$2/3 at the Bike in LA.

I've been at the table with Villain for about 3 hours. He's very loose passive preflop, playing at least 60% of hands. I've seen him call at least two huge overbets with naked flush draws, not to mention calling with gutshots galore even when the odds aren't even close to right. He's been getting lucky and pissing other players off ("how can you call that?!" "I had to go allin, it's the only way to make you fold!" etc). Dude loves chasin' dem draws.

My image is fairly standard TAG if anyone is playing attention.

Villain is UTG ($300)
Hero is MP ($300)

Villian straddles to $6
Folds to Hero who makes it $18 w/JJ.
One call in LP and Villain calls.

Flop ($54) - 985
Villain checks, Hero bets $40, LP folds.

Villain thinks for a bit and then shows his cards to the player next to him. The guy looks down and says to villain, "I don't know, it's up to you."

This makes me think draws or weak pairs are basically the entirety of Villain's range. He calls.

Turn ($134) - 7
Villain bets $35.

He could certainly have me beat with a straight or two pair, but a bluff is also somewhat likely. That, combined with the fact that I can hit a T for the 2nd nuts, sways me to call. I mean, I'm getting almost 5 to 1 here.

River ($204) - 7

Villain checks fairly quickly. Hero?

All comments on any street/thinking is appreciated.

I think this is a good spot for a bet/fold of around $80.

Fine to call the turn due to ridiculous small bet, honestly I would just check behind here, would hate to bet/fold in this spot imo. Thinking the easy call on the turn was so we could get to a cheap showdown on the river, smells like two pair though

Shoulda raised turn imo. You led pre, cbet flop, now he's throwing out a weak blocking bet.

As played just check behind.

Check behind, I don't think you're ever getting called by worse here, or folding better.

Yeah, this was my main area of concern after the hand was over. At the time I was thinking his turn bet was most likely coming from a two pair hand, which wants to bet but doesn't want to invest a lot of money on a 4 straight board like that. I'm wondering if a raise to $95-100 gets him to fold better (two pair) hands -*and if it gets called by worse (random tens maybe)?

The river is close - he's never folding a straight or a 7, but a bet MIGHT make him fold two pair. However, I'm defintely never getting called by worse.

I ended up checking behind and he showed T8 for middle pair and missed straight.

This for sure.

As played I like the bet/fold as well... Though I'm surprised nobody commented on the small preflop raise. The live straddle makes this a $2/3/6 table, you should raise more than 3x the bb/straddlebet. 3x is just a pot-builder that usually gets you a bunch of callers and thats not quite what you're trying to do with JJ in mp here.

Dude, thanks for bringing this to my attention. I usually raise to $12 or $15 in this game (seems to be the table standard and does a good job of narrowing, but not eliminating, the field), and for some reason I've always thought "well, I'll add $6 for the straddle." What do you think a reasonable open would be considering we've got $11 in the pot when someone straddles?

A couple questions for those in favor of a bet/fold on the river:

1) What worse hands are calling a river bet? We beat TT and 9x, but it's so unlikely for him to have either those hands given how hesitant he was on the flop. We also beat 8x and 5x, but I really don't see either of those hands calling given the scary board and how much I obviously like my hand.

2) What better hands are we hoping to fold out? There's no way he's folding a straight (he'd bet that OTR anyway) or a 7 here.

I seriously considered a bet/fold at the time, but I couldn't think of a good reason to do it. Does anyone see something I'm missing here?

I also like a smallish bet/fold. The bet/fold move is still one I'm not very good at, especially considering the bigger the bet the more the chance is that we simply can't fold to a re-raise a lot of the time (i.e. nearing pot commitment). I might just bet $50 so long as villain isn't the type to sense the weakness of that bet and try something tricky.

TT/9x, maybe 8x and strange counterfeited two pair hands will all consider calling (the first two are insta-calling and could have easily played the hand this way).

We're not folding better hands, but we're not trying to.

Man, I really don't think TT or 9x are in his range after his behavior on the flop. His reluctance to call and his neighbor's reaction both indicated definite weakness - no way did he have an overpair or top pair.

After thinking it over for a few days, I think a raise/fold on the turn might've been the best way to play this. The $35 bet seems pretty weak (possibly an inducer bet, but more likely just a blocker). I'd probably get value from draws and could comfortably fold to a reraise. What if I'd made it $100 on the turn and folded to a shove?

You found the answer here. If this was a decent villain, we would be behind on the turn. This villain is somewhat braindead, and thus a raise/fold would be perfect on turn. Vs villains like this one, poker becomes nothing more than make TPTK+ and go. (and hope games like this stay alive and well) I havent seen that many players that bad in a while, though i play in Vegas where the games are less soft than about anywhere else around.

this maybe even less 60ish, he has 9x, 8x a lot here

Given that we have a TAG image, I don't like a bet/fold vs this guy.

As much as I hate losing value, I check behind on the river because this villain is capable of c/r allin with worse or the nuts, and there is no sensible size we can value bet (to be called by a worse hand) that doesn't immediately give away the strength of our hand. Its hard for us to rep anything other than an overpair. Meanwhile there is 4 to a straight on a paired board.

In future hands, once we see what he has, I might consider value betting lighter against this guy.