Quote:
Originally Posted by skillz_2106
... my question is whether or not I do well enough against V2s range to go after the side pot and hope this is one of those times I bink a J and win the main, too.
Yeah, I'd call.
Your odds in the side pot are 1:1.
Side pot is 0 (dry) until V2 puts chips into it. Then you have to call off the matching # of number of chips. So.. 1:1.
That means you need 50% equity. You're probably at least 60/40. The conservative range you posted suggests 58%. So let's use that.
The main pot is something like 121 + 121 + 43 + 3 + 3 + 2 = $293 when it comes back to you, so you're getting 293:78 = 3.75:1.
Given that you have nearly 20% equity against QQ (20% equity is the same as 4:1), that's probably pretty close to break-even vs V1. Once you include V2 and his possible over pairs + over cards with equity against JJ, you get to around 16% equity, or 5:1, so the main pot by itself is likely not profitable (again, you're getting 3.75:1 but probably have ~5:1).
EV of main pot: 371 * 0.16 (our guess of your equity) = 59 - 78 (your call) = -19
EV of side pot: 302 * 0.58 (our guess of your equity) = 175 - 151 (your call) = 24
Total EV = +5.
Yeah, I figured it was pretty close to break-even. And +5 is break-even. I would call. Better to give action than nit fold, and I think there is a decent chance it's +EV and at least break-even. I also think V2 could be wider than you're guessing, and calling is also more fun than folding.
Also, the guy verbalized QQ before you made your play. He probably does have QQ, but that's also not 100% certain.