If you thought he would never 3 bet AK, then raising flop was not great, esp if he is any sort of thinking player.

In fact, if you goof up and raise here, (knowing villain will not shove AK) and villain shoves as he did....
Then this is a fold as played.
Knowing whether villain will fastplay AK is critical in this hand.

AQ is a great hand don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

well since we are on AQ now, lets make it complete.

AQ is a very good hand given certain circumstances. AQ is trouble given others.
And i mean trouble as in its one of the hands that players who misplay it lose a ton of money on.

It makes hands that when behind, players have trouble folding thus lose more with it than other type hands.

Poker is all relative as we all know. AQ is very good and can be very bad, and if the hero doesnt know when to label it good or bad, then it can be real trouble.

pretty much that.

jesus christ, you're all bad.

flat flop.

raise/calling a shove is throwing money away. ESP if u think he'll never 3bet shove AK here. lol jesus christ.

I do believe I made that point borderline but thanks anyway.

You have to look at dead money - before making judgements - sir.

No I don't. If the guy shoves, you're smashed. And not in a good way. Guy never has A8 here. And rarely does he have a huge draw like KhTh/KhJh/ThJh. LIVE is not online.


Board: Ah Qh 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.547% 06.58% 21.97% 586 1957.50 { AcQc }
Hand 1: 71.453% 49.48% 21.97% 4409 1957.50 { AA, QQ, 88, AQs, AQo }


Let's say he does have a combo draw:

12,870 games 0.005 secs 2,574,000 games/sec

Board: Ah Qh 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.748% 21.54% 15.21% 2772 1957.50 { AcQc }
Hand 1: 63.252% 48.04% 15.21% 6183 1957.50 { AA, QQ, 88, AQs, KhJh, KhTh, JhTh, Th9h, AQo }


35+35+35 = 105 + 35 = 140 + 7 = 147 pf
100 + 275 = 375

700 - 310 = 390.

390 into 375+390+147 = 912
390 into 912 = ~2.34 to 1 = we need 30% equity to call.

bleh. i guess raise/calling is fine. so gross though. i think flatting would be better because we can bluff the heart cards on turn...

so marginal.

I agree - I came up with the same numbers.

The issue is we are creating our own dead money - which prices us in - so we get the issue you get in PLO where each call prices you in to the next - and you end up getting in a ton of money <40% equity.

I have been pondering the EV of a call - given we have an invulnerable holding on this board vs his likely range.

I shove. To much money in the pot and not enough behind to fold Top Two

Your situation/mood/etc doesn't enter into what the best optimal way of playing out a hand is. Your hand, the board, and opponent's hand ranges are all that matters. Now, you can redefine opponent's hand ranges depending on factors such as his mood, playing style, and so forth. If that information leads one to believe that the villain is not likely to push with combo draws but only top cards, then obviously folding is a better option. But if he's a reckless spewing type, folding might be a little harder choice to make. I wouldn't fault a call here.

OK flatters, I want to know your plan if the following happens:

Villain leads $100. Hero calls. 2 folds.

TURN: 4 (POT: $340) I have about $550 behind

Villain bets $225. Hero?

AK does this line every single time, as does A8 and combo draws. But calling would basically commit us to the pot.

And alternatively:

Villain leads $100. Hero calls. 2 calls for "pot odds"

TURN: 4 (POT: $540) I have about $550 behind

Villain puts me all in. Hero?

I just cannot see myself getting off this hand.

Even with EV justifying the call based upon SPR?

I am not buying it, even if this is a marginal situation. I mean, what DOES he do with AK? Flat my raise and have no idea what to do on the turn? Fold on a board with 2 hearts? Both moves are highly exploitable for a thinking player. I think AK can be a part of his range, much more than 88, which likely limps UTG+2.

And even if the range is (AA, QQ, AQ), it is +EV to call the shove. I would say "DUCY", but I know you see why, as you are a smart thinking player. Folding top 2 is exploitable on boards like this.

If this happens, you call the turn, get it in on the river and get coolered. If a heart falls instead, you likely lose more value in the long run if your villain slows down with a weaker hand. And eliminating AK from his range is tough to do, anyway, it is very hard to find a fold with it on this board, and flatting with it is just terrible.

As played, you were coolered. If you flatted and committed on the turn, you also got coolered. Your SPR is under 5 on the flop, stop dwelling on getting it in with top 2 in this situation.