Hero (~$500): Early 20s WG. On a pretty dire downswing and it's making me have some trouble feeling comfortable in hands. Like calling with a flush that I probably should have raised and losing to a boat anyway.

V (covers): 30s WG pretty normal not much info. Induced some loose action when he squeezed twice, but he had it.

OTTH

V opens UTG for $16 and hero in MP 3bets to $55 with QQ. V's UTG range should be wide enough to make this correct, but I'm prob folding to a 4bet. V calls

Flop (110): J 4 2 r

V checks. Hero bets $60. V calls after some time.

Turn (230): T

Check/check. I elect to check here because he shouldn't have any unpaired A or K (In retrospect this might not be true for AK) and JT just improved to 2 pair.

River (230): T
V checks. Hero bets 150. I think this line looks like it could be AK and might get a loose call from suited Jx or even a PP. He also should never be checking a hand stronger than mine, especially when the river pairs the board. After a while V raises to $380, basically putting me all in. Hero???

Do I just lol fold and imagine he somehow thinks I bet enough rivers to take this line with JJ/JT/TT? He has to be getting out of line if he doesn't have it, which also seems unlikely.

What is the villain's 3bet call range pf? Answer that question and you'll answer your question on the river.

The reality is that all you beat is a bluff at this point. Is he bluffing 24% of the time? My guess is probably not. Therefore, I'd fold. You were better off checking behind. There was little that you beat that was going to call your bet on the river that was also going to call a 3 bet pf.

Well no idea what his 3bet calling range is. Just bad reg vibes and some idea of his opening range and I saw him stack with AK 50BB deep, but in general it's not like I expect to instantly lose whenever I have QQ and it comes J high. Normally people just call with w/e they raised with and I don't do much light 3betting.

Would I only go 1 street with AA or KK? I know I can't expect Jx or PP that may or may not be in his calling range to snap me off too often, but it seemed like a lock when he checked river after I checked turn. What would make V risk a check behind with the razor thin range of plausible hands that beat me?

OK, let's start off with what his initial raising range is. What would that be?

Like 77+/suited broadway. I've seen 99 and he's been fairly active other than that from ep


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Just fold. Because your line looks like it could be a bluff or thin value, he's going to need no SDV to bluff here. So you don't just need him to be running an unlikely bluff OTR, laying you a pretty good price to call, you need him to have played a no pair hand on J42r as x/c, x. That seems really unlikely to start off with, then you need him to have checked river, again with no SDV, relying on you to bet? I mean once in a blue moon he can show up with AK and that can sort of make sense I guess, but mostly he's going to have made some kind of nut hand somewhere and not have known how to play it. JJ and JTs are likely.

Do you see him calling down 99 under these conditions? If not, it is pretty much a fold. TP would call to see if he was good.

Yeah, pretty much. His line makes no sense, but it's way more likely that he just has it somehow. I've done some payoffs this week that I'm really unhappy with, but people are just hitting flops harder than me.

Anyway, I can't find the fold button and I lose to TT.

Well 99 is in a bluff-catch scenario, so he never has any of the made hands I was trying to get value from. He basically needs to have nothing for me to win, which is next to impossible. I have seen enough weird stuff in my games though that I could almost see those hands showing up, but I know I can't spaz factor my way out of this one.

I think it does. Ask yourself if he has the board pretty locked down with JJ/JT/TT how likely is it he can bet and get called? Then of those hands that would call, aren't you likely to bet most of them on the river and even add some bluffs.