In the real-life hand that happened, I tanked for a good 5 minutes at least, before I decided to eventually make the call, expecting most of the time to be drawing dead to a set.
Here's why I decided to call: While it is true that the only hand that makes sense for him to be doing this on is 88 and 22, even
that didn't make that much sense.
I just bet 3/4 of the pot on the turn. Let's assume that I was in his shoes, and that I had 222... It's a drawless board. You can re-evaluate if something comes on the turn to change that, but you're not getting any more money from me if I fold. The most profitable thing to do here would probably either make a re-raise with really good pot odds (like a min-raise) to call, or to smooth call and try to get another street of value out of me.
It just didn't add up. It didn't seem like a bet that wanted a call, it seemed like a bet that wanted a fold... sure, he could have been doing the Vizzini thing, where he bet like it was a bluff to get someone to call... but just as *he's* unknown to me, *I'm* unknown to him. He'd have to assume that I'm a Level 3 thinker at least - in a table with a lot of level 2 thinkers.
I've also seen, at this table, people stack off with JQ on a J-high board. So, I'm not quite sure I'm going to be able to limit him to
only a set here. Here's the range I put him on. AA (possible he could have limped to trap?) AK, 88, 22, KJ, KQ, K8, K2. Against the range
as a whole I figured I had at least 37% equity. (Pokerstove says 46%).
Combined with the weird feeling I got from the bet, I decided to call.
He had 75o. He was bluffing with air. Complete air.
Later on, he lost four buy-ins that night doing the same exact thing.
I think I found my new favorite fish.