Quote:
Originally Posted by maromb78
The reasoning for the call was much the same as most people said. His line didn't make sense. While most people said that this is a fold they all agreed that his play was weird and didn't make sense. Responding to posts on line is more difficult than being at the table in person. So I think most folks if they had been there would have made the call, for the exception of those who said this is a straight fold.
It's an interesting hand. His line does or doesn't make sense depending on our read and what range we give him when he raises pre from MP.
In your spot on the river, I'm thinking to myself, "okay, what hands am I losing to that play this way?"
Top pair and better would most likely continue betting the turn, unless it's a really weak top pair that's worried about kicker problems. So, maybe QJ or Q9 slows down on turn, unless he thinks we're raising pre with all our KQ combos on the BTN. So I could see him having QJ or Q9 on the turn, but the river over-bet doesn't really comport to a scared QX just trying to get to showdown.
65s is the nuts on the river. I could see 65s raising pre, c-betting flop, kind of large, just hoping to take the pot down, then getting scared when we call, picking up the OESD on the turn and deciding to just check for pot control, then making up for missed value by over-betting the river.
So on the river, the only hand that makes complete sense is 65s, unless V is doing weird / fancy stuff like checking turn to induce with a big hand, hoping to get in a check raise on turn or get a light call on the river. So, maybe this is QQ/TT/QT, or maybe T7 / Q7, but I don't think Q7 or T7 play this way pre or on flop.
If V bet $60, I might hero-call, because we took such a defensive line. JT is going to be one of the better hands in our range on the river, and we block QJ/QT and TT.
But when he over-bets river after we check back turn, it looks more like making up for missed value on the turn, not getting overly creative with air, because a bluff doesn't need to be that big to get through fairly often. A bigger bet may look more bluffy, and get called more often.
In his spot, with A5, I might just check and take my showdown value, but if I thought I needed to bluff, I'd probably just bet $60, when we're only starting out $350 deep. It's just too much to risk $125 on a bluff that isn't going to fold out many QX or TX combos if our opponents are sticky or think we're bluffy. We're really just hoping to fold out PP's like 88-99 that got sticky, and better AX, which is mostly just AJ or A9.
Kudos to you for finding the call, and being correct, but honestly, I think folding here would be fine. If we're not folding to some bluffs, we're just calling too often. I think we could get here with enough QX and better, often enough that we can fold JT.