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2/5/10 with 99 3b by shortie 2/5/10 with 99 3b by shortie

05-01-2013 , 12:55 PM
The game is 2/5 with a 10 mandatory straddle which is good and bad. Bad because stacks aren't that deep ($500 max) but good because people play horribly in straddled pots IMO.

I open raise 99 to 40 from MP...Asian guy with 325 3b to 135 from BTN folds back to me.

I just got moved and only hand I have seen him play I opened JJ to 20 (straddle wasn't on yet) 20 mins ago...got called by BTN and Villain called in BB. Flop T94 I bet 40...BTN flats, Villain c/r to 145...I fold BTN jams with 44 and Villain stacks off full stack with ATss. So he clearly overvalues TP type hands, etc.

My inclination is 99 is too weak but what is our shoving range here given that our only read is Villain is probably gambly and baddish but also is on 32.5bb effectively.
2/5/10 with 99 3b by shortie Quote
05-01-2013 , 01:27 PM
This raise is quite large in comparison to your sample hand, but perhaps 'cleverly' sized to give you the illusion of fold equity? I assume no one else called your raise ...

This could so be AK/AQ or 22-JJ. I find it hard to believe that a 'gambly' person would raise this much with AA/KK/QQ.

Giving a little bit more credit to him here, if you range from AA-88 with AK/AQ you are towards the middle of that if you count combinations, but behind it if you look strictly at the hand face value.

Most ppl have a 'weak' point between 88-JJ in these spots against unknown opponents. I still find the bet size to be interesting ... most ppl with AA/KK would want to make it more attractive to call/4-bet into, this is not the case here IMO unless he thought he would gain mulitple opponents with a smaller raise. Thats information you dont have as of yet. Probably a fold .. GL
2/5/10 with 99 3b by shortie Quote
05-01-2013 , 02:23 PM
Shove. Not going to fold 99 here against an aggressive Asian short stacked at 32.5bbs.
2/5/10 with 99 3b by shortie Quote
05-01-2013 , 02:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai
Shove. Not going to fold 99 here against an aggressive Asian short stacked at 32.5bbs.
IS this the bottom of your shoving range? 99+ AQ+, something like this?
2/5/10 with 99 3b by shortie Quote
05-01-2013 , 03:35 PM
That's a really big 3bet sizing (for live at least). I would think this means he just want's to take the hand down. The only problem is that you are flipping against half or his range and crushed against the other half.

If he was half decent I could see him 3betting smaller pocket pairs as he isn't really getting the set mining odds and his hand could likely be best. However a lot of players are just gonna call with those hands. I'd fold here and get his money later as you really aren't doing well against his range.

And just an fyi, it doesn't matter than he is 32bb deep, he probably still is playing without regard to bb stacks, so that 3bet means exactly the same as a 3bet 120bb deep. Don't outlevel yourself.
2/5/10 with 99 3b by shortie Quote
05-01-2013 , 07:12 PM
Stacks matter because fish are more likely to 3-bet medium strength hands lightly when they are short stacked versus when they are deep.

99 has 41% equity against range of 88+, AQ+. If there is any chance that the stuck aggro Asian fish is 3-betting lighter than this, then this shove with 99 is mandatory.

Having lots of experience with stuck aggro Asian fish, I say this is a snap-shove.
2/5/10 with 99 3b by shortie Quote
05-01-2013 , 07:14 PM
Raidion,

You said it yourself that Villain's 3-bet looked FOS.

So why are we folding 99 against an aggro stuck short-stacked Asian fish who is likely FOS?

FWIW, I would heavily discount Villain having QQ+ because of his FOS 3-bet size.
2/5/10 with 99 3b by shortie Quote
05-01-2013 , 07:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69
IS this the bottom of your shoving range? 99+ AQ+, something like this?
I probably shove 88+/AQ+/AJs here.
2/5/10 with 99 3b by shortie Quote

      
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