More pre, bet flop or xr flop rather than xc. Definitely xr turn and never ever fold. Call river because it's cheap and everything bricked but it's not an exciting spot. On most rivers AA is good enough to stack off, you unblock Kx which is the most likely stuff to pay you off, so you should build a pot. Calling 40% bets is not enough for your hand that is very strong. You're beat only by KJ and 66 on the turn, why are you afraid?
Assuming this hand is $500 effective. Please bet flop. Save check/calling in this spot for hands that it makes the most sense to do it with, like your lowest kicker top pairs (Maybe KTs/K9s, fraction of your KQ) and 2nd/middle pair hands like QQ/AJ/QJ. You have a good hand on this flop that can get multiple streets of value, maybe even stacks in if played aggressively, so play it aggressively unless you have very good reason not to!
Turn: I'm feeling a shove here to be honest. Yes, KJ/JJ/66 beat us, but not a lot of combinations are coming out of the woodwork here beating us in comparison to the many KQ/KT/Kx, some Jx, and other draws he could bet turn with. I just kinda don't feel we should play bluff catch lines with an overpair on this type of board as a general rule, just because we're inducing bluffs (or playing in the same vein) against a player population that just simply isn't aggressive enough with either bluffs or in going for thin value & owning themselves against our hand.
River: We see a somewhat meaningful progression in LJ's bet sizing, even if it's merely $50 more every street and a smaller proportion of the pot. We need only win 21% of the time to make calling profitable so it's pretty frustrating. Jx hands probably check back and take their showdown value a lot of the time, so we're left against hands that beat us already (KJ, sets), hands that rivered us (Kx), then hands we aren't sure whether or not V actually has in the draws/air. Tough spot, I admit I find myself calling in these type of ones more than I care to admit. No reads I prob should fold this playing against the 2/5 population I'm used to.
Reads would help. Definitely bigger pre. Probably $50.
Flop depends on player types, but I'm usually c-betting. As played, call river. We are too strong to fold and our hand is under-repped. If he has a K, so be it.
V is a mawg late 30 early 40s. I had been sitting at the table for an hour. He was tight pre didn’t really get out of line. I felt like he was a solid player. This was 1pm on a Wednesday.
I felt like he had 2 pair on the turn but I had outs & he could just have Kx & i was under repped. I felt like the K River was the worst card for me ?
In a normal game, before the flop, you would want to isolate a limper by raising to something like 4x, maybe even 5x. Here you have what amounts to a blind bet on the button, with absolute position for the rest of the hand, who ought to be calling opens and isos fairly widely. I would put another straddle, maybe even two, to get some fold equity; so our iso could be anything from 5x to 7x the straddle. I personally would raise to $60 in this spot. (I would do this with all my isos, playing QJs the same as AA and not split my range up until and unless someone three-bets.)
I like the check-call on the flop. The pot is multiway and we are in worst position, so we are going to be checking a lot. I would likely check with range. Our hand does not need much protection, given that our As blocks most flush draws, we block QT's OESD, and we block a lot of gutshot broadway draws. We need some strength in our check-calling bucket.
And as the hand evolves, we want to keep the villain's bluffs in their range and not reduce their continues to two-pair+ hands that beat us. Check-call is good.
On the river, we are handicapped by that spade ace in our hand. The villain has far fewer missed flush draws than they otherwise might, so their hand is weighted towards value, and a lot of that value range is going to be KX combos. I think we fold here (but without the spade ace we call and expect to win often enough to make money).
In a normal game, before the flop, you would want to isolate a limper by raising to something like 4x, maybe even 5x. Here you have what amounts to a blind bet on the button, with absolute position for the rest of the hand, who ought to be calling opens and isos fairly widely. I would put another straddle, maybe even two, to get some fold equity; so our iso could be anything from 5x to 7x the straddle. I personally would raise to $60 in this spot. (I would do this with all my isos, playing QJs the same as AA and not split my range up until and unless someone three-bets.)
I like the check-call on the flop. The pot is multiway and we are in worst position, so we are going to be checking a lot. I would likely check with range. Our hand does not need much protection, given that our As blocks most flush draws, we block QT's OESD, and we block a lot of gutshot broadway draws. We need some strength in our check-calling bucket.
And as the hand evolves, we want to keep the villain's bluffs in their range and not reduce their continues to two-pair+ hands that beat us. Check-call is good.
On the river, we are handicapped by that spade ace in our hand. The villain has far fewer missed flush draws than they otherwise might, so their hand is weighted towards value, and a lot of that value range is going to be KX combos. I think we fold here (but without the spade ace we call and expect to win often enough to make money).
i like your take because it validates me post flop but its curious how everybody had different advice.
I'm in minority as I don't have too much an issue with preflop sizing. You'e at 3.5x the effective BB. Sure there are limpers......but more and more emerging theory is that we shouldn't do as others do in live setting and betting more than the 2-3x BB.
But there's definitely an argument for bigger sizing.
We should be betting flop here. Probably around 1/3.
But if we check flop and turn....we should likely c/r one of them. Be it the flop or the turn.
We aren't deep enough at 50bb to try to play a normal multiway strategy where we want to keep pot small. We are fine getting it all in here.
River as played, I'd fold with As and call without.
I think I shrug call to less than half pot river. If he went 3/4 pot I can probably find a fold.
I don't mind how postflop was played. Imo the most frequent mistake I see from hands posted here is c-betting flops multiway.
Pre I would go $50. In the games I play 4x + 1 straddle for each limper will fold out some garbage hands that have equity, bit I still get a lot of limp callers and cold callers.
I like small sizing in unopened pots. I might go 25 when straddle is 10 if the table is fairly solid. But if the table is weaker and looser, especially the straddle, I like to size up to 30 or 40. In the same way, I generally think limpers are going to be weaker players and I want to exploit them with a large sizing.
V is a mawg late 30 early 40s. I had been sitting at the table for an hour. He was tight pre didn’t really get out of line. I felt like he was a solid player. This was 1pm on a Wednesday.
I felt like he had 2 pair on the turn but I had outs & he could just have Kx & i was under repped. I felt like the K River was the worst card for me ?
If you had put this in the OP, I'd say snap fold river.
