Quote:
Originally Posted by sauhund
I agree with the bolded, and I think he just folds basically his whole range when we overbet and we just protect our hand. Are we really 3betting KQss, Q9ss, 89ss, A3ss and A2ss often enough?
Betting 1/2 to 2/3 puts his marginal hands in a lot tougher spot imo
Against a rec player, as described in the OP, when we're on the BTN, and we've straddled, I think we can 3B suited Broadway connectors and suited wheel aces, for sure. We can't assume V's opening range in the BB when we straddle on the BTN is going to be theoretically correct (meaning, very strong). Few rec players know what hands to raise from every position anyway, much less what hands to open from the BB when the BTN straddles.
Q9s and 89s would be lower frequency 3B's, but a bad rec may not be able to figure that out when we overbet turn and he's chasing a draw or calling light with 1P. In-game, I don't think we need to spend any mental energy wondering if our pre-flop 3B range includes Q9ss or 89ss when we get to the turn.
When we 3B pre, c-bet flop, and barrel turn, our range is going to have a lot of thick value and a few high-equity bluffs for balance, but against a bad rec V, we don't need to worry about too much about balance here. A bad rec is more likely to just look at the strength of his own hand relative to what beats him, rather than consider whether or not we're 3B'ing pre as wide as Q9s or 89s.
I think the theoretically correct line would probably be betting smaller on flop, like 1/3 pot (which hero did here), and betting 1/2 to 75% pot on turn, but that assumes every opponent is the same, and that we can get away from our hand when any of the obvious draws come in on the river. But when we're up against exploitable opponents, we should be taking exploitative lines, no?
Against a rec player who is prone to make mistakes, sometimes big mistakes, I prefer to exploit his leaks for their maximum value, by betting larger on flop and turn, which sets up a situation in which he can't avoid making a huge mistake on the river, no matter what he has, and no matter how he plays it.
Let's say he's chasing a flush, and the river bricks. If he decides to donk-lead as a bluff, obviously we're snapping him off with top set.
Let's say we're on the nut flush draw, and he has a worse flush draw. He's probably going to give up if the draws brick, and probably check-fold all his non-paired hands to a bet. We'll win with ace-high if it goes check-check. He's probably not donk-shoving the river with no pair or even 1P when all the draws brick out. If the flush comes in and he donk-shoves, we'll be snapping him off with the nuts.
If he's calling the whole way with 1P, and the draw comes in, he's probably not donk-shoving 1P as a bluff when we 3B pre and bet big on flop and turn. He's probably just going to check-call again.
If he's on a draw, and the draw comes in, and he donk-shoves, we can just muck. If the draw comes in, and he checks, hoping to check-raise, we can just check back.
When V check-calls a big c-bet on the flop, and check-calls a big barrel on the turn, he's making multiple mistakes, leading to a river where he can only make mistakes, no matter what he does.
When we take hero's line of betting 1/3 pot on flop and 1/2 pot on turn, we're giving V a good price to chase his draws. V may or may not bluff when his draws miss, but he's almost certainly going to be donk-betting for value if he hits his draw, when we take this line, because we're going to be checking back on this river a lot. Likewise, he's incentivized to bluff this river, so it puts our top set in a tough spot.
When V check-calls small bets on flop and turn, it puts us in a tough spot with top set on this run-out. Top set feels like too strong a hand to fold, but we're not at the top of our range anymore, the way we've played this. We're going to have nut flushes here sometimes, so top set isn't the strongest hand in our range.
When we use a larger bet sizing on flop and turn, V shouldn't be getting to the river with very many of his non-nut draws, but when he does, he's going to have a hard time maximizing the value of his hand OOP, when we can just check-back or fold any of our non-nutted hands when he bets, and snap off all his bluffs when we have the nuts.
Alternatively, it's probably fine to bet 1/3 pot on flop, to keep his draws, and 1P hands in, but we absolutely need to bomb the turn when none of the draws possible on the flop complete.
The way hero played this, with the bet sizing he took, I think this has to be a fold on the river. The most obvious draw got there, as well as some less obvious draws which still got a good price to chase.
This check-call, check-call, donk-jam line from V is very rarely a bluff, even if we've seen V bet pot as a bluff with missed straight draws when the flush comes in. If V has something like KQo with one spade, hero can still have all the nut flushes, some wheels, as well as sets and top 2, hands that a lot of players just can't fold, even when the obvious flush draw comes in. V donk-jamming as a bluff with KQo when hero takes this line would seem extremely unlikely.
If V had the betting lead when he bluffed river in those earlier pots, like, he raised pre, then c-bet flop, barreled turn, and barreled river, that's different than check-calling flop and turn, then donk-jamming river. One's a somewhat reasonable triple-barrel bluff. The other is almost always super-thick value.
Last edited by docvail; 01-03-2024 at 03:13 PM.
