We are only one orbit into the session. Villain is a white geezer perhaps mid-to-late 60's, wearing glasses and reading a book on astrophysics. He has over $1500. Perhaps in contrast to his profile, he has raised four of the last nine hands. He is permanently poker-faced and doesn't talk. He raises UTG to $15.
Hero ($500) 3bets to $50 with AKcc UTG+1
Everyone folds except for Villain who 4-bets to $150.
Extremely grim spot, makes me want to puke. I probably like fold the least of the three options, but I couldn't really blame you for laying it down. 60+ guy 4betting UTG big is insane strong looking obviously.
That being said there's a chance he's fos, he opened a lot so far and sits on a huge stack, which is uncharacteristic for tight old men. I'd flat to keep positional advantage and his potential spew hands in and only fold on the worst flops like 89Thhh etc. vs jam.
You are not deep enough to call. It's either Jam or Fold. In a 2/3 game to have a $1,500 stack he has to be sun running. If I am in a game where someone is sun running, I tend to stay out of their way. I see it all the time, people getting stacked one after another to the guy running like god.
Fold is worst option imo. Can't decide between call or shove so prob just do whatever you would do if you had aces or kings. Shove is ez and def not wrong but doesn't leave the dude a lot of room to make mistakes (though you will see dudes 4bet folding AK and QQ every now and then).
Also, did that mfer legit show up with a book on god damn astrophysics? Did he also hit you with the "Hmm, yes, indubitably" while stroking his beard when you raised him?
Never folding. It sounds like he’s overly aggro. We wanna keep bluffs in and we don’t mind playing in position with spr of 1 with this hand. Things also depend on your image. Mainly call and never fold.
Not sure what the astrophysics book means, except that he's probably settling in for a long session, and you'd have a chance to win your money back.
So if you're getting some vibes he's a bit aggro (or trying out this tough guy style) then shove in his face and get ready to reload.
But maybe he's just hit a hot streak of good hands and the standard population read applies. I.e this is AA and KK.
I might just sneaky flat preflop. If it goes multiway, whatever, our hand plays fine multiway, and we might even have a manageable SPR. Otherwise, it's possible someone else goes after this guy and all the dead money and we can backraise.
As played, I probably sigh fold. People are allowed to get hit with the deck for a few hands in a row, it happens. Overall, this is an old guy who is reading a fricken book at the table, so until I'm shown otherwise, he probably just has it.
Yah this is a tough spot when I run the equities even with JJ in his range.
I’m really leaning towards having position be the final determinant here.
I might just say sneaky flat has tons of merit in this spot when we run down various scenarios.
Also I think a lot depends on outside factors like how well we play after being stacked. It’s never a huge mistake to get it in pre here even against a tight range just might be optimal.
Never folding. It sounds like he’s overly aggro. We wanna keep bluffs in and we don’t mind playing in position with spr of 1 with this hand. Things also depend on your image. Mainly call and never fold.
Real question is do we always jam AKo
on what planet does V sound overly aggro? V is reading a book IE: not looking to get involved unless its with the best of hands expecially UTG.
on what planet does V sound overly aggro? V is reading a book IE: not looking to get involved unless its with the best of hands expecially UTG.
My husband reads books at the table, and he's very much a LAG. The guy has raised four times in nine hands and has now raised us -- he's either a bit aggro or sun-running.
This is where Bayesian Priors come into play, and if you've not read that section from Playing the Player (by Ed Miller) on this, it's possibly the best chapter I've ever read in any poker book, and I read a lot of poker books.
What might out priors be for 1-3, 2-3 deep stacked 4 bets. Perhaps something like 80% of players 4 bet with only AA, KK. 10% bet JJ, AQo+, and 10% might be LAG, and include things like random Aces, or other strong blocking.
The question is how much does open raising 4 times in 9 hands move these percentage likelihood of the type of player he is? Probably not as much as you would imagine, since a) 4 bets are quite different than just any old raise b) Sample Size: We only have 9 hands of history, and we all have had a round where half our hands are open raise worthy.
Given all that it's a fold.
Last edited by hitchens97; 01-25-2023 at 03:52 PM.
