1knl live, can't remember actual effective stacks as this was a 5 way pot. However, I was playing about $2k when the hand started BB covers.

I open for $60 with QQ in MP, three callers including blinds.

Flop KK9

Checked around.

Turn Q

BB bets $135. Don't have a lot of history with him but from what I do have he seems TAG.

Hero??



Is this always a raise?

Flatting looks a little weak on my part, the board is scary, maybe Button will make a play? And I'm sure BB is firing again on most rivers.

On the other hand, I think he has TJ or Kx enough here that he'll be willing to get it in?

I'm pretty sure I butchered this hand by just flatting, wanted to get some other opinions though.



Also what do you think about this situation if I hold KQ on this board instead of QQ? In that case I have the board so crushed that he rarely has anything that he won't shut down with on the river if I raise?

Flat turn/raise river looks insanely strong whereas raise turn/bomb river makes it at least somewhat possible you're trying to run a bluff. Plus you guys are 200bb deep so you want to start building a pot right away.

Bet flop call turn

tbh its the other way round

It doesn't matter when you raise, it will look insanely strong anyways. I like calling the turn and raising the river just because it's typically a guaranteed way to get more money in and you won't shut down other players behind you.

I think BB's range is something like this:

FULL HOUSES (6 combos total)
KQ - 2 combos
K9s - 1 combo
99 - 3 combos

STRAIGHT (4 combos total)
JTs - 4 combos

TRIPS (12 combos total)
AK - 8 combos
KJs - 2 combos
KTs - 2 combos

TWO PAIR (4 combos total)
AQ - 4 combos

TWO PAIR WITH GUTTER (8 combos total)
QJs - 1 combo
QTs - 1 combo
J9s - 3 combos
T9s - 3 combos

NAKED SPADE DRAW (about 15 combos?)

When you raise on the turn, you maximize your value against [99 JTs AK], as those hands are slightly more likely to pay off a turn raise than a river raise. [99 JTs AK] is nominally 15 combos, but we should probably treat it as less than that, since BB would frequently squeeze with AK preflop. So let's call it 11 combos.

Already, the value of raising is starting to look pretty slim to me, as [99 JTs AK] are so strong that they will frequently pay off a river raise anyway, so you don't gain that much. And it's only 11 combos.

If your opponent is incapable of laying down a flush draw or a pair+gutter on the turn, then the value of raising increases dramatically. But I fear that the population of players who calls a big turn raise with just a draw is pretty small in 2011.

Raising the turn doesn't really look like a draw to me at all. I guess a bad player might convince himself that a turn raise might be a draw, if he had [99 JTs AK] and was in love with his hand and was looking for any excuse to call. But such a player is probably paying off a river raise anyway, so I don't think you gain much.

When you flat, you get much more value from all the other 31 combos. You give them a chance to hit their draw and stack them on the river, you give them a chance to bluff at the river, and you under-rep your hand, making them much more likely to call a river bet (where they would have probably just folded to a turn raise). And, best of all, flatting gives the other two players a chance to squeeze with some crappy draw that they would have just folded to a raise.

I'd call the turn.

Edit: I think BB would probably call a turn min-raise with most of his range, but I don't think it's worth it at all. A min-raise shuts out callers behind you and gives away a ton of information about your hand strength, reducing the amount of money you can make on the river.

Villain's gotta be pretty bad to be getting in JT or Kx here, right (maybe that's the case, you didn't provide any player info)? I mean... you have like the bottom of your value range for checking flop and raising turn (basically just QQ and KK). If he's got a clue you're insanely polarized as soon as you raise the turn so he might as well have a random 9 if he wants to continue. Flatting keeps your range pretty wide and gives him the option to bluff/value cut/hero call/whatever on the river.

If Villain is a monkey/level 1 thinker, then of course feel free to pile chips in as quickly as possible since he'll never find a fold with the hands you described and he's got them a lot.