the chip-cutting. Personally, I do the same when partitioning to ensure proper sizing by a certain street. I weight this less than the first reason, definitely player-specific.

Additionally, a flopped smaller flush can play more passively since fear of being redrawn is lessened with two big clubs already on board.